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Is There A Labour Shortage? What The May Jobs Report Tells Us Published: 08 June 2021

  • The weaker-than-expected April jobs report fueled speculation of U.S. labour shortages and led some state officials to declare an early end to enhanced unemployment benefits.
  • Yet forecasters hoping for clarity from the May tally may be left scratching their heads. 
  • It’s hard to draw conclusions about sustained weakness or labour supply issues from the data published Friday, according to economists. The May report offers something of a mixed bag and somewhat contradictory data points, they said. 
  • For example, there’s the headline number: The U.S. economy added 559,000 people to payrolls in May. On one hand, some observers may use the data point to suggest workers aren’t rejoining the labour force as quickly as one might expect. 
  • The jobs figure was below economists’ estimate of 671,000. At that pace, it would take more than a year to regain all the jobs lost since February 2020.

(Source: CNBC News)

Tropical Battery Company Limited Announces Joint Venture with CAC – Launch of ENRVATE Limited Published: 04 June 2021

  • CAC 2000 Limited (CAC) and Tropical Battery Company Limited (TROPICAL), both listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, announced the joint formation of ENRVATE Limited on April 29, 2021. 
  • ENRVATE will adopt a unique approach to establishing energy saving solutions for commercial customers in Jamaica and the Caribbean by focusing on real-time measurement and monitoring of energy consumption and using the resulting data to identify, design, and execute energy and water saving opportunities. 
  • The goal is to work with customers to achieve minimum savings of 25%, with the ultimate achievement being NET ZERO consumption. Enrvate plans to develop innovative financing solutions for qualified customers through the issuance of a Green Bond along with equity capital. ENRVATE  officially started offering its product and services as at June 1, 2021. 
  • Both companies stated that they are passionate about the planet, people, and profits, and anticipate that this 50-50 partnership will help them achieve their goals faster. Furthermore, the joint venture is in line with CAC’s strategy to develop complementary partnerships to become a leading expert in energy and Indoor Environmental Quality. 
  • We believe the partnership provides value to both entities, as it will support revenue diversification. Most businesses and consumers in the region are looking for ways to reduce energy costs to improve earnings and stretch disposable incomes.

(Source: Jamaica Stock Exchange)

Ground To Be Broken For 3,000 Hotel Rooms over Coming Months Published: 04 June 2021

  • Minister of Tourism, Hon Edmund Bartlett, says ground is to be broken for 3,000 hotel rooms over the next few months. Speaking at a virtual ground-breaking ceremony for the new Sandals Dunn’s River Resort in St. Ann, on May 26, the Minister also noted that he recently concluded, in Spain, arrangements for another 1,000 rooms. 
  • “I am excited about the prospect of where we are going with the industry in this round. Already for the year, we have welcomed just a little over 400,000 visitors and we have earned some US$500Mn of foreign exchange for Jamaica,” Mr. Bartlett explained. This is below the 574,131 tourist arrivals recorded for the same period in 2020, which is solely made up of arrivals reported in January to March as the border was closed to foreigners in April and May to limit the spread of the pandemic. Notably, the total visitors thus far in 2021 is greater than the 306,273 visitors to the island from June to December 2020. 
  • In the meantime, Mr. Bartlett indicated that Jamaica’s tourism sector is undergoing a renewal process, and that this new tourism is going to drive a greater level of “inclusiveness” that will further benefit the local economy. He said there will be more indigenous Jamaican programmes, experiences and entrepreneurships to strengthen and build the new tourism product.

(Source: Jamaica Information Service)

Panama Outlook On External Position Published: 04 June 2021

  • Panama's current account is expected to return to a deficit in 2021 and the years thereafter, although the shock of COVID-19 severely depressed Panamanian trade and narrowed the goods trade deficit. 
  • High domestic consumption and a large construction industry make Panama a major importer of consumer goods, capital goods and fuels, which has historically resulted in persistent current account deficits. However, a collapse in imports in 2020 pushed the current account balance to an estimated surplus of 0.1% of GDP. 
  • As the economy recovers in 2021 and the years thereafter, the agency expects the current account deficit will stabilize around 3.5% of GDP in the second half of the forecast period. Capital inflows will be enough to sustain the shortfall, as the country's ease of doing business and dollarization continue to make it attractive to international investors.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

PM Repeats: No IMF Program For Belize Published: 04 June 2021

  • During Friday’s sitting of the House of Representatives, the Prime Minister, Hon. John Briceño, stated that the negotiations with the Creditor Committee representing the holders of Belize’s Superbond are still ongoing. The Superbond amounts to over U.S.$556.4Mn dollars, and makes up 40% of the sovereign’s total external debt. 
  • On May 20, the country defaulted on a scheduled coupon payment given the critical state of the public finances, the severe impacts of the pandemic and the consequent rigid budget recently approved by this Parliament. Prior to that, a scheduled call between bondholders and the Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance was cancelled. At that time, the bondholders had stated that no progress could be made in the renegotiation of the debt unless Belize signs on to an IMF standby agreement. 
  • During Friday’s House meeting, PM Briceño stated, “Our position remains steadfast; there will be no IMF standby program, because there is no need for an IMF program. The government knows what must be done to restore economic and fiscal health, and our 2021/22 national budget is proof-positive that we are acting with purpose and a clarity to restore equilibrium to the public finances.”

(Source: Amandala)

China Upbeat On Trade Talks With U.S., Says Both 'Seek Common Ground' Published: 04 June 2021

  • China hailed on Thursday the resumption of "normal discussions" with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically. 
  • China's Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States, has held two video calls with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a week, marking the first formal engagement between the two sides on trade and economic issues under the Biden administration. 
  • Both calls lasted about 50 minutes, commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng told a regular news conference, adding that conversations started smoothly and Sino-U.S. trade, macro-economic situations and domestic policies were among the topics. 
  • The discussions aimed at solving various issues come after a period of strained relations between the world's two biggest economies, including a nearly two-year tit-for-tat trade war.

(Source: Reuters)

IMF Sees Italy GDP Up 4.3% In 2021, Budget Deficit At 11.8% GDP Published: 04 June 2021

  • The International Monetary Fund delivered slightly improved growth forecasts on Thursday for Italy's economy in 2021 and 2022 as it gradually recovers from the coronavirus crisis with support from increased fiscal spending. 
  • The IMF now sees Italy's gross domestic product up 4.3% and 4% in 2021 and 2022 respectively, revised up from an April estimate of 4.2% and 3.6%, and closer to the government's projections of growth of 4.5% this year and 4.8% next year. 
  • "A robust recovery is expected in 2021 supported by ongoing vaccinations although large uncertainty remains," the Fund said in statement released at the end of its annual visit to Italy. "Continued policy support will be necessary until the recovery takes hold", IMF added. 
  • Italy's economy grew by 0.1% in the first quarter this year from the previous three months due to higher investments and inventories, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Tuesday, sharply raising a preliminary estimate for a 0.4% contraction. 
  • The Fund said Italy's budget deficit for 2021 was now seen at 11.8% of GDP, up from 8.8% projected in April, and in line with a government's estimate for a double-digit deficit, which was last experienced in the early 1990s. As the coronavirus crisis pushes up government spending, the Fund also revised up the fiscal gap for 2022 to 6% from 5.5% of GDP, near Rome's projection of 5.9%.

(Source: Reuters)

KPREIT Secures $700Mn in Financing From VMIL Published: 03 June 2021

  • Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) has advised on new funding through Victoria Mutual Investments Limited (VMIL). It signed a $700Mn 13-month bridge loan which will be used to continue the expansion of its property portfolio. 
  • This facility continues the series of fundraising exercises undertaken by the company to meet its strategic objective of increasing its equity to $10Bn and the footprint of properties under its ownership or management to one million square feet by 2023. 
  • Kevin Richards, CEO, KPREIT said: “This round of financing will allow us to continue to expand our portfolio, mainly in the geographic regions that we have been operating in the last four years.” He added that the facility follows the Company’s 2019 rights issue, also brokered by VM Wealth Management, which raised $2Bn. 
  • Richards further noted that the company is also looking to increase its investment in industrial properties over the next few years, in line with the growing logistics and E-commerce industry globally and will be exploring more value-added and greenfield projects in this space. KPREIT will also be broadening its reach in the US, particularly in States outside of the hurricane corridor and is currently at varying stages of execution of the deals in its pipeline. 
  • KPREIT currently owns industrial, residential, office and retail properties in Jamaica, the US and the Cayman Islands. For the first quarter of 2021, it reported a 58% year on year increase in rental revenue to US$709,695 with net operating income (NOI) increasing by 123% to US$437,660, while net profit after tax (NPAT) increased to US$623,338 for the first quarter of 2021 compared to a loss of US$214,877 the prior year. 
  • The company’s stock price has appreciated by 16.1% to $8.42 since the start of 2021, and currently trades at a P/B of 1.31x, which is above the main market real estate sector average of 0.97x.

(Source: JSE; NCBCM Research)

House Passes Anti-Gang Bill Published: 03 June 2021

  • The Criminal Justice (Suppression of Criminal Organizations) (Amendment) Act, 2021, commonly called the Anti-Gang legislation, was passed in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (June 1), with four amendments. 
  • The amendments to the Act specify additional offences for activities in which criminal organizations are engaged, increase the number of offences under the Act, expand the list of aggravating factors to be considered when sentencing an individual convicted of certain offences under the Act, and improve the trial procedures in order to protect the identity of witnesses for connected matters. 
  • Minister of National Security, Hon. Dr. Horace Chang, said that a strong legislative framework is critical in ensuring sustainable crime reduction. This is an important step in reducing its contribution to political risk, and improving the business environment, as the current crime rate acts as an impediment to domestic and foreign direct investments. Despite significant improvements in recent years, Jamaica's homicide rate was estimated to be 46.5 per 100,000 people in 2020, the highest in Latin American and the Caribbean (Fitch Solutions).

(Source: JIS; NCBCM Research)

Bermuda To Maintain Large Current Account Surplus In Years Ahead On Primary Income, Rebounding Tourism Published: 03 June 2021

  • Bermuda will continue to run a substantial current account surplus in the years ahead on the strength of its primary income surplus. It is forecasted that Bermuda will run a current account surplus of 14.9% of GDP in 2021, largely unchanged from the 15.2% in 2020 and in line with the 14.0% average from 2015 to 2019. 
  • Bermuda’s large primary income surplus is the main driver of its persistent current account surplus, which was the fourth-largest in the world in 2020. 
  • A larger goods trade deficit will account for the modest decline in the current account surplus in the quarters ahead, as rebounding economic activity spurs goods import demand. 
  • However, recovering tourism activity, particularly in H2 2021, will boost service exports, partially offsetting the wider goods trade deficit.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)