• Colombia’s peso started the New Year by hitting a post-pandemic low. It may be a sign of things to come ahead of the May 29 presidential election.  
• While the currency is undervalued based on fundamental factors, congressional and presidential elections will likely stoke tensions and “temper a return to fair value,” wrote Kathryn Rooney Vera, head of research and strategy at Miami-based Bulltick LLC. The peso tumbled almost 16% in 2021, despite a 50%-plus rally in the price of oil. 
• That weakness has become a familiar story across the Andean region in the past year, with currencies sinking as left-wing candidates surge in the polls and finally win the election, spooking investors accustomed to decades of market-friendly policies. Even soaring commodity prices and rising interest rates did little to salvage the Chilean peso and the Peruvian sol last year. 
• The peso lost as much as 0.9% to 4,105.50 to the dollar on Monday, the weakest since March 2020, before ending the day flat. It weakened again on Tuesday.

(Source: Bloomberg

• The historically high pressures on global supply chain networks that have contributed to shortages of key goods and materials and a surge in inflation may have peaked, according to a new index released by the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday. 
• The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) which tracks supply chains surged early in the pandemic when China imposed lockdown measures. More recently, the (index) seems to suggest that global supply chain pressures, while still historically high, have peaked and might start to moderate somewhat going forward. 
• The index is based on 27 variables such as shipping rates and air freight costs between the United States, Asia and Europe. Researchers found "enormous growth" in shipping costs since the beginning of the recovery from the lows at the start of the pandemic. But that growth has started to slow in recent months. 
• The index, draws on data going back to 1997, and shows that global supply chain pressures are substantially higher now than in previous times of stress. For example, pressures rose in 2011 after two natural disasters, including an earthquake in Japan and flooding in Thailand. The index rose again during the U.S.-China trade war in 2017 and 2018. But those spikes pale in comparison to what has been observed since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

(Sources: Investing.com)

• Treasury traders are betting the rapid spread of the omicron variant will increase inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, rather than weaken them. 
• U.S. 10-year break-even rates which are market estimates for the average rate of inflation over the next decade climbed to as high as 2.66% on Tuesday, the most since November, and up from as low as 2.36% on December 14. The extra yield on Treasury 10-year notes over two-year securities has also jumped this week, indicating the bias may be switching back to a steeper yield curve. 
• The move came after Treasuries posted their worst start to the year since 2009 sending ripples through markets from Australia to the U.K. amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to raise its policy rate as soon as May, earlier than the July liftoff projected a month ago.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has announced that it has successfully completed the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot. In March 2021, BOJ announced that it was testing a prototype central bank digital currency with vendor, eCurrency Mint Inc. in BOJ's Fintech Regulatory Sandbox. This was followed in May 2021 by the commencement of an 8-month long pilot which ended on December 31, 2021. 
• Success of the pilot project was dependent on whether a central bank digital currency along with the attendant technology solution could be successfully implemented in Jamaica. Several activities were targeted and completed during the pilot. This included minting CBDC, issuing CBDC to wallet providers and distributing CBDC to retail Customers. 
• The National Roll-Out of the CBDC is scheduled for the first quarter of 2022 whereby NCB will continue onboarding existing customers and new customers. Two additional wallet providers, who are now conducting virtual simulation testing, will be able to order CBDC from BOJ and distribute it to their customers. The testing of transactions between customers of various participating wallet providers will also be undertaken as part of the national Roll-Out. 
• CBDC is a form of central bank-backed currency and is, therefore, legal tender. It can be exchanged, dollar for dollar, with actual cash and is issued to licensed deposit-taking institutions (DTIs). Individuals, households, and businesses can use it to pay for goods and services, as obtained with cash. According to the Bank, the benefits to be derived by citizens, businesses and the Government from the adoption and introduction of a viable digital currency solution include increased financial inclusion and another means of efficient and secured payments. Additionally, the BOJ says CBDC represents an opportunity for DTIs to improve cash management processes and costs.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica)

• Prime Minister the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has said that the Government was able to reallocate resources within the Budget to deliver over $100.0Bn for social protection and recovery support without any increase in borrowing. 
• The Prime Minister noted that while for some this may not seem like a big deal, in the past, shocks such as a storm or commodity price shocks as experienced in the 1970s and 80s, or a global financial recession as experienced in 2009, would have precipitated major economic crises with long recovery periods. 
• The International Monetary Fund observed in its recent Concluding Statement on Jamaica, that unlike in the past, the pandemic related shock was not followed by a fiscal, financial, or balance of payments crisis. The Prime Minister noted that this is a solid testament of the maturing of Jamaica's economic management and how far the country has progressed in its quest for economic independence. 
• He further noted that this solid fiscal platform underpins the strong recovery that is already being seen in the Jamaican economy. Tourism has rebounded to almost 70.0% of pre-pandemic levels, employment is rebounding with the return of some 93,000 jobs, and expectations are that the country will record growth of around 8.0%.

(Sources: JIS News)

• Several heads of various sectors of the economy believe Trinidad and Tobago is in for significant declines in 2022, as the pandemic persists and uncertainty looms. 
• Their comments came after the Central Bank on Friday issued its final Monetary Policy Announcement (MPA) for 2021 which said there would be further increases in food and core inflation. 
• "Food inflation surged to 7.6% from 5.8% in September and is likely to rise further given the situation in the global grain markets," it said. 
• The Central Bank pointed out that headline inflation in October moved to 3.9% year-on-year when compared to 2.4% in September. Core inflation, which excluded food, doubled to 2.9% and the index of building material prices rose by 12.6% during the third quarter of 2021. 
• Economist Dr. Vaalmikki Arjoon told Sunday Newsday that the increase in wheat prices has started a chain reaction that would further exacerbate an already high cost of living.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Newsday)

• GUYANA recorded 106,428 visitors as of September 2021, a 23% overall increase when compared to 2020, the Guyana Tourism Authority (GTA) has reported. The GTA noted that the reopening of the international borders has resulted in a stark improvement in the visitor arrivals statistics when compared to 2020. 
• In 2021, most visitors travelled to Guyana for holiday (64%); business (12%) and visiting friends and relatives (10%), among other reasons (14%). 
• So far, Guyana has earned approximately $24Bn (up to September 2021) based on the average expenditure per visitor per type at US$1,060. Regardless of this growth, the GTA said it is important that Guyana maintains the standards that have been developed and adhered to, to win this fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• It also noted that a consistent level of support is needed by tourism businesses to ensure that the sector continues to recover safely. As such, through the support from the GTA, there has been a marked increase in tourism businesses being licensed.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Apple Inc on Monday became the first company in the world to hit $3 trillion in market capitalization, thanks to investor confidence that the iPhone maker will keep launching best-selling products as it explores new markets such as automated cars and metaverse. 
• On the first day of trading in 2022, the company's shares rose to $182.88 in mid-day trading, a new record. 
• The world's most valuable company is the first to reach the milestone as investors bet that consumers will continue to shell out top dollar for iPhones, MacBooks and services such as Apple TV and Apple Music. 
• Apple's march from $2 trillion to $3 trillion in market value took about 16 months as its stock roared higher, leading a group of megacap technology companies that benefited as people relied heavily on tech during the coronavirus pandemic.

(Sources: Investing.com)

• The British Government has asked public sector managers to test their contingency plans against a worst-case scenario of 25% staff absence as part of efforts to minimize disruption from the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. 
• With daily infection numbers at a record high and people who test positive required to self-isolate for at least seven days, the Government expects businesses and public services to face disruption in the coming weeks, it said in a statement. 
• "So far, disruption caused by Omicron has been controlled in most parts of the public sector, but public sector leaders have been asked to test plans against worst-case scenarios of workforce absence of 10%, 20% and 25%," it said. 
• This latest development by the U.K is an indication that governments may have to tighten up their stringency measures in order to curb the spread of the new Omicron variant. In the local context of Jamaica, the Government will likely revisit its guidelines as it relates to mandatory work from home restriction if cases continue to surge.

(Source: Reuters and NCBCM Research)

• For November 2021, output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry increased by 1.4%, with an upward movement in output prices in the Manufacturing industry of 0.8%, as released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). 
• The increase in the index for the Mining and Quarrying industry was influenced mainly by a 1.5% rise in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. The index for the other major group ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’ rose by 0.3%. These increases were due to the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar against the United States dollar. 
• For the period under review, the Manufacturing industry continued to be impacted by increases in the cost of raw materials on the international market, as well as, rising freight costs. The main contributors to the 0.8% rise in the index for the Manufacturing industry were the major groups: ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ which increased by 1.6%; ‘Food, Beverages and Tobacco’ up by 0.5% and ‘Chemicals and Chemical Products’ which increased by 1.5%. 
• For the period November 2020 – November 2021, the point-to-point movement for the Mining & Quarrying industry was 27.4%, due mainly to an increase of 28.4% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. The point-to-point movement for the Manufacturing industry was 20.2%. 
• Point-to-point PPI has grown in November relative to the results for October, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) had fallen for the same period. This could be influenced by the challenges manufacturers face passing on higher input prices to consumers. Further, with supply chain challenges expected to continue into 2022, the output prices for the manufacturing sector are expected to remain elevated.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)