The U.S. Treasury yield curve, measured by the gap between yields on three-month and 10-year bonds, briefly inverted on Tuesday for the first time since October as investors worried about the economic impact from a virus outbreak in China.
An inverted curve, when longer-dated yields fall below shorter-maturity ones, has been a fairly reliable predictor of U.S. economic recessions in the past.
The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China has risen to more than 100 and the virus has spread to more than 10 countries, including France, Japan and the United States. That has rattled world markets, fuelling concerns about the impact on a world economy hit last year by a trade war between the United States and China.
Investors in turn have rushed into safe-haven U.S. Treasuries, with 10-year yields falling on Tuesday to 1.57% US10YT=RR, their lowest since early October.
Oil dropped to its lowest level since October on Monday, as fears over a potential slowdown in crude demand, sparked by the coronavirus outbreak, continued to pressure prices.
A slowdown in China’s economy would hit oil demand since the nation is the world’s largest crude oil importer —importing a record 10.12 million barrels per day in 2019 and the world’s second-largest oil consumer, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9%, or $1.05, to settle at $53.14 per barrel, for the fifth straight session of losses, and the lowest closing price since Oct. 15. At its low, WTI dipped more than 3% to hit $52.13, a price not seen since Oct. 10. The contract is coming off its third straight week of losses and worst week since July, and is now trading in bear market territory after falling more than 20% from its recent April high of $66.60.
International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.5%, or $1.53, to $59.16. It’s also coming off its third straight week of losses, and its worst week since Dec. 2018.
GraceKennedy Limited (GK) has advised that the Company has acquired 15% interest in Key Insurance Company Limited (KEY).
GK further state that it intends to make a cash offer to purchase 100% of the issued share capital of Key at a price of $2.01 per share. The Offer will open for acceptance at 9:00 am on January 27, 2020 and will close at 4:30 pm on February 17, 2020.
Minister of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture and Fisheries, Hon. Audley Shaw, says the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector is providing stable revenue and employment for Jamaica.
In a speech delivered by Principal Director in the Ministry, Michelle Parkins, at Mona Graphic Printers (MGP) 25th Anniversary Celebration and Awards Ceremony in Kingston, Mr. Shaw said the sector positively impacted the economy in 2018 with some $80.40Bn in revenue.
The Minister noted that this represented 16.3% of the funds collected from businesses, adding that the Government is fully committed to providing a “facilitatory environment” for MSMEs to continue thriving.
Jamaica is to benefit from hosting the upcoming United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Summit on Innovation, Resilience and Crisis Management.
According to Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, the focus on resilience tops global agendas, and it is through capacity enhancement that the country will be able to respond meaningfully to “global disruptions that are coming at us daily”.
“The response has to be not only just sustainability but resilience. It is to build capacity to be able to trap them (disruptions), to recover quickly from them, to build better, so that you can thrive,” the Minister said.
The Minister also noted that start-ups will be a big feature at the Summit. “We are going to be looking at examples of start-ups in the Caribbean, and Jamaica as well,” adding that a number of young people from Jamaica will be showcasing their experience with start-ups at the Summit.
Real GDP growth in Dominica will decelerate over the coming quarters as the boost to economic activity from the post-2017 hurricane reconstruction wears off.
Nevertheless, Fitch Solutions, has revised up its 2020 and 2021 real GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% y-o-y and 2.1%, respectively, from 1.9% previously, due to stronger–than-expected tourism growth and a more favorable global economic background.
Over the long term, Dominica’s growth outlook is weak given that the government’s growing debt burden will limit the ability of the government to support growth and crowd out private investment.
Fitch forecasts a modest rise in Uruguayan economic activity in 2020, led by two major infrastructure investment projects.
Consumption growth will likely remain constrained by high inflation, unemployment and the incoming administration's attempts to curtail government spending.
The research agency sees upside potential for investment, as President-Elect Luis Lacalle Pou pursues reforms intended to attract foreign investment into the country.
A truce in the U.S.-China trade dispute has left German investors at their most optimistic since mid-2015, a leading survey showed, but its compiler cautioned that the growth outlook for Europe’s dominant economy remains subdued.
Economic sentiment among investors rose to 26.7 in January from 10.7 in December, according to Tuesday’s ZEW research institute survey - its highest reading since July 2015 and well above a forecast of 15.0.
ZEW President Achim Wambach said the better mood was mainly due to last week’s Phase 1 trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. Their 18-month conflict had dampened global growth and increased business uncertainty.
German growth slowed last year to 0.6%, its weakest since 2013, as export-dependent manufacturers were hit by lower foreign demand and trade conflicts triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
This gives rise to the hope that the trade dispute’s negative effects on the German economy will be less pronounced than previously thought as The United States and China are among Germany’s most important export markets.
U.S equity futures slipped on Tuesday, pointing to declines after the long weekend as investors grappled with worries about a deadly virus in China that sparked earlier losses across Asia and Europe. Treasuries rose.
Contracts for all three of the main American gauges were firmly in the red after the Asia sell-off, triggered by reports that the respiratory virus was spreading. Shares in Hong Kong were hardest hit, as the news coincided with a credit rating downgrade and a top official calling for new security legislation.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index recovered from the worst of its drop, though the gauge remained on course for a second day falling. Luxury stocks suffered on worries the virus will disrupt spending during a key Chinese holiday period; banks also retreated after UBS Group AG missed key profitability and cost targets.
The broader risk-off mood helped spur some traditional haven assets, and the yen and Treasuries advanced even as gold fell. The Chinese and South Korean currencies sank. The pound turned higher after better-than-expected U.K. employment figures.
According to a bulletin released by STATIN on January 15, 2020, the All Jamaican Consumer Price Index recorded an inflation rate of 0.5% in December 2019.
This 0.5% rise in December was mainly a result of a 1.5% increase in prices for ‘Housing, Water, Gas and Other Fuel’, and a 0.5% uptick in prices for ‘Food, and Non-alcoholic Beverages’.
The movement in ‘Housing, Water, Gas and Other Fuel’ was due mainly to higher rates for electricity, water and sewage, while the increase in prices for the most heavily weighted ‘Food, and Non-alcoholic Beverages’ segment was largely as a result of higher prices for vegetables.
The 2019 calendar year inflation rate of 6.2% sits marginally above the BOJ’s target range of 4%-6%. At this level, the inflation outturn for 2019 is the highest recorded since 2014 and is likely influenced by the aggressive expansionary monetary policy pursued by the BOJ during the year.
