• Oil prices fell on Monday after Saudi Arabia's sharp cuts to crude contract prices for Asia revived concerns over the demand outlook. 
• Brent crude futures fell 39 cents to settle at $72.22 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was last down 40 cents at $68.89 a barrel. 
• State oil group Saudi Aramco notified customers in a statement on Sunday that it will cut October official selling prices (OSPs) for all crude grades sold to Asia, its biggest buying region, by at least $1 a barrel. 
• The price cuts were larger than expected, based on a Reuters poll of Asian refiners. Global oil supplies are increasing as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, are raising output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month between August and December. This is expected to put downward pressure on oil prices for the rest of 2021.

(Source: Reuters)

• Sygnus Credit Investment Ltd reported a 154.8% year over year increase in net profit to US$5.03Mn for its financial year ending June 30, 2021, on the back of an increase in net interest income and fair value gains from financial instruments.
• The results were driven by new investment origination activity across the Caribbean at attractive yields, continued proactive credit risk management and growth in its private credit investment portfolio to US$82.80 million. Sygnus’ capital raise of US$27.1 million via additional public offering (APO) of 249,887,900 ordinary shares earlier this year provided it with additional capital to expand its credit portfolio.
• Expenses rose by 9.6% largely owing to higher management and corporate services fees related to higher assets under management, first time performance fees and some one-off expenses. Core activities resulted in an efficiency ratio of 42.0% for FYE Jun 2021, vs 32.7% for FYE Jun 2020. First-time payment of a performance fee, accounted for 5.4 percentage points of the 42.0%.
• While the pandemic continues to evolve, management indicated that it remains committed to proactively managing the risk of its private credit portfolio. It also expects to maintain a strong balance sheet with a high asset coverage ratio and low leverage; as well as deepen current partnerships and build new relationships across the Caribbean to widen its regional footprint and grow the business well beyond the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• SCI’s JMD stock price has risen by 1.3% since the start of the year and closed Tuesday’s trading session at a price of $16.45 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 10.5x earnings, which is below the Main Market financial sector average of 14.9x. On the other hand, USD share price is unchanged year to date with the P/E at 10.7x, which is above the USD sector average of 7.7x.

(Source: SCI Financials)

• In its July Economic Bulletin, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) said: 'The short-term economic outlook for Trinidad and Tobago will be directly impacted by the virus' path and the domestic response’.
• 'If sustained, the gradual relaxation of restrictions on movement and business activity from August could see, by the end of 2021, a meaningful recovery of non-energy output lost during the first 2½ quarters of the year'.
• The price of the two commodities that drive T&T’s energy sector recovered for the first seven months of 2021, bolstered by favourable demand conditions on account of the re-opening of several economies alongside crude oil production cuts. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price increased by 69.5%year-on-year over the first seven months of 2021 to an average of US$63.46 per barrel, while natural gas prices rose by 81.5% to an average of US$3.26 per million British Thermal Units (mmbtu).
• 'While some improvement is anticipated in export earnings as the country benefits from the ascent in international energy prices, continued efforts to shore up domestic energy output will be critical'.

(Source: Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago)

• With the excitement brought on by the string of petroleum discoveries offshore Guyana, the country is already a coveted investment destination. President, Dr. Irfaan Ali plans to make the environment even more attractive to foreign direct investors.
• The government intends to add some 500 megawatts of new power, using the gas-to-energy and Amaila Falls hydropower projects, and several small-scale renewable energy projects, before the end of its term. The projects are intended to cut the cost of power by half and improve the reliability of the electricity supply to businesses and households.
• The government is continuously working to improve the ease of doing business, showing investors that local markets are ready for their entry. This would create thousands of jobs, in line with the government’s manifesto promise of opening avenues for persons to provide for their families.

(Source: The Tribune)

• Fitch Solutions expects the Canadian economy will continue to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and grow 5.9% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022. In Q221, real GDP expanded 12.7% y-o-y on a seasonally adjusted basis but contracted 0.3% q-o-q, due to weak exports and a slowdown in residential investment.
• Additionally, a strengthened labour market and looser public health restrictions will underpin 5.3% private consumption growth in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. In H121, private consumption increased 6.2% y-o-y, and elevated economic sentiment suggests that household spending will remain strong in the coming months. As businesses rehire more workers to fulfill higher demand, Fitch expects that unemployment will fall to 6.8% by end-2021, from 7.5% in July, raising household incomes.
• Furthermore, in the FY2021/22 budget, the government extended the Canada Workers Benefit and several other stimulus measures to support low-income and unemployed workers, offering additional tailwinds to private consumption. These measures, combined with Canada’s robust COVID-19 vaccine roll out, will sustain a rebound in commercial activity in the short-to-medium term.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Wall Street's main indexes marched on, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs on Wednesday, as fresh technology stock buying combined with hopes the Federal Reserve would keep the stimulus taps open after weaker-than-expected private payrolls data.
• Technology stocks, which tend to benefit from a low-rate environment, were up 0.5%. Apple Inc rose 1.2% to its second record high this week, and Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Google-owner Alphabet Inc all advanced between 0.4% and 1.4%.
• Wall Street's main indexes have hit record highs recently, with the benchmark S&P 500 notching a solid 20.8% gain so far this year as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new coronavirus infections and hoped for the Fed to remain dovish in its policy stance.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaican economy grew by 12.9% for the April to June 2021 quarter, influenced by increased production in the goods producing and services industry of 7.8% and 14.0% respectively, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica.
• The growth in the goods producing industry was mainly driven by an increase in the real value added by the agriculture, forestry & fishing (10.3%), manufacturing (3.1%) and the construction (18.3%) sectors.
• Improved weather conditions and increased demand accompanied by the relaxation of measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly from related industries such as Hotels Restaurants, were the main factors driving the performance of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. The expansion in the construction sector was influenced by increased capital expenditure on civil engineering activities and a rise in residential and non-residential building.
• All sectors in the services industry grew, with the highest growth seen in the hotels and restaurants sector at 330.7%. The sector rallied from depressed levels in Q2 2020 on the back of an increase in tourism activity due to relaxed travelling restrictions and vaccine-led recovery in key markets.
• The prospects for overall economic recovery in the short term are positive, with the PIOJ projecting growth between 4%-6% in Q3 2021. This should be led by the gradual recovery of the global economy, which augurs well for external demand; as well as continued recovery in the levels of domestic employment; and a strengthening in business confidence, which are both expected to support domestic demand.
• However, the spread of the Delta variant, re-imposition of stricter containment measures, adverse weather conditions during the hurricane season, plant down-time due to relatively aged plant equipment in major industries, as well as the recent fire at the Jamalco Alumina refinery, are significant downside risks to this forecast. Importantly, the imposition of no movement days to stem the spread of the virus is likely to severely impact key sectors, such as retail and distribution, weighing on business confidence and corporate profits.

(Source: PIOJ and NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions believes there is an increasing probability that the ruling, centre-right Free National Movement (FNM) could fail to win re-election during the snap September 16 parliamentary election in the Bahamas, amid a slow vaccination campaign and rising cases in the country. The Bahamas are in the midst of a second wave of COVID-19 cases, with the 7-day moving average of new cases reaching an all-time high on August 1, and cases remained high throughout the month
• Weak economic activity and Bahamian voters’ tendency to vote for the out of power further undermine the FNM’s prospects. As a result, Fitch has revised down the Bahamas’ score in its Short-Term Political Risk Index (SPTRI) to 67.1 out of 100, from 72.1 due to increased risks to policy continuity.
• That being said, it has not made a final forecast for the election due to a lack of public polling and the large swings that typify Bahamian elections.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Peru’s banking sector will post moderate growth in the short-to-medium term as negative base effects and policy uncertainty offset macroeconomic tailwinds.
• However, Fitch Solutions expects that sustained real GDP growth and the banking sector's relatively small size will help Peruvian banks, such as Scotiabank Peru expand at a faster pace than regional peers in the longer term.
• Fitch forecasts asset, loan and deposit growth of 5.4%, 6.1% and 6.9% in 2021 and 7.9%, 8.0% and 8.7% in 2022, down from 24.4%, 11.3% and 25.4% growth in 2020.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• U.S. consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August as worries about soaring COVID-19 infections and higher inflation dimmed the outlook for the economy.
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 113.8 this month, the lowest since February, from 125.1 in July.
• The survey showed that consumers are less inclined to buy a home and big-ticket items like motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months, supporting the view that consumer spending will cool in the third quarter after two straight quarters of robust growth.
• “While the resurgence of COVID-19 and inflation concerns have dampened confidence, it is too soon to conclude this decline will result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board in Washington.

(Source: Marketwatch)