• Worries are increasing over inflation, with new Federal Reserve data showing a record-high fear over surging prices. Consumers now see inflation hitting 6.6% over the next year, according to the New York Fed’s survey in March, released Monday. That’s a 10% increase in the median expectation just over the past month and the highest level in a series that dates to 2013. 
• The survey showed that median expectations over a three-year span actually decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%, largely due to a declining outlook from those with annual household incomes below $50,000. However, uncertainty about inflation over both the one- and three-year spans showed record highs. Household spending expectations rose sharply, climbing 1.3 percentage points to 7.7%, also a new series high. 
• The data comes a day before the release of the March consumer price index, which is expected to show prices rising at an 8.4% pace over the past 12 months, according to Dow Jones estimates. If that forecast is accurate, it would be the highest number since December 1981. 
• To fight inflation, the Fed last month approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years. Additional increases are expected throughout the year as inflation runs well above the central bank’s longstanding target of 2%.

(Source: CNBC News)

• Jamaica’s tourism sector is set to benefit from new and increased airlift arrangements. Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, said that during a recent market blitz in North America, American Airlines executives confirmed as many as 17 non-stop flights per day on many major routes to Jamaica. 
• Furthermore, other airlines such as Frontier Airlines are now offering non-stop service from Miami, Atlanta and Orlando, and are looking to add two to three weekly direct flights from Denver, Colorado later this year. 
• Eurowings, Europe’s third-largest point-to-point airline, also began its inaugural trip from Frankfurt, Germany to Montego Bay’s Sangster International Airport on November 3, 2021. Germany has historically been an important market for Jamaica, with 23,000 German visitors in 2019. This figure is expected to increase significantly once Eurowings and Condor commence nonstop flights. 
• The anticipated increase in flights to Jamaica, recent actions by the CDC to repeal its risk advisory on cruise travel, as well as its lowering of Jamaica’s travel risk level to two (moderate) bode well for the island’s tourism growth prospects. These factors should help the sector to meet or exceed its target of approximately 2.45 to 2.5 million visitor arrivals and total visitor spend of about $2.9 billion in 2022, as well as the recovery back to the pre-pandemic level.

(Source: JIS and NCBCM Research)

• Mexican consumer prices rose in March to levels not seen since early 2001, and economists are saying the data suggests more interest rate hikes are likely, as the central bank has noted that the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside. 
• Citing tightening global monetary and financial conditions, as well as uncertainty and inflationary pressures linked to the war in Ukraine, the Mexican Central Bank (Banxico) raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points last month, making it the seventh straight hike. 
• The government's INEGI statistics agency reported that consumer price inflation rose 7.45% in the year through March, way more than the central bank's target of 3%, with a one-percentage-point tolerance range above and below that. Notably, the CPI was also above the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Reuters (7.36% in March, versus 7.28% in February). 
• Consequently, most central bank committee members stated that the balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation over the forecast horizon has deteriorated again and remains biased to the upside.  Upside risks to inflation include: the persistence of core inflation at high levels, external inflationary pressures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, increases in agricultural and livestock product prices and energy prices due to the recent geopolitical conflict, and cost-related pressures. 
• Nikhil Sanghani, Latin America economist at Capital Economics has indicated that persistent inflation risks, alongside the more hawkish U.S. Fed, will put pressure on Banxico to continue tightening over the coming months. It is forecasted that there will be another 50-basis-point rate hike at the bank's next monetary policy meeting scheduled for May 12 and at least a further 150 basis points of tightening in this cycle to 8.50%.

(Source: Reuters)

• Barbados and other Caribbean governments are being urged to urgently adopt an integrated risk management system as the region has been faced with a multitude of challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) president Dr. Gene Leon speaking at the opening of the Caribbean Regional Risk Conference 2022 which is being held virtually by the CDB and CCRIF SPC, thinks such an approach would help improve regional credit ratings and result in countries being able to access more affordable financing. 
• Gene said the two institutions are currently developing an integrated sovereign risk management blueprint that can be implemented into the national platform of the respective countries. 

(Source: Nation News)

• Oil settled lower on Thursday, adding to weekly losses due to uncertainty that the eurozone will be able to effectively sanction Russian energy exports and after consuming nations announced a huge release of oil from emergency reserves. 
• Prices were also pressured by fears that lockdowns in China due to a new wave of COVID-19 would slow the recovery in oil demand. 
• Brent crude futures fell 49 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $100.58 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 20 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $96.03 a barrel. In the previous session, both benchmarks plunged more than 5% to their lowest closing levels since March 16. 
• The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told a NATO meeting that new EU measures, including a ban on Russian coal, could be passed on Thursday or Friday and the bloc would discuss an oil embargo next. However, the coal ban would take full effect from mid-August, a month later than initially planned.

(Source: Reuters)

• As expectations rise that the U.S. Federal Reserve will step up its efforts to contain inflation with bigger interest rate hikes, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Thursday provided a somewhat dovish counterpoint. 
• The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by a bigger-than-usual half-a-percentage point next month and begin paring its massive balance sheet as it steps up a battle against inflation now running at more than three times the Fed's 2% goal. 
• Both Evans and Bostic have said they support the Fed's plans to tighten policy, and both have previously said they would be open to a 50 basis-point move if needed. 
• However, the voices calling for more moderation stand in contrast to those on the Fed's more hawkish wing, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who earlier on Thursday called for a rate-hike path this year that would require half-point hikes at the rest of the Fed's 2022 meetings.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica reported more than 1.5 million visitor arrivals in 2021, and total visitor spending of $2.095 billion, which were above projections of 1.5Mn and $1.9Bn, respectively. 
• Of the total 1,535,165 visitor arrivals recorded, 1,464,399 were air stopover arrivals. The U.S. was both the largest and best-performing market, accounting for 1,278,679 of air stopover arrivals in 2021. Overall, visitors’ average length of stay increased in 2021, averaging 9.1 nights as compared to 7.9 nights in 2019. 
• “The fact that we exceeded visitor arrivals and spend projections for 2021 is a clear testament to the strength and resilience of Jamaica’s tourism product as well as the excellent relationships we enjoy with our travel industry partners,” said Edmund Bartlett, Minister of Tourism, Jamaica.
• For the month of December 2021 alone, air stopover arrivals reached 223,333 or 79.4% of December 2019 levels. Tourism and infrastructure developments across the island continue to move forward which have helped the sector to retain a positive outlook in 2022. Jamaica is projecting approximately 2.45 to 2.5 million visitor arrivals with a total visitor spend of about $2.9 billion in 2022.

(Source: Travel Agent Central)

• The post-pandemic crisis and the war in Ukraine have unleashed a global inflationary wave that the countries in the CARD region have not escaped. The CARD region includes Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic. 
• According to a report by the Central American Monetary Council, as of February of this year, the Dominican Republic has the highest level of year-on-year inflation (9%), exceeding Nicaragua (7.8%), El Salvador (6.7%), Honduras (6.4%), Costa Rica (4.9%) Guatemala (3.0%) and Panama, which has the lowest rate of 2.7%. 
• Within the region, the groups “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages”, “Housing,” and “Transportation” have experienced the greatest effects of inflation due to the instability in fuel prices and the increases in the products of the basic basket. 
• The Dominican Republic Central Bank continues to implement its monetary normalisation plan to counteract external shocks on prices and contribute to the convergence of inflation to the target range. 
• On February 1, 2022, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) ordered a 50 basis point (bp) increase in the policy rate, joining other Latin American policy-makers in confronting high inflation. This brings the policy rate to 5%. The decision marks the third consecutive rate increase for the BCRD, following a 50bp hike in November and a 100bp jump in December.

 (Source: Dominica Today)

• Fitch expects that weak job growth and rising inflation in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) will increase social instability and public dissatisfaction with the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) government. 
• The T&T economy experienced several severe COVID-19 outbreaks and a national state of emergency order between May and November 2021, which limited the economic recovery to an estimated 1.1% growth after contracting 7.4% in 2020. This has weakened job growth while the current Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a spike in food and fuel prices. It is expected that these factors will increase friction within the ruling PNM government and the likelihood of public unrest in the coming quarters. 
• Inflation is expected to rise significantly in the coming months, averaging 5.5% in 2022, from 2.1% in 2021. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will most likely continue in H2 2022, which will prolong supply shortages and elevated commodity prices throughout the year. 
• Notably, Fitch Solutions revised down T&T’s Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) score to 59.0, from 60.8 previously, as it continues to rank low among other Caribbean markets. However, stronger than expected job growth and increased government stimulus, and social spending pose upside risks to its view.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The dollar surged to a nearly two-year high on Wednesday after minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting reinforced expectations of multiple half percentage-point rate increases to control soaring inflation. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, climbed to 99.7780, its strongest level since late May 2020. It was last up 0.2% at 99.70. 
• Fed officials viewed the hefty rate increases as appropriate at future meetings, especially if inflation pressures intensify, minutes showed. They would also have preferred a 50 basis point rise in the target range for the federal funds rate at the March meeting. 
• Fed officials also agreed to reduce the balance sheet by $95.0Mn per month - $60.0Bn of its Treasury holdings and $35.0Bn of mortgage-backed securities - over three months, according to the minutes of the March meeting. 
• This strengthening of the US dollar poses a challenge to countries that have a heavy import bill that is denominated in USD, as this will increase the imported inflation portion of their CPI measure

(Source: Reuters)