• The monthly economic activity prints in Brazil, Colombia and Peru will be closely monitored over the next week to gauge the pace of the cooling in economic activity in the months ahead, says Fitch. 
• Throughout 2021, Peru and Colombia have posted strong recoveries from the COVID-19 shock, due to elevated consumption spending, which has driven retail sales and looser public health restrictions which has supported growth of manufacturing and industrial production. These factors contributed to monthly economic activity growth rates of 4.6% and 9.3% in October, for Peru and Colombia, respectively. 
• However, Peru’s September monthly economic activity grew 9.7%, signaling that the economy has entered a period of cooling for the month of October following strong growth. Brazil has also seen its economic activity decelerate, as elevated inflation and reduced stimulus measures have diminished purchasing power. 
• In the final economic activity prints of 2021, and into 2022, Fitch expects economic growth to cool across the region. This will be driven by base effects becoming less favourable, supply chain bottlenecks slowing production levels, high inflation and rising interest rates both at home and abroad. Overall, growth is expected to return closer to pre-pandemic trend levels in Latin America and much of the world in 2022.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• China’s economy rebounded in 2021 with its best growth in a decade, helped by robust exports, but there are signs that momentum is slowing on weakening consumption and a property downturn, pointing to the need for more policy support. 
• Notably, in a stark policy divergence with other major economies, China’s central bank cut its key interest rate for the first time since April 2020 to help bolster an economy that has lost momentum because of a property slump and repeated virus outbreaks. 
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the interest rate on 700 Bn yuan ($110.19 Bn) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.85% from 2.95%. 
• The rate cut is part of Beijing’s efforts to put a floor under growth in a crucial year of leadership transition for the world’s second-largest economy. The biggest challenges to meeting that goal are sporadic outbreaks of the more-infectious Omicron coronavirus variant, and continued falls in property sales reducing housing investment. 
• While inflation is the dominant concern for central bankers in the U.S. and Europe, China’s relatively stable prices mean policy makers have shifted to boosting growth. Official data Monday showed gross domestic product rose 4% last quarter from a year earlier, the weakest since early 2020.

(Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters)

• The global job market will take longer to recover than previously thought, with unemployment set to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023 due to uncertainty about the pandemic's course and duration, the International Labour Organization said in a report on Monday. 
• The U.N. agency estimates the equivalent of around 52 million fewer jobs in 2022 versus pre-COVID levels, which amounts to about double its previous estimate from June 2021. Disruptions are set to continue into 2023 when there will still be around 27 million fewer jobs, it said, warning of a "slow and uncertain" recovery in its World Employment and Social Outlook report for 2022. 
• "The global labour market outlook has deteriorated since the ILO's last projections; a return to pre-pandemic performance is likely to remain elusive for much of the world over the coming years," the report said. The speed of recovery varies across regions, with the European and North American regions showing the most encouraging signs and Southeast Asia and South America lagging behind, according to the report. 
• Still, the projected deficit in working hours this year represents an improvement over the past two years. In 2021, the ILO estimates there were some 125 million fewer jobs than pre-pandemic levels and in 2020, 258 million fewer. Overall, around 207 million people are estimated to be unemployed in 2022. However, the report said that the impact would be significantly greater, since many people have left the labour force and have yet to return.

(Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions estimates that Jamaica’s current account deficit will narrow to 0.2% of GDP in 2022, from an estimated 0.7% in 2021, as a recovery in tourism will drive services export growth in the coming quarters.
•  This is a revision from a surplus of 0.8% previously, as the ongoing spread of COVID-19 hampered the rebound of the tourism sector more than expected. Moving into 2022, it is expected that sustained services export growth and elevated remittances will narrow the current account deficit.  
• The tourism industry is expected to make a stronger recovery in 2022 than in 2021, widening Jamaica’s services trade surplus to USD0.6Bn, from USD0.4Bn, equivalent to 4.2% of GDP. In 2021, the surges in COVID-19 cases globally delayed growth in the sector. It is expected that disruptions in tourism travel will decline in the coming quarters as the current Omicron surge wanes and vaccinations continue to proceed in Jamaica and source markets, accelerating the rebound of the sector.
• It is forecasted that overnight stays will grow 48.7% in 2022, compared to 24.2% in 2021, though the industry will not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2024. US airline operators like American Airlines and JetBlue are planning to increase their flights to Jamaica beginning in June 2022, driving inbound visitor arrivals in H222 in particular. This will support the growth in Jamaica’s services exports in 2022 and therefore the narrowing of the deficit.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Costa Rican growth is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2022, from an estimated 5.9% in 2021, as favourable base effects fade and external demand softens. Costa Rica has rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic at a faster pace than was initially anticipated, largely due to surging export growth and strengthening domestic activity. As such, Fitch has revised its 2021 growth estimate, from 3.9% previously, implying that the Costa Rican economy fully regained its pre-pandemic size by end-2021. 
• From 2022 onwards, growth will decelerate, bringing it closer to the 3.2% average growth rate from 2015-2019. Costa Rican exports will likely expand at a less vigourous pace as global growth slows, while it is expected that tighter fiscal and monetary policy will temper consumption and investment in the short-to-medium term. 
• Costa Rica’s comprehensive COVID-19 vaccine roll-out will help bolster business and consumer confidence over the coming quarters as the government phases out public health restrictions. As of January 10, 69.9% of the population was fully vaccinated, the highest rate in Central America. In turn, this will also push down unemployment. 
• Nevertheless, households likely made large-scale purchases in 2021 as stores reopened. However, as base effects dissipate and the government implements fiscal consolidation measures in line with its 2021 IMF agreement, consumption will slow in the coming quarters.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reported on Tuesday that in December 2021, remittances reached US$940.8 million, surpassing that recorded in December 2020 by US$68.5 million. Also, the 2021 remittance figures exceeded 2019 numbers by US$284.1 million, or 43.3 percent. 
• Total inflows in 2021 reached US$10.4 billion, about US$2.2 billion more than the same period in 2020, registering 26.6 percent year-on-year growth, this being the highest level ever reached. 
• “The continuous improvement in economic conditions in the United States is one of the main factors that continues to influence the behaviour of remittances, since 83.2% of December flows came from that country.”

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as investors took profits after two days of gains amid fears of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes, but the losses were cushioned by expectations of a strong economic recovery that will boost demand in a tightly supplied market. 
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down $0.52, or 0.6%, at $82.12 a barrel, after rising 5.6% over the last two days. Brent crude futures fell $0.20, or 0.2%, to $84.47 a barrel. It had gained 4.7% over Tuesday and Wednesday. 
• Some investors were taking a deeper look at data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. While crude oil inventories fell more than expected, the report also showed fuel demand has taken a hit from Omicron. Gasoline stockpiles increased by 8.0Mn barrels in the week to Jan. 7, compared with analyst expectations for a 2.4Mn-barrel rise. 
• In reality, the weekly EIA report was less bullish than the headline number, as total crude oil inventories fell 4.8Mn million barrels but were more than offset by a stock build across refined products. The drop in crude inventories might have been related to end-of-year tax issues on oil stocks onshore in Texas and Louisiana. However, losses were limited by speculation that Omicron was not severe enough to derail a global demand recovery and cold weather in North America. 
• Oil prices soared more than 50% in 2021, and some analysts expect the rally to continue, forecasting that scant production capacity and limited investment could lift crude to $90 or even above $100 a barrel. JP Morgan forecast oil prices to rise as high as $125 a barrel this year. U.S. crude futures for delivery in February 2023 traded at a discount of more than $9 to crude futures for delivery in February, moving into overbought territory for the first time since November.

(Source: Reuters)

• Delta Airlines said Thursday that the surge of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 will drive it to a first-quarter loss, but that it still expects to turn a profit this year on stronger travel demand. CEO Ed Bastian said Omicron is expected to delay the rebound in travel demand by 60 days, forecasting losses for January and February and then profits in March. 
• Airlines, including Delta, together canceled more than 20,000 U.S. flights from Christmas Eve through the first week of the year as a spike in COVID infections among crews left them short-staffed and winter storms rolled through some of the country’s busiest airports. 
• Some 8,000 Delta’s employees, roughly 1 in 10, have tested positive for COVID over the last four weeks. For United Airlines, it was noted on Monday that some 3,000 of its roughly 67,000 U.S. employees had COVID simultaneously and that on one day at its Newark, New Jersey, hub, a third of the staff called out sick with the virus. 
• Delta said in an earnings release that its operation has stabilized and that Omicron caused it to cancel only 1% of its flights over the past week. Further, the CEO noted that while the new variant is not done, it appears that the worst may be behind them. 
• With that said, Delta flights to Jamaica are not expected to suffer any major disruptions in the near term which bodes well for tourism.  

(Source: CNBC News)

• The Government will be increasing recurrent expenditure by approximately $25.8 billion for FY 2021-22. This has increased the overall expenditure to $893 billion. However, capital remains at the level of the first supplementary estimates, with some reallocation between projects. 
• Clarke said at the point of the First Supplementary Estimates, there were no final settlements with any of the public-sector bargaining groups. Consequently, the Government’s offer for increases in wages and salaries was captured under the Contingencies activity of the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service. Since then, 31 bargaining groups have settled, which is now the primary reason for the Second Supplementary Estimates this fiscal year. 
• An additional $5 billion to the COVID Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) Programme, given the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the costs associated with a Special Employment Programme in December 2021, to assist some of those most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic, were also captured in the Second Supplementary Estimates. 
• Debt-related costs also contributed to the second supplementary estimate. The premium for catastrophe bonds issued earlier in the year was not fully captured on the budget and this is being addressed under the Second Supplementary Estimates. Assistance has also been extended to the National Water Commission and the Central Wastewater Treatment Company to facilitate the repayment of maturing guaranteed debt.
• Furthermore, domestic interest rates have increased, and the currency has depreciated, resulting in increases in the debt service requirements. Other expenses such as additional requirements for the Ministry of National Security, and support to the National Solid Waste Management Authority, are being addressed through the supplementary figures.  

(Source: JIS)

• At a time when the global economy is plagued with a myriad of uncertainties, Guyana remains one of the fastest-growing nations in the world, with an economy that is projected to expand by a massive 49.7 percent this year, according to the latest edition of the World Bank’s “Global Economic Prospects”. 
• The report, issued on Tuesday, indicates a significant improvement from the one released in June 2021, which estimated Guyana’s growth at 23.7 percent. This means that within the last few months, Guyana’s economic potential has doubled, as measured by the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 
• Based on the World Bank report, Guyana is the only country in Latin America and the Caribbean that is expected to record double-digit growth this year. Coming a close second is St. Lucia, which is expected to record economic growth of 9.6 percent. 
• The January 2022 report now estimates a 2023 growth of some 25 percent for Guyana, as opposed to the previously predicted 23 percent. It is possible that this figure could be revised upwards in the coming months as Exxon Mobil made two additional oil discoveries off the coast of Guyana in January 2022. 
• Meanwhile, economic growth in the wider Caribbean is estimated to reach 7.3 percent this year, and 5.9 percent in 2023. However, this doesn’t necessarily spell good news for the region, since, according to the report, those improvements reflect a large contribution from Guyana. This is due largely to the fact that the majority of Caribbean countries are reliant on their respective tourism industries, which have taken significant hits due to the continuous spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the global pandemic it has triggered.

 (Source: Guyana Chronicle)