• Despite the pandemic and its impact on major source markets, local remittances continued to be buoyant increasing 25.7% or US$45.2Mn to US$220.9Mn in November 2020 relative to November 2019. This increase resulted from an increase in gross remittance inflows of 18.7% or US$37.5Mn, augmented by a 32.0% or US$7.7Mn decline in outflows.
• The increase in gross remittance inflows was attributable to an improvement of 23.5% in inflows via Remittance Companies, partially offset by a decline in Other Remittances of 2.4%.
• The largest source market of remittance flows to Jamaica for November 2020 was the USA, accounting for 68.1%, up from the 64.2% recorded for November 2019.
• Other source countries that contributed a notable share of remittances for the month were the UK at 11.6%, followed by Canada and the Cayman Islands with 10.2% and 6.1%, respectively.
• For the period April to November 2020, net remittance inflows increased by 30.8% or US$446.2Mn to US$1,892.6Mn relative to the previous corresponding period.

(Source: BOJ)

• Fitch Solutions expects Latin American governments will run structurally wider fiscal deficits following the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic as governments seek to avoid unpopular cuts to public spending.
• Among Latin America’s largest markets, it expects that Colombia and Peru will adopt a higher-spending model in the medium term, because of rising demands for public provision of social services.
• Most governments across the region will enjoy low borrowing costs and robust access to financing over the coming quarters, underpinning the agency’s view for an extended period of wider deficits.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions believes the election of Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro's favored candidates to the leadership of Congress will reduce near-term risks to his administration's stability.
• However, it remains downbeat on the outlook for fiscal reforms, particularly given a focus on enacting additional emergency aid over the coming weeks.
• Market pressure could spur legislators to become more supportive of fiscal reforms, although it anticipates volatility in sentiment over the coming months.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Excess liquidity in the short-term U.S. lending market recently knocked overnight interest rates to almost zero, and risks pushing the federal funds rate into negative territory, a scenario that could cause disruptions in money markets.
• The fed funds rate is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans to meet reserves required by the Federal Reserve.
• A sub-zero effective fed funds rate would imply that banks are willing to pay to lend funds to each other, and indicate the market expects the Fed to take interest rates below zero. Even if negative rates are a long shot, analysts said low short-term rates are not ideal either as they suggest a potentially deflationary environment.
• That being said, the Fed has tools to lift short-term rates, such as raising the rate it pays banks for excess reserves parked at the central bank. The so-called IOER (interest on excess reserves) rate also influences the fed funds target. Analysts said if the fed funds rate falls below 0.05% for consecutive sessions, a Fed response is likely to follow.

(Source: Reuters)

• As the White House and Congressional Democrats press for a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package that many Republicans say is more than what the country needs or can afford, Federal Reserve policymakers are also split on the issue.
• Dallas Fed President forecasts that as vaccines get rolled out and more businesses can reopen, the U.S. economy will likely grow about 5% this year, enough to push unemployment down to 4.5%, from 6.7% in December.
• That forecast, he said, assumes no further fiscal relief, except what may be needed to ensure there's enough money to vaccinate people and reopen schools, and for the unemployed to make ends meet - an amount he didn't quantify.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the first quarter ending December 2020, QWI Investments Limited reported an unaudited net profit of $91.74Mn (EPS: $0.07), which is a significant improvement when compared to the net loss of $94.48Mn reported in Q1 FY 2019/20.
• During the quarter, the company took advantage of the favorable conditions in the USA and realized gains of $34.5Mn. This combined with unrealized gains of $33Mn and $64Mn from the US and local portfolios, respectively, contributed to an investment income of $132.43Mn, which was $225.03Mn above the investment loss of $92.60Mn recorded last year.
• QWI’s Q1 FY 2020/21 net asset value per share has increased by 6.5% relative to Q4 2019/2020 but fell 11.5% to $1.15 year over year. This decline was largely due to a $375.56Mn (22.5%) drop in the amount of quoted investments held locally.
• QWI’s stock price has increased by 23.7% since the start of 2021 and closed Monday’s trading session at $0.94. At this price, the stock trades at a P/B of 0.8x, which is below the Main Market Financial sector average of 1.6x.

(Source: QWI Financials)

• Salada Foods Jamaica Limited (SALF) has advised that its Board of Directors has approved the resolution that the maximum number of shares that the company is entitled to issue be increased from 500,000,000 shares of no par value to 1,500,000,000 shares by the creation of an additional 1,000,000,000 ordinary shares of no par value.
• Each share will be ranked pari pasu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares or stock units in the capital of the Company.
• They also approved that each of the issued ordinary shares in the Company is subdivided into 10 ordinary shares with effect from the close of business on Wednesday, March 31, 2021.
• This will result in the total issued share capital of SALF being increased from 103,883,290 ordinary shares of no par value to 1,038,832,900 ordinary shares of no par value.

(Source: JSE)

• Economic activity will remain weak in H1 2021 as the global spread of COVID-19 keeps the Bahamian tourism sector effectively closed.
• However, Fitch Solutions expects H2 2021 will see a strong rebound as the widespread availability of vaccines and strong fiscal stimulus in key source markets catalyzes travel demand.
• It has revised up its 2021 real GDP forecast to 2.6% y-o-y, from 1.2% previously, as the widespread availability of vaccines in key tourism source markets will take place sooner than previously anticipated.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions forecast real GDP in Mexico will grow 3.8% in 2021, after contracting 8.3% in 2020 according to preliminary estimates.
• While recent high-frequency data suggests Mexico's economic rebound is broadening, with a recovery in the industrial and services sectors, the worsening of the pandemic implies a near-term slowdown in momentum.
• Over the coming quarters, the agency expects a divergence will become visible between the export-oriented manufacturing sector, which will benefit from robust US demand, and weak domestic consumption due to the lingering effects of the pandemic.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Federal Reserve officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged near zero as they flagged a moderating U.S. recovery and reiterated a pledge to use all available tools to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic.
• The central bank’s policy-making body also repeated it would maintain its bond-buying program at the current pace of $120 billion of purchases per month until “substantial progress” toward its employment and inflation goals has been made.
• The revised language followed reports showing U.S. employment fell in December for the first time since April, and retail sales tumbled for a third straight month, amid resurgent coronavirus outbreaks across the country.

(Source: Bloomberg)