• The return of tourism activity in H221 will boost services exports and narrow Barbados’ current account deficit in the quarters ahead. Importantly, the island saw the resumption of cruise travel this week, which augurs well for growth in the sector. 
• The near-complete cessation of tourism activity in the final three quarters of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly widened Barbados’ current account deficit. From 2015 to 2019, Barbados ran an average current account deficit of 4.1% of GDP but the deficit widened to 6.1% in 2020. 
• The economy is highly reliant on tourism and other service exports to offset wide goods and primary income account deficits, and the services trade surplus shrank to USD0.8Bn in 2020, from an average of USD1.1Bn from 2015 to 2019. 
• However, a broader economic recovery will increase Barbadian import demand, which will widen the goods trade deficit in 2021 and the years thereafter. 
• Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 current account deficit to 4.9% of GDP, from 3.9% previously, as a slower-than-expected rebound in tourism activity in Q1 2021 leads to a wider current account deficit. The deficit is expected to narrow to 3.1% of GDP in 2022.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The sovereign issuer-based default rate rose to a record high in 2020 against a backdrop of weakened sovereign credit profiles due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Fitch Ratings. 
• Fitch’s recent Sovereign 2020 Transition and Default Study shows that five Fitch-rated sovereigns defaulted in 2020, up from only one in the previous year. As a result, the sovereign default rate rose more than threefold to 4.2% from 0.9% in 2019. The previous high was 1.8% in both 2016 and 2017. 
• The scale and breadth of the pandemic’s economic impact and of governments’ policy responses put widespread pressure on sovereign ratings, with Fitch downgrading 32 sovereigns in 2020 compared with just two upgrades (both occurred before the pandemic). 
• The majority of last year’s downgrades occurred early in the pandemic, between late-March and mid-May. The resulting ratio of downgrades to upgrades was 16 to 1, whereas the ratio was 0.8 to 1 in 2019. By comparison, the 2009 ratio following the global financial crisis was 7 to 1. 
• Downgrade pressures have eased this year, but Fitch’s ratings indicate that more defaults are possible. Fitch has downgraded three sovereigns in 2021, with no upgrades, but its Outlook changes this year have had a positive bias. Fitch has revised the Outlooks on the ratings of six sovereigns to Stable from Negative, and three to Positive from Stable in 2021, while just one (Kuwait) has been assigned a Negative Outlook.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)

• U.S. consumers are expecting the economy to boom over the next year, with expectations for inflation, home prices, earnings and the labour market all picking up in May, according to a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 
• Median expectations for what inflation will look like over the next year rose for the seventh consecutive month to 4% in May. That is up from 3.4% in April and reaches a new high for the series, which launched in 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years increased more modestly to 3.6% from 3.1%. 
• Consumers also shared a much brighter outlook for the labour market at a time when more businesses are opening up, travel is increasing and hiring is improving. The average expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now dropped to a series low of 31.9% in May, down from 34.6% in April. 
• The perceived odds of losing a job over the next year also reached a new low, falling to an average of 12.6% in May from 15% in April. The shift was most pronounced among workers below the age of 40, those earning less than $50,000 in household income and people with no more than a high school degree.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the 6-month period ending April 2021, Scotia Group reported a net profit of $4.48Bn (EPS: $1.44), which translates to an 11.5% (or $462.73Mn) increase over the same period in 2020. 
• The outturn was driven by a 5.8% rise in total operating income on the back of a $1.00Bn rise in net gains on foreign currency activities, given higher trading volumes and revaluation gains. Other revenue, which grew by $969.70Mn due to gains realized on extinguishable debt securities, also influenced the improvement in the bottom-line. 
• Despite the positive outturn in the company’s bottom-line, net interest income, net fee & commission income and insurance revenue, contracted year-over-year by 9.4%, 11.5% and 30.3%, respectively. This performance reflects the lingering effects of the current economic conditions of the financial sector evidenced by lower transaction volumes as well as low market interest rates. 
• Since the start of the year, Scotia’s stock price has decline by 8.0% to $40.57 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 13.3x earnings, which is below the main market financial sector average of 17.9x earnings.

(Source: Company Financials)

• At the end of May 2021, Jamaica’s net international reserves (NIR) amounted to US$3.42Bn, which was 3.0% (or US$100.92Mn) higher than in April. A US$97.09Mn increase in foreign assets, and a marginal US$3.83Mn contraction in foreign liabilities contributed to the improvement. 
• The current recovery in the tourism sector with May having the highest number of overseas visitors since the country reopened its borders to tourists in June last year, augurs well for the NIR. Furthermore, remittance inflows have also remained robust supported by rising employment and government stimulus in source markets. 
• At the end of April 2021, the country had 30.57 weeks of goods and service import, which is higher than the 29.88 reported last month.

(Source: BOJ)

• The aviation authorities of the Dominican Republic recently authorized the operation of 110 “special” flights between the local districts of Punta Cana and La Romana, in the east of the country, and the Russian city of Yekaterinburg between June 23 and October 29. 
• The Civil Aviation Board (JAC) assured that the flights would contribute to the country about 70 million dollars to impact tourism and the economy. 
• The agency highlighted that it has also approved another 1,601 charter flights, whose revenues will represent $686Mn. According to the JAC, the airports handled 816,813 passengers last May, surpassing the April figures.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• In order to increase investment and exports with the south-east region of the USA, Costa Rica has opened a trade facilitation office in the city of Houston, Texas, from which it will work on the promotion of Costa Rican products and services that have potential in the zone, as well as opportunities for investments and strategic alliances. 
• The official opening of Costa Rican Exports Promotion Agency PROCOMER's trade promotion office took place on Tuesday, June 8 at the headquarters of the Greater Houston Partnership, the city's largest Chamber of Commerce. 
• Various studies carried out by PROCOMER have identified potential for exports in southern and eastern USA in sectors such as foodservice, information and communications technology (ICT), agricultural products, roasted coffee, health care services, the aerospace industry and artisan beer, among others; products that Costa Rica produces with certified quality. 
• Texas is the ninth-largest economy in the world (by GDP), as corroborated by the intensive migration of people and companies from other US states, because of its pro-business environment and job growth. Additionally, 30% of Costa Rica's international trade with the USA is with the state of Texas. 
• It is for these reasons, and others such as opportunities in information and communications technology, creative industries, biotechnology and life sciences, digital animation, advanced manufacturing and medical technologies, that the agency has decided to increase its presence in this state.

(Source: El Paso Inc)

• The U.S. government posted a May deficit of $132 billion, about a third of the May 2020 deficit of $399 billion, as higher employment and an earlier tax deadline this year boosted receipts sharply, even as COVID-19 pandemic-related outlays grew, the U.S. Treasury said on Thursday. 
• Receipts for May rose 167% to $464 billion, an increase partly attributed to last year's delay of the Internal Revenue Service income tax filing deadline until July 15. This year's deadline shifted by a month to May 17. 
• The Treasury also said taxes withheld from wages increased by 20% to $204 billion during May compared to a year ago, while May corporate taxes rose to $18 billion from $2 billion last year. Outlays for May increased 4% from a year earlier to $596 billion as benefits from President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid package continued to be paid out. 
• This spending also helped push the fiscal year-to-date deficit to a record $2.064 trillion from $1.88 trillion for the first eight months of the prior fiscal year, Treasury officials said. Year-to-date receipts rose 29% from a year earlier to $2.607 trillion, while outlays grew 20% to $4.671 trillion.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labour Department reported Thursday. 
• The consumer price index, which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing costs and sales across a spectrum of goods, rose 5% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a gain of 4.7%. The reading represented the biggest CPI gain since the 5.3% increase in August 2008, just before the financial crisis sent the U.S. spiraling into the worst recession since the Great Depression. 
• Though the inflation readings are well above anything seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been largely dismissive of the numbers. Central bank officials believe the current rise is due to temporary factors that will abate as the year goes on and look higher because of comparisons to the year-ago period, when much of the economic activity remained restricted due to pandemic precautions. 
• Consequently, market participants generally do not expect to see the Fed react to the latest numbers when the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee meets next week.

(Source: Reuters)

• For its audited financial year ending December 2020, General Accident Insurance company reported net profit attributable to shareholders of $242.50Mn (EPS: $0.24), a 56.6% contraction over the same period in 2019. 
• Although net premium earned grew by 22.7% (or $506.79Mn) this was largely eroded by a 50.7% (or $611.60Mn) increase in claims expenses and 23.8% (or $235.78Mn) rise in management expenses, which together contributed to the YoY contraction in the company’s bottom-line. Costs incurred in relation to the commencement of operations in Barbados also added to the overall increase in expenses. 
• Management expects the company’s profitability to improve in 2021 due primarily to premium growth in Barbados and Trinidad. In addition, as the reorganization of its foreign subsidiaries is now fully complete, it anticipates that overhead costs will stabilize. Furthermore, as the group continues to grow in size, it expects to achieve scale and resilience. 
• Since the start of the year, General Accident’s stock price has declined by 7.1% to $5.75 on June 09, 2021. At this price, the company trades at a P/E of 30.3x earnings, which is above the junior market financial sector average of 31.8x earnings.

(Source: Company Financials)