• Late last week, the Central Bank reported that consumer prices rose by 0.8% month over month (MoM), and 7.9% YoY, in August. Annual inflation was 2 basis point (bp) higher than in July, thus stopping the convergence process projected by the monetary authority. 
• Year to date, accumulated inflation was 5.4%, while 12-month average inflation jumped to 7.3%, its highest level since May 2012. The central bank reiterated that price pressures are mainly due to external shocks associated to food items and oil. In addition, it said that domestic inflation also reflects global supply disruptions, and that such distortions could last until early 2022. 
• Meanwhile, other indicators continue to show that DomRep’s economic recovery keeps taking hold. On the fiscal front, preliminary data through the end of last month show a 41% YoY increase in revenues during the first eight months of the year, leading to an overall surplus of almost 0.2% of GDP (versus a 3.8% deficit in the same period of 2020). 
• Total tourist arrivals reached almost 477,000 in August, more than triple the number a year before and almost the same as in 2019. On a YTD basis, arrivals totaled 2.9Mn, a 79% YoY increase and almost two thirds of the arrivals during the same period of 2019. The government projects that arrivals will total 4.5Mn this year, some three fourths of pre-pandemic levels.

(Source: Oppenheimer)

• The snap election in the Bahamas on Thursday is likely to be the tightest in years, polls show, as Prime Minister Hubert Minnis seeks a second term after the economy suffered its deepest crash since at least 1971. 
• According to a survey by Intel Cay, Minnis’ ruling FNM party entered election day with 40% approval ratings versus 39% for the opposition Progressive Liberal Party. Some 12% of voters remain undecided. The survey of 5,868 people has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.  
• The high number of undecided voters and razor-thin margins make the race one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, said Queswell Ferguson, one of the founders of Intel Cay, speaking in a phone interview after polls opened. 
• The country was still recovering from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Dorian in 2019 when it saw its vital tourism industry hammered by COVID-19. Amid lockdowns and curfews, the economy shrank 16% in 2020, one of the world’s deepest slumps, and is only expected to recover about 2% this year.  

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Wall Street lost ground on Thursday as unexpectedly robust retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, boosting bond yields and prompting a sell-off in market-leading tech stocks. 
• All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed the previous session's rally as rising Treasury yields provided an increasingly attractive alternative to stocks, and the dollar's advance put pressure on U.S. exporters. 
• "We're at a point where sentiment is weighing on the market more than decent data is helping it," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "It's the opposite of the melt-up we saw earlier in the summer." 
• Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 were lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop. Energy stocks tumbled after crude prices retreated from the previous session's surge as threats to the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Nicholas abated.

(Source: Reuters)

• The World Bank Group on Thursday said it ended publication of its "Doing Business" report on country investment climates after a probe of data irregularities cited "undue pressure" by top bank officials, including then-Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva, to boost China's ranking in 2017.
• The decision came after internal audit reports had raised "ethical matters, including the conduct of former Board officials as well as current and/or former Bank staff and a board investigation conducted by the law firm WilmerHale. 
• The report indicated that Georgieva, now the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and a key adviser pressured staff to "make specific changes to China's data points" and boost its ranking at a time when the bank was seeking China's support for a big capital increase.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% for August 2021 contributing to the 12-mth point-to-point inflation rate of 6.1%, which is an increase from the 5.3% reported in July 2021, marginally above the target range. 
• A 1.8% increase in the heavily weighted index for the “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” division as well as increases in the index for the divisions ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (0.3%), ‘Transport’ (0.4%) and ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’ (0.6%) contributed to the overall inflation rate. 
• Higher prices for textbooks and stationery materials was the main contributor to the increase in the index for the division ‘Recreation, Sport and Culture’, while higher fuel prices contributed to the rise in the index for the ‘Transport’ division. Additionally, greater electricity rates influenced the increase in the index for ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. However, this was tempered by a decline in the index for the group ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling’. 
• Elevated inflation rate is a common theme globally as countries contend with persistent supply chain challenges and rising demand from the ongoing economic recovery. 
• According to Bank of Jamaica, inflation is projected to average between 5.5% and 6.5% over the next two years, which is higher when compared to an average inflation rate of 5.0% over the past two years, and above the previous projection of 4.8%. The inflation forecast for the next two years anticipates a gradual rise in core inflation, supported by the lagged impact of higher international commodity and shipping prices, a recovery in domestic demand and a temporary increase in inflation expectations. 
• Owing to the elevated inflation level, the BOJ is considering contractionary monetary actions, specifically an increase in its policy rate to partially reduce the impact of borrowing and consumption on prices. Conditional on the gradual tightening of monetary conditions, inflation is projected to remain at 5.0% over the medium term.

(Source: STATIN and BOJ)

• A reduction in direct and operating expenses has fueled a 5.7% YoY increase in Main Event Entertainment Group Ltd.’s net profit for the nine months ended July 31, 2021, to $9.17Mn (EPS: $0.03). 
• Total revenues generated during the 3^rd quarter was the strongest performance since the quarter ended April 2020, owing to good growth in digital signage services. However, year to date, revenues are still down 37.2% relative to the same period last year. MEEG experienced only moderate shifts in business activity following the brief ease in restrictions for the entertainment industry in July, 2021, as such revenues earned from core activity continue to lag significantly behind pre-Covid levels. 
• Although revenues were down, this was outweighed by a 52.3% drop in direct expenses and 29.3% decline in admin and general expenses, which fueled the positive net profit outturn. 
• Given that restrictions to stem the effects of the pandemic will extend through to the final quarter of this financial year, and new variants of the coronavirus continue to emerge, the entertainment sector will continue to be negatively impacted. This will create uncertainty in MEEG’s business model in the near term, and revenue will likely remain depressed. 
• Main Event’s stock price has increased 31.3% since the start of the year and closed Wednesday’s trading session at a price of $4.20 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/B ratio of 2.3x earnings, which is below the junior market average of 2.1x.

(Source: MEEG Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions is raising the end-2021 benchmark interest rate forecast for Brazil by a further 100bps to 8.00%, from the prior forecast of 7.00%, in response to persistent inflationary pressures and deteriorating investor sentiment triggered by political volatility. 
• The primary driver of the Banco Central do Brasil’s (BCB) increasingly aggressive rate hiking cycle remains persistent inflationary pressures. Higher electricity costs due to a historic drought (much of Brazil's energy is hydropower) and transport costs, due to higher oil prices, have begun filtering into rising prices across goods and services categories. 
• While the 2021 forecast is in line with consensus, Fitch’s core view for 2022 is for the Banco Central do Brasil to cut the Selic rate to 7.50% in 2022 in response to falling inflation, against consensus expectations of a hold at 8.00%. 
• Risks to the outlook are towards higher interest rates prevailing in 2022, as political volatility surrounding the approaching general election campaign will risk triggering capital outflows.

(Source: Fitch Solutions

• Mexico’s fiscal deficit forecast was revised to 2.7% of GDP in 2021, from 3.0% previously, modestly narrower than the 2.9% deficit in 2020, as revenues have surprised to the upside so far in 2021. A primary surplus of 0.2% was also forecasted compared to the previous 0.0%. 
• In 2020, Mexico’s budget deficit came in at 2.9%, substantially narrower than in most other Latin American markets, as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s government refrained from an aggressive stimulus programme during the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• In 2022, the fiscal and primary deficits are expected to widen to -3.3% and -0.3%, respectively, as revenue growth will not keep pace with increases in spending. The public sector borrowing requirement, which is the broadest measure of public finances, is expected to narrow to 3.3% in 2021, from 4.0% in 2020, before widening to 4.0% in 2022. 
• Spending on national oil company Pemex will particularly strain public finances moving forward, though Fitch expects the budget balance will narrow after 2022, stabilizing Mexico’s total debt burden.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• A third dose of Pfizer’s Covid vaccine six months after a second shot restores protection from infection to 95% in a real-world setting in Israel, according to data submitted by the company to the Food and Drug Administration. 
• While the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccine wanes over time, a booster shot was shown to elicit an immune response similar to the protection generated after a second dose, Pfizer said in a 52-page presentation released by the agency Wednesday. 
• The FDA released the data as the agency faces pressure from the Biden administration to authorize booster shots for the general population as early as next week. But agency staff declined to take a stance on the need for a third shot, citing the lack of verified data in a 23-page report released later Wednesday. 
• Pfizer’s report is meant to brief the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, which meets Friday to review the request by Pfizer and its coronavirus vaccine partner, BioNTech, to approve Covid booster doses for the general public.

(Source: CNBC News)

• As of September 14, global inflation came in at 4.1% y-o-y in August according to Fitch Solutions estimates, and while it edged slightly higher from July, the agency believes that most of the increase is behind us. 
• Although it remains elevated by historic standards, and well above central bank targets, they believe that inflation is closer to peaking, and expect to see price pressures abate in Q421. 
• Inflation has continued to broaden out, and has remained stickier to the upside, due to a combination of persistent supply chain issues and above-trend growth. 
• Fitch believes that inflation in Europe will continue to edge higher over the remainder of 2021 given that inflation troughed in the fourth quarter of 2020, which means that base effects will continue to flatter the numbers over the coming months. Inflation will also be supported by a continued pick-up in demand as the economic recovery in Europe broadens.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)