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R-E-S-P-E-C-T Published: 22 November 2019

  • In his first comments on a partial trade deal with the U.S., President Xi Jinping said Beijing wanted to work toward a phase-one agreement on the “basis of mutual respect and equality.” 
  • Xi added that though his nation neither initiated nor coveted a trade war, China would fight back when necessary.
  • Vice Premier Liu He, the country’s top trade negotiator wrote a lengthy op-ed in the Communist Party’s flagship People’s Daily highlighting the key role for the market and non-state players-- perhaps an attempt to address one of America’s long-standing criticisms of the country’s economic model. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

PMI Day Published: 22 November 2019

  • While there was some sign of improvement in Germany’s ravaged manufacturing sector, this morning’s purchasing managers data for the euro area pointed to continued stagnation in the region’s economy.
  • French manufacturing was one highlight, rising to 51.6 for the month, ahead of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
  • There were no bright spots in a dismal report for the U.K. that showed the economy’s performance was the worst since July 2016with manufacturing and services PMI both coming in below 50 and below expectations.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Growth Estimated at 0.3% for July to Sept. Quarter Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 0.3% for the July to September 2019 quarter, relative to the corresponding period last year.
  • Speaking at the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing at the Institute’s head office in New Kingston on Tuesday (November 19), Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, said this represents the 19th consecutive quarter of economic growth that the country has recorded.
  • Henry said the out-turn for the September 2019 quarter was driven by an estimated 1.2% growth in the services industry, despite a 2.1% contraction in the goods-producing industry.
  • He noted that all services group subindustries grew, led by Finance and Insurance Services, which recorded the biggest out-turn across all sectors – 3%.
  • “The projected out-turn largely reflected the positive impact of increased domestic demand, pushed by record levels of employment, increased consumer and business confidence levels, which spurred investment and consumer demand, and continued stability in the macroeconomic environment. This augured well for the business environment,” the PIOJ Head noted.

(Source: JIS)

Policy Rate Remains Unchanged- BOJ Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has held the policy rate unchanged at 0.50% per annum effective November 20, 2019.
  • Similar to the policy decision made in September, BOJ’s decision to hold the policy rate constant was based on its assessment that monetary conditions are still conducive to the achievement of the inflation target of 4.0% to 6.0% over the next eight quarters.
  • The BOJ also assured the public that it is committed to closely monitoring the impact of the previously implemented monetary policy measures as well as overall economic activity and the impacts on inflation, to determine the appropriate future path for the policy rate.

(Source: BOJ)

Recession To Continue In T&T As Energy Prices Remain Subdued Published: 21 November 2019

  • Economic activity will contract in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) as low prices discourage investment in T&T’s sizeable energy industry.
  • In addition, T&T’s overvalued exchange rate will cap consumption and limit investment in the non-energy sector, restricting T&T’s medium-term growth outlook
  • Fitch Solutions have revised down T&T’s real GDP forecast for 2019 from 1.3% y-o-y growth to 0.1% contraction and for 2020 from 1.4% growth to 0.4%.

(Source: Fitch)

Mood Sours Between China and US Published: 21 November 2019

  • The Congressional bill in support of demonstrators in Hong Kong that's expected to be signed by President Donald Trump is renewing market worries that the confrontation may scuttle the phase-one trade deal. 
  • Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said that both sides continue to work towards an agreement, with the country’s chief negotiator Vice Premier Liu He saying that he is “cautiously optimistic.”
  • The Wall Street Journal this morning reported that U.S. negotiators have been invited to Beijing for more talks. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

War on the wealthy- U.K Published: 21 November 2019

  • British opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn will unveil an election manifesto today promising radical changes across the economy, with “bankers, billionaires and the establishment” targeted.
  • For all the noise that the launch is likely to create, markets still only see a Conservative victory in the Dec. 12 vote.
  • There is little sign of any doubts creeping into that view, with sterling volatility remaining anchored in the wake of the first leader's debate. 

(Source: Bloomberg) 

KLE Group in the Red Published: 20 November 2019

  • For the nine-month period ended September 30, 2019, the KLE Group reported a comprehensive loss of $2.67Mn (EPS: -$0.027) down from a profit of $3.29Mn (EPS: $0.03) reported one year prior.
  • The reported loss was due to a decline in other operating income of 34.4% (or $8.16Mn) coupled with a drop in revenues of 1.8% (or $2.77Mn). Moreover, finance and depreciation expenses grew by 18.4% (or $2.15Mn) which also supported the weaker performance.
  • The stock has declined 44.1% YTD and closed yesterday’s trading session at $1.76 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/B of 1.58x which is below the Junior Market average of 4.54x. 

 (Source: KLE Financials)

ISP Finance Reports Improved Bottom Line Amidst Strong Revenue Growth Published: 20 November 2019

  • ISP Finance recorded a 53.7% upswing in net profit to 40.55Mn (EPS: $0.39) for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2019.
  • The upward move in the bottom line was a direct result of a 28.8% (or $56.64Mn) growth in interest income as well as a $15.07Mn expansion in other income.
  • The stock has risen 64.5% YTD and closed yesterday’s trading session at $32.90 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E of 59.3x which is above the Junior Market Financial sector average of 32.1x. 

 (Source: ISP Financials)

Panama places $1.3Bn in bonds on international market Published: 20 November 2019

  • Panama has placed $1.3Bn in bonds on the international market, at the lowest rates it has received, Economy and Finance Minister Hector Alexander said on Tuesday, November 19.
  • The funds will be used primarily to pay interest on bonds due in January, he told a news conference. The 10-year bonds came with an effective interest rate of 2.83% and the 30-year bonds with a rate of 3.6%.
  • Some of the money will also be used to help pay bonuses to retirees, he added.

(Source: Reuters)