• Citigroup on Wednesday, November 30, forecasted global growth to slow to below 2% next year, echoing similar projections by major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan.
• Strategists at the brokerage cited continued challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war — which skyrocketed inflation to decades-high levels and triggered aggressive policy tightening — as reasons behind the outlook.
• "We see global performance as likely being plagued by 'rolling' country-level recessions through the year ahead," said Citi strategists, led by Nathan Sheets.
• While the Wall Street investment bank expects the US economy to grow by 1.9% this year, it is seen more than halving to 0.7% in 2023.
• It expects, year-on-year, US inflation at 4.8% next year, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's terminal rate seen between 5.25% and 5.5%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The OPEC+ decision to hold its Dec. 4 meeting virtually signals little likelihood of a policy change, sources told Reuters on Wednesday, Nov. 30, as the group assesses the impact of the looming Russian oil-price cap on the market.
• A virtual meeting puts the focus on the pending European Union deal over the price cap on Russian oil, as well as a Dec. 5 deadline imposed by the bloc for a full embargo on purchases of Moscow's seaborne crude.
• "OPEC+ would rather sit on the bench at this time and assess the outcome of what happens on Monday," one source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.
• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, also meet as China's COVID-19 lockdowns weigh on demand and prices. Still, oil on Wednesday gained support from hopes of a Chinese demand recovery.
• OPEC+ had been expected to convene in Vienna for only the second time since the pandemic.

(Source: Reuters)

• Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, and Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, on Friday (November 25), broke ground for a multimillion US dollar boutique resort development in Lilliput, St. James.
• The adults-only, all-inclusive hotel will provide approximately 451 additional rooms, including over-the-water bungalow accommodations aimed at attracting thousands more new tourists to Jamaica.
• Additionally, the Spanish resort’s construction will see the employment of over 1,000 local skilled labourers, locally, and create more than 600 new permanent jobs in the tourism sector.
• The project is the first of a series of programmed developments for owners, the RCD Hotels and AIC Hotel Group that will also be partnering with the Government to provide housing solutions for their workers. “If we are truly interested in building an excellent [tourism] product, then we must not only build rooms for visitors, but we also have to build rooms for the workers, and the Government has a key role to play in ensuring that we have houses; homes for the people who work in the industry,” the Prime Minister outlined.

(Source: JIS)

• The United States (US) Government will increase its investment in Jamaica with some US$34Mn committed to violence reduction, combatting human trafficking, cybersecurity, energy security, and initiatives to boost the economy.
• Details were provided by Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Ambassador Victoria Nuland, at the US-Jamaica Strategic Dialogue held recently at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, downtown Kingston.
• The US has also dedicated US$3.5Mn to strengthen Jamaica’s cybersecurity capacity and position the country to be a leader in the region, while through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), US$20mMn will be invested to boost the economy and drive local economic growth to ensure young Jamaicans have better opportunities.
• This increased investment to reduce crime and violence and other social factors could positively impact Jamaica’s Long-term Political Risk Index score which currently stands at 63.9 out of 100 below the Caribbean average of 64.5.

(Source: JIS)

• BP Plc, a British multinational oil and gas company, will market Guyana's share of crude oil produced over the next year from two offshore production platforms, the South American country's Ministry of Natural Resources has indicated.
• Guyana is home to one of the largest oil discoveries in the last decade, with about 11 billion barrels found to date. A consortium that controls the country's crude output expects to pump 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, up from an expected 380,000 bpd at year-end.
• The London-based oil company agreed to market the state's share produced from the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity platforms at no charge per barrel, according to a ministry statement on Thursday, November 24. It replaces a Saudi Aramco trading unit, which previously held the contract.
• The government also recently said it would auction 14 offshore blocks to increase output by adding more oil producers. Guyana has not yet disclosed a timetable but indicated it could hold the auction by May.
• BP will market crude to refiners, provide benchmark and performance comparisons, and help the government understand the behaviour and yields of the Liza blend, the ministry said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions expects real GDP growth of 6.9% in Panama in 2022, slowing to 4.4% in 2023. While the 2022 forecast is down modestly from 7.0% previously, due to slightly disappointing Q2 2022 data, Fitch maintains its view that copper mining and Panama Canal-related services will boost GDP, along with strong private consumption.
• However, going into 2023 growth is expected to slow moderately, as external demand for Panamanian services eases due to a global slowdown, and private consumption growth falls somewhat as base effects fade.
• Private consumption’s contribution to overall GDP will fall from 3.7 percentage points (pp) in 2022 to 2.1pp in 2023, mostly due to base effects. Despite this slowdown, the outlook for private consumption remains upbeat, with government food subsidies still in place and moderate inflation (at only 1.6% y-o-y in October), which will support household purchasing power.
• Net exports will also be a major driver of growth in 2023, contributing 0.4pp to the headline figure, from -0.4pp in 2022, as goods and services export remain strong and imports moderate. Service exports have driven headline growth in recent months, with the tourism sector rebounding almost to pre-COVID levels by mid-2022, while Panama Canal services have also been robust.
• Risks to growth are weighted to the downside. Panama experienced large-scale protests over the cost of living in the summer of 2022. Notably, the protests involved roadblocks and closures, disrupting commercial activity. As such Fitch sees a high risk of further protests in early 2023 if the government does not address remaining concerns about wages and food costs, which would impact output and potentially investor confidence. 
• Another major risk is that the economic downturns in the US and other key tourism markets are more severe than Fitch anticipated. Similarly, goods exports – especially copper – depend heavily on demand from Mainland China, and could disappoint if China rebounds more slowly than expected.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Britain will change its rulebook to allow banks to take more risks to help to keep the City of London's status as a leading global financial centre, a government minister said on Tuesday, November 29.
• The City of London was largely cut off from the European Union by Brexit and faces greater competition from centres like Paris and Frankfurt, as well as longstanding rivals like New York and Singapore.
• The EU will next week set out a new law to force banks in the bloc to shift some of their euro derivatives clearing from London to Frankfurt.
• City minister Andrew Griffith said a new financial services bill now being approved in parliament will bring financial rule books up to date, make regulators nimbler, and cut insurance capital buffers while maintaining high standards.
• "The overall thrust of things is to allow more risk. You get a reward from taking risks, you shouldn't be risk off, we just need to manage that in an appropriate way," Griffith told a Financial Times event.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices jumped by 3% on Tuesday, November 29 on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls after rare protests in Chinese cities over the weekend.
• Brent crude futures gained $2.50, or 3%, to $85.69 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.98, or 2.6%, to $79.22.
• Chinese health officials on Tuesday said the country plans to speed up COVID-19 vaccinations for elderly people, aiming to overcome a key stumbling block in efforts to ease unpopular "zero-COVID" curbs.
• "The prospect of a return to normality, in an economy that is the world's largest oil importer, was enough to make oil prices jump in the first significant price rebound of the last two weeks," said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.
• Rare street protests in cities across China over the weekend were a vote against President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy and the strongest public defiance of his political career, China analysts said.

(Source: Reuters)

• For January to July 2022, Jamaica’s total spending on imports was valued at US$4,411.2 million, which represents a 33.6% increase relative to the period in 2021. This increase was largely attributable to higher imports of “Fuels and Lubricant”, “Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods” and “Consumer Goods”, which rose by 55.4%, 29.8% and 31.0%, respectively.
• Meanwhile, exports were valued at US$939.7 million which is a 2.3% increase relative to the prior period. The increase in exports was due primarily to a 61.8% increase in the value of exports of “Mineral Fuels”. The increase in total exports was influenced by the growth in re-exports which increased by US$59.4 million to US$172.7 million.
• The top five main import- partners for the period were the United States of America (USA), China, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil and Japan. Imports from these countries rose to US$2,887.8 million, 39.6% above the US$2,068.8 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. This was due largely to the higher imports of fuel from the USA and Trinidad and Tobago.
• The top five destinations for Jamaica’s exports were the USA, Puerto Rico, Canada, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom. Revenues from exports to these countries increased by 32.0% to US$752.0 million mainly as a result of higher exports of fuels to the USA. This higher outturn for exports should help with the narrowing of Jamaica’s trade deficit.

(Source: STATIN)

• The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries is reporting growth of 17.4% for the third quarter of the year, from July to September. Portfolio Minister, Hon. Pearnel Charles Jr., in making the disclosure in a release recently, said that the outturn represents six consecutive quarters of growth since the second quarter of 2021.
• “Our agriculture sector has been achieving unprecedented numbers since the start of the year, with the third quarter reflecting one of the best-performing quarters on record,” he said. Minister Charles Jr. noted that recent heavy rains associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Ian in late September did not significantly impact the overall output for the third quarter.
• “Gross output for the subsector for the third quarter of 2022 amounted to 214,599.2 tonnes, in comparison to 182,750 tonnes reaped in the similar period of 2021,” he said
• Meanwhile, the Ministry reported that the domestic crop subsector continues to perform well in response to increased investment and support, based on targeted interventions in productivity and marketing.

(Source: JIS News)