• The Legislative Assembly voted to suspend yesterday’s ordinary and extraordinary sessions due to COVID-19 exposure concerns. A close advisor to Eduardo Cruickshank, the Legislative Assembly President, tested positive.
• The Assembly was nearing the end of the discussions of motions for the public employment bill, having approved extraordinary sessions this week. The public employment bill is a structural benchmark of the IMF three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF), with an end of May 2021 deadline.
• This the latest unfortunate news representing yet another setback for the government and the proposed approval timeline for the EFF, which could impact future payout under the program.

(Source: Oppenheimer)

• The outlook for Argentinean consumer spending over 2021 is one of a gradual recovery, with household spending to post real growth of 10.2% y-o-y. This marks the beginning of a recovery from the -13.7% y-o-y contraction in household spending estimated over 2020, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• High consumer price inflation will remain one of the main constraints for consumer spending in the country. Whilst inflation was at its highest in 2019, averaging 53.6% for that year, it is forecasted to remain elevated in 2021, with an average of 42.1% projected, slightly down from the 42.7% estimated in 2020. 
• Notably, Argentina had some of the most stringent restrictions in Latin America throughout 2020. This has continued into 2021, with authorities remaining cautious as a new variant (the Brazil variant) emerges in the region.
• Fitch Solutions notes that the vaccination program has also been gradually gaining momentum since the start of the year, with Argentina receiving shipments of vaccine doses which will help support the consumer recovery outlook that will help to drive the economic rebound. 

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The European Central Bank left policy unchanged as expected on Thursday, keeping copious stimulus flowing even as it saw reasons to expect a firm rebound of the euro area economy this year.
• The ECB is keeping borrowing costs pinned near record lows via massive bond purchases to see the 19-country currency bloc through a scarring recession that has kept schools, shops, restaurants, and hotels closed for most of the last year.
• But growth is expected to rebound quickly from mid-year as COVID-19 infections are brought under control, the pace of vaccination picks up and restrictions are removed, raising questions about just how much ECB help is still needed.
• "There are clearly signs of improvement," President Christine Lagarde told a news conference. "Progress with vaccination campaigns and an envisaged gradual relaxation of containment measures underpin expectations of a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021."
• She stressed the overall situation was still "clouded with uncertainty", however, due to factors including the possible spread of new virus variants to risks to financing conditions and continued pressures on struggling sectors of the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada's annual inflation rate doubled to 2.2% in March, Statistics Canada said on Wednesday, as the central bank signaled economic slack would likely be absorbed earlier than it had previously forecast.
• Previously, the Bank of Canada had said it would be 2023 before inflation returned sustainably to its 2% target. On Tuesday, the central bank said it would happen in the second half of next year. In the meantime, inflation would temporarily breach its target, the bank said.
• Part of the March price bounce is due to a statistical effect caused by a sharp deceleration last year during the coronavirus pandemic, Statscan said. The bank also held its key overnight interest rate at a record low of 0.25% as expected.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the annual rate to rise to 2.3% in March, up from 1.1% in February. Energy prices gained 19.1% on a year-on-year basis, while inflation excluding gasoline and food rose 0.9% versus a year ago.
• "The headline spike, as expected, is largely an energy story, but there are some signs that underlying pressures are starting to show up," said Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.
• The bank now expects Canada's economy will grow 6.5% in 2021, up from its January forecast of 4.0%, with real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2022, down from a previous forecast of 4.8%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Government is looking to develop a contingency plan designed to pilot the tourism industry’s recovery from the economic fallout sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett said that this is in recognition that some of the partners and stakeholders in the sector are experiencing some “cash crunch difficulties” as a result of COVID-19.
• He said the plan is intended to facilitate the provision of or access to funding “should there be any systemic COVID-19-related issues with their financial arrangements”.
• This is being mapped out in tandem with players in the private sector and capital markets. The minister also noted that several financial institutions transacting business with stakeholders experiencing challenges have been “very responsive” to their plight.
• As institutions in the capital markets, such as NCB Capital Markets, develop creative financing solutions for those cash-strapped companies in the tourism industry, investors will also get access to a more diverse pool of assets that will yield higher returns relative to traditional investments.

(Source: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The accelerated roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in key tourism source markets will bolster the rebound of Barbadian exports in the quarters ahead. Overall, Fitch Solutions forecast exports to grow by 11.8% y-o-y in 2021.
• As of April 20, the UK and US, which accounted for 32.9% and 30.7% of long-stay arrivals in 2019, had vaccinated the second and fourth-largest share of their population in the world.
• That said, as the vaccination programs in both countries continue to accelerate, the agency expects demand for tourism in Barbados to increase significantly.
• The return of tourism activity will boost private consumption in the quarters ahead. Firms in the tourism industry, which accounted for 33.4% of total employment in 2019, will begin rehiring workers to meet renewed demand, which will boost household incomes and thereby private consumption. The average unemployment rate is expected to fall to 15.0% in 2021, down from an estimated average of 27.0% in 2020.
• As a result, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 and 2022 real GDP growth forecasts to 3.1% y-o-y and 3.5%, respectively, from 2.4% and 3.2%, previously.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• A recovery in revenues and restrained spending will see Nicaragua’s public deficit narrow to 2.0% of GDP in 2021, from 2.5% in 2020.
• Spending will continue to be focused on social programs and healthcare expenses, in addition to hurricane reconstruction efforts.
• The Nicaraguan government will prioritize gradual fiscal consolidation moving forward, as US sanctions limit its options for financing its deficits.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Oil prices fell as much as 2% on Wednesday on talk of a nuclear deal by May for Iran that would take U.S. sanctions off the Islamic Republic’s crude exports, potentially adding another two million barrels per day or more to the market.
• Crude futures were already down earlier in the day after a somewhat bearish weekly dataset on petroleum supply-demand released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Further depressing the market was news from wire agencies that indirect talks between Iranian and U.S. negotiators, held in Vienna through European intermediaries, were bearing fruit.
• The report added that the United States was open to lifting terror sanctions against Iran’s central bank, its national oil and tanker companies and several key economic sectors including steel, aluminum, and others.

(Source: Investing.com)

• Britain is showing signs of economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as it gradually relaxes its latest lockdown measures, according to a range of timely and forward-looking indicators.
• The world's fifth-biggest economy shrank by almost 10% in 2020, a more severe slump than almost all its European peers after it locked down later and for longer than many of them.
• But helped by the fast rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations, it is in the process of lifting its third lockdown while other countries in Europe have recently tightened restrictions.
• Non-essential retailers in England reopened on April 12 along with pubs and restaurants operating outdoors, and from May 17 restrictions will be lifted further to include indoor hospitality, performances, and sporting events.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the financial year ending December 2020, Jetcon incurred a net loss of $6.73Mn when compared to the net profit of $60.30Mn in FY2019. The weaker performance reflects a falloff in revenues (-38.7% or $$396.65Mn) as the COVID-19 induced recession, weighed on the demand for motor vehicles.
• To mitigate losses and boost sales, the company had to furlough staff temporarily during the second quarter, cut prices on some vehicles, and introduce new sales initiatives.
• With the focus on cost reduction, indirect expenses dropped by 6.1% (or $4.25Mn), while direct expenses fell by 38.4% or ($341.77Mn) over the period.
• Management is optimistic about 2021, given the rollout of vaccinations locally, which will be a major determinant of the pace of economic recovery. Management also gave early guidance that vehicle orders and sales for the first quarter of 2021 have grown year over year (YoY). The prospective economic rebound will be accompanied by a reduction in unemployment, which when combined with the low-interest-rate environment, will support the demand for motor vehicles and help drive sales. However, return to pre-pandemic sales volumes is unlikely to materialize in 2021.
• Since the start of the year, Jetcon’s stock price has appreciated by 1.2% to close trading at a price of $0.80 per share and currently trades at a price to book of 0.4x which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 5.2x.

(Source: Jetcon’s Financials)