• International investors are piling back into Colombian bonds amid optimism the economy is poised to recover from its worst downturn on record, brushing off risk the nation could lose investment-grade credit status.
• Foreign demand for the local debt hit a record in September, with net inflows of 5.3Tn pesos ($1.4Bn), leaving overseas investors holding a total of about $21.4Bn, according to the Finance Ministry. It marked the fifth consecutive month of increases after investors sold off emerging-market assets as the coronavirus lockdowns accelerated in March.
• While there is uncertainty over whether a second outbreak may cause another wave of lockdowns, Lopez forecasts a 4.2% rebound in 2021. The government expects the economy to contract 5.5% this year, the worst since record-keeping began more than a century ago.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Argentina is considering fiscal incentives to encourage companies to hire workers after unemployment spiked to 13% in the second quarter, the highest in at least 16 years amid the pandemic.
• Labour Minister Claudio Moroni said he’s been working with the Production Ministry to lower some employer contributions. The incentives will probably be aimed at hard-hit industries in Argentina’s least-favored provinces, he said. The administration of President Alberto Fernandez also recently rolled out an ambitious initiative to provide some 3 million workers with training customized to employers’ needs.
• The fast deterioration of the labor market comes in spite of the government’s initiatives to offset the economic impact of the pandemic. Argentina has banned firing workers and also forced companies to pay double the ordinary amount of severance if they discontinue operations in the country. On top of that, the government is paying half of private-sector workers’ salaries to support firms that have lost revenue during the crisis.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• China ramped up purchases of American goods in September as its economy strengthened, though it still remains far from the full-year target set out under its Phase One trade deal with the U.S.
• The monthly value of U.S. goods that China bought under the trade agreement reached a monthly record high of $9.9Bn in September as oil, soybean, and car imports surged.
• That still leaves China’s purchases at only 38.5% of a total target of more than $170Bn for the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Customs Administration data.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The European Central Bank will get much of the evidence it needs this week to justify adding more monetary stimulus as the resurgent coronavirus rampages across the continent.
• While economists and investors do not expect policy action at Thursday’s virtual meeting, they do want a signal from President Christine Lagarde that more support will almost certainly be coming before the end of the year.
• Confidence gauges are set to show businesses and consumers turning despondent as a second wave of the pandemic forces renewed lockdowns. Economic data will highlight falling prices and elevated unemployment, and the sole bright spot -- a strong summer rebound in the gross domestic product -- is already out of date.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• In July 2020, the unemployment rate was 12.6%, 4.8 percentage points higher than in July 2019. There was an increase in the number of persons unemployed (54,600) and persons outside the labor force (80,600).
• The Employed Labour Force had 135,800 fewer persons in July 2020 compared to July 2019 resulting in a total of 1,118,300 persons. Males accounted for a little over one-half of the decline.
• The largest decline for males was in the occupation groups ‘Elementary Occupations’ and ‘Crafts and Related Trades Workers’, while for females it was ‘Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers’ and ‘Elementary Occupations’.
• Overall, the number of persons in the Labour Force was 1,279,600, a decline of 81,200 (6.0%) when compared with the 1,360,800 recorded in July 2019. The male labor force decreased by 35,300 (4.8%) to 700,600 in July 2020, and the female labor force decreased by 45,900 (7.3%) to 579,000.

(Source: STATIN)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) has advised of the suspension of Tree of Knowledge International Corporation (TOKI) effective October 16, 2020, for breaching Rule 407 by failing to file its Q2 financial statements, which are currently more than Forty-five (45) days overdue.
• This decision followed several correspondences and telephone communications with the Company regarding overdue filings of TOKI’s 2nd Quarter Financial Statements for the period ended June 30, 2020.

(Source: JSE)

• Moody's Investors Service, has changed the outlook on the Government of Panama's ratings to negative from stable. Moody's has affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at Baa1, and Panama's senior unsecured shelf ratings at Baa1.
• The key driver for the change in outlook to negative is the consideration that, absent meaningful fiscal consolidation and a sustained economic recovery, the sharp deterioration in fiscal and debt metrics will continue to undermine Panama's credit profile in the coming years.
• A continued rise in the government's debt and interest burdens would bring Panama's fiscal metrics in line with Baa peer medians, materially eroding a credit strength that supported the upgrade of Panama's ratings to Baa1 in 2019.
• The Baa1 rating incorporates the sovereign's still-present underlying credit strengths, including trend growth in excess of 4%, which has been above that reported by most Baa-rated peers. Additionally, Panama's ability to access market funding at relatively low borrowing costs keeps government liquidity and refinancing risks contained.

(Source: Moody’s Investors Service)

• Fitch Solutions believes the rapid appreciation of the Haitian gourde over recent weeks will create significant headwinds to exports, private consumption, and government revenues over the coming months.
• While the factors underpinning the gourde's rise are not entirely clear, the government is most likely supporting the currency in an attempt to control elevated inflation.
• The core view is that the gourde is unsustainable at current spot rates, although the government could choose to take a more active role in managing the exchange rate to sustain its value over the coming months.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Russia’s economy could benefit by up to $30Bn this year from Russians spending their roubles at home rather than on foreign holidays due to travel restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, economists say.
• The estimates are a rare piece of good news for an economy battered by low global oil prices as well as coronavirus lockdowns. Russia ran a budget deficit of around $23Bn in the first nine months of this year.
• Like many other countries, Russia also saw foreign tourists stay away in droves in 2020. But it sent far fewer travelers overseas than usual after closing its borders in March. The outflow in some cases fell by as much as 80%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits declined more than expected last week, though they remain extremely high indicating a slowdown in the labor market and broader economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 787,000 for the week ended Oct. 17, compared to 842,000 in the prior week, the Labour Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 860,000 applications in the latest week.
• Economists are predicting claims will remain elevated amid a resurgence in new coronavirus cases around the country, which they say could lead to state and local government restrictions or more people shunning establishments like restaurants and bars.

(Source: Reuters)