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AMLO Hates Calling It a ‘Tax Hike’ But Mexicans Are Paying More Published: 05 February 2020

  • Mexico’s president vowed not to raise taxes, but they’re creeping up anyway as the government struggles to boost revenue in a stagnant economy.
  • From Jan. 1, Mexicans started to pay increased levies on gasoline and sugary drinks. Taxes on cigarettes, in the meantime, went up 41%. And soon digital platforms such as Airbnb Inc. and Netflix Inc. will also start collecting value-added and income taxes from users.
  • Ask President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s team and they will say these are mostly inflation-adjusted hikes, and that the government has kept its promise to steer clear of tax increases.
  • Mexico’s economic slowdown is throwing water on his campaign pledge that more-efficient state contracts and a crackdown on corruption would be just enough to cover for spending.

(Source: Bloomberg)

U.S. trade deficit shrinks in 2019 for first time in six years Published: 05 February 2020

  • The U.S. trade deficit fell for the first time in six years in 2019 as the White House’s trade war with China curbed the import bill, keeping the economy on a moderate growth path despite a slowdown in consumer spending and weak business investment.
  • The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda decreased the flow of goods last year, with exports tumbling for the first time since 2016. President Donald Trump, who has dubbed himself “the tariff man,” has pledged to shrink the deficit by shutting out more unfairly traded imports and renegotiating free trade agreements.
  • Trump has argued that substantially cutting the trade deficit would boost annual economic growth to 3% on a sustainable basis. The economy has, however, failed to hit that mark, growing 2.3% in 2019, which was the slowest in three years, after expanding 2.9% in 2018.

(Source: Reuters)

Oil jumps 3% on reports of effective coronavirus drug Published: 05 February 2020

  • Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Wednesday on media reports that scientists have developed a drug against the fast-spreading coronavirus that continued to weigh heavily on global economic activity.
  • News that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its producer allies are considering further output cuts to counter a potential squeeze on global oil demand further supported that had collapsed by more than 20% since early January.
  • Both Brent crude oil futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped by more than 3% in morning trade. By 1220 GMT Brent was up $1.35, or 2.5%, at $55.31 a barrel and (WTI) was up $1.25, or 2.5%, at $50.86.

(Source: Reuters)

Jamaica Key Country View- Fitch Published: 04 February 2020

  • Fitch expects Real GDP growth in Jamaica to continue to decelerate over the coming quarters as Sluggish activity in the mining, construction and agricultural sectors outweigh steady growth in private consumption.
  • The 2019 real GDP forecast was revised from 2.1% to 1.6% and  the 2020 forecast from 1.8% to 1.4%. Low unemployment and infighting among the opposition People’s National Party have the increased possibility that Prime Minister Andrew Holness will call an election in H120.
  • IMF-backed reforms, including fiscal consolidation, inflation targeting and a more liberalised exchange rate regime, will likely outlive the September conclusion of the current Stand-By Arrangement. The government will also focus on combating rising crime rates, which pose a threat to social and economic stability, bolstering the agricultural sector and deepening domestic capital markets.     
  • Fiscal consolidation will remain a government priority, but Fitch notes that policy fatigue will likely limit the scope for future cuts. Revenue growth will be supported by rising economic activity and an updated tax regime, while expenditures are contained.  
  • External account stability is unlikely to be challenged by a sustained current account deficit in the coming years. Improved reserves and capital inflows will likely be sufficient to ensure stability.

(Source: Fitch)

Fitch Affirms National Commercial Bank of Jamaica Limited IDRs to 'B+'; Outlook Revised to Positive Published: 04 February 2020

  • Fitch Ratings has affirmed National Commercial Bank of Jamaica Limited's (NCBJ) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlooks were revised to Positive from Stable.
  • The Positive Rating Outlook on NCBJ's IDRs reflects the recent revision of the sovereign Rating Outlook to Positive, as the bank's ratings are directly tied to the operating environment constraining the IDRs given the bank's systemic importance in the country as the largest bank by total assets and deposits.
  • NCBJ's IDRs are driven by its Viability Rating (VR) or standalone creditworthiness, which is highly influenced by Jamaica's operating environment and the bank's company profile. Fitch considers the bank's intrinsic exposure to the Jamaican economy is high through its investment exposure to the Bank of Jamaica and Government of Jamaica treasury notes.

(Source: Fitch)

Bermuda Top-Ranking Jurisdiction, Globally, in Technical Compliance With Standards to Fight Money-Laundering and the Financing Published: 04 February 2020

  • The Financial Action Task Force ('FATF'), the international standards organisation, awards Bermuda excellent ratings (global ranking #1 for overall compliance with technical requirements and #7 in effectiveness) in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism and proliferation
  • The Government of Bermuda is pleased to announce that an independent team of experts has confirmed that Bermuda is one of the global leaders in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism and proliferation.
  • Minister of Finance, The Hon Curtis Dickinson JP MP, said: "The report on Bermuda published by the FATF, the leading international standards-setting body in this area, has confirmed that Bermuda is one of the global leaders in the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism and proliferation. This is an excellent result and a major accomplishment for Bermuda, further enhancing recognition of our leadership in these key areas."

(Source: Bloomberg)

CARICOM Heads to meet in Barbados Published: 04 February 2020

  • CARICOM Chairman, Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley, will welcome fellow heads of government to Barbados for the 31st Intersessional Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), from February 18 to 19.
  • Regional leaders will have a packed agenda during the two-day summit, which will be held at the Lloyd Erskine Sandiford Centre, Two Mile Hill, St Michael.
  • The areas to be examined include the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME); the Report on the Commission on the Economy; Engagement with the private sector, labour and civil society; CARICOM Advocacy Against Blacklisting, De-Risking and Withdrawal of Correspondent Banking; and Supporting CARICOM Resilience and Digital Transformation - Update on Matters of Importance for Science and Technology. They will also examine the recommendations from the 25th Meeting of the Prime Ministerial Sub-Committee on External Negotiations..

(Source: Nation News)

Oil prices rebound on hopes for OPEC+ supply cuts Published: 04 February 2020

  • Oil prices clawed back ground on Tuesday amid hopes for new output curbs from OPEC and its allies to offset any potential drop in demand triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.
  • Brent crude was at $54.74 a barrel, up 30 cents, or nearly 0.5%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 62 cents, or 1.2%, at $50.73 a barrel.
  • Tuesday’s gains marked a rebound after an extended slide over the last two weeks on concern over the global economic impact of China’s coronavirus, which pushed crude prices on Monday to their lowest level in more than a year.

(Source: CNBC)

U.K. Asks Britons to Leave China; Cases Top 20,600: Virus Update Published: 04 February 2020

  • The U.K. government asked its citizens to leave China, while Hong Kong reported a death from the coronavirus, confirming the second fatality outside the mainland. More than 20,600 cases have now been reported, an increase from about 17,000 the previous day.
  • The World Health Organization said the virus hasn’t caused a pandemic, but the U.S. said it was preparing for one.
  • Economists cut China’s growth forecasts as the impact on businesses grew. Macau has asked casinos to shut for half a month, Cathay Pacific plans to slash flights to China and BP Plc predicted a slump in oil demand this year.

(Source: Bloomberg) 

Future Brighter Than Ever – Finance Minister Published: 29 January 2020

  • Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, says that while “vulnerabilities” exist, Jamaica is finally in a different place of macro-stability, where its future is brighter than it has ever been.
  • Clarke, who was speaking at Mayor of St. Ann’s Bay, Councillor Michael Belnavis’ Benevolent Ball, at the RIU Ocho Rios Hotel on January 25, said the positive prognosis stems from the collective effort of the Jamaican people, who, even in the face of stiff austerity measures, remained resolute and steadfast, “putting country first above self”.
  • “There is full expectation going into the 2020/21 financial year, that economic growth will steadily return to the previous trajectory prior to last September’s JISCO/Alpart closure,” the Minister said.

(Source: JIS)