• The Government of Jamaica has launched a project aimed at addressing climate change by creating sustainable jobs, safeguarding workers’ rights, and fostering fair and inclusive growth. The ‘Jamaica Just Transition: Embedding Climate Justice in Regional Policy Framework’ project is considered an important step towards climate justice and sustainable development.
• The two-year initiative, which was unveiled during the Ministry of Labour and Social Security’s Regional Labour Talk Roadshow in St. Ann on Wednesday (November 27), brings together the International Labour Organization (ILO) and local stakeholders to foster collaboration and implement policies to infuse climate action with decent work principles in Jamaica, advancing social justice and sustainable economic development goals.
• At its core, the Just Transition concept aims to address the societal and economic challenges that arise from shifting towards a greener, more sustainable economy.
• The initiative focuses on ensuring that workers, communities and industries most affected by the transition to low-carbon practices are not left behind. This includes providing social protection, improving workers’ rights, creating policies that meet global standards, developing a roadmap for integrating climate action, and more.
• The government envisages that by 2026, Just Transition measures will be integrated into Jamaica’s national climate change policy frameworks, including its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

(Source: JIS)

• The Panama Canal is confident that it will maintain a “solid” performance despite a possible new trade war between the United States and China, resulting from the imposition of tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.
• “In the past, despite trade differences between the United States and China, the performance of the Panama Canal has remained solid,” the administration of the interoceanic waterway said on Thursday.
• Trump announced his intention to implement a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products until these countries – which are his main trading partners – stop the arrival of illegal immigration and drugs.
• The Panama Canal is a major waterway through which about 3% of world trade passes. Its main customer is the United States, which accounts for two-thirds of the tonnage that passes through it, followed far behind by China and Japan.
• In fiscal year 2024, the Panamanian waterway, which links the Atlantic and Pacific, transported 423Mn tons and expects to increase that figure to 520Mn tons in 2025. International maritime trade will reach 12.29Bn tons in 2023, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
• The main routes served by the Panama Canal are the East Coast of the United States-Asia; the East Coast of the United States-West Coast of South America, and Europe-West Coast of South America. All types of cargo pass through it, from container ships, to refrigerated vessels with fruit, as well as bulk carriers, gas tankers, oil tankers and vehicle carriers.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Dominican Republic has exceeded 10Mn visitors this year, with over 10,005,800 arrivals as of Monday, according to President Luis Abinader and Tourism Minister David Collado. The government aims to surpass 11Mn visitors by year-end, highlighting tourism’s crucial role in economic growth and job creation.
• In November alone, the country welcomed 881,499 visitors, a 54% increase from November 2019. Of these, 667,450 arrived by air, marking a 44% rise from last year, while 214,454 cruise passengers represented a 93% jump from 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Minister Collado assured that tourism incentives will continue to support the sector’s sustained expansion.
• At a tourism event in the capital, President Abinader and Minister Collado recognized key contributors, including Banco Popular Dominicano and tourism pioneer Frank Rainieri. The tourism industry, which employs over 720,000 people and accounts for 18% of national employment, continues to thrive, with 400 hotels offering over 84,000 rooms and a current hotel occupancy rate of 76%.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Canada's economy grew at an annualised rate of just 1% in the third quarter, in line with market expectations but less than the 1.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada, prompting currency markets to boost bets for a large rate cut next month.
• The increase in GDP came from an unlikely growth in consumer spending and persistent government expenditure but it failed to offset declines seen in business investments.
• The BoC has reduced borrowing costs by 125 basis points since June to 3.75% as the annual inflation rate fell back toward its 2% target and the bank grew more concerned about a hobbling economy. The GDP data, as well as an employment report due early next month, will help the Bank of Canada determine the size of an expected rate cut at its last monetary policy decision of the year on Dec. 11.
• Currency markets boosted their bets for a 50bps reduction in interest rates next month to around 44% from 31% before the data were released.
• Economic growth came below expectations at 0.1%, Statscan said, and a preliminary estimate showed growth was likely to be 0.1% in October. Analysts had predicted month-on-month GDP growth in September at 0.3%. The fourth-quarter number indicates a slower start to the final quarter of the year, which could force the bank to revise its fourth-quarter growth target it projected in October.
• Economists noted that growth prospects do not seem inspiring in Q4 2024 or the start of next year as a looming threat from the proposed 25% unilateral tariffs by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and immigration curbs will gnaw at the GDP pie.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States on Monday launched its third big crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, among other moves.
• New controls will be placed on semiconductor manufacturing equipment needed to produce advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain etch, deposition, lithography, ion implantation, annealing, metrology and inspection, and cleaning tools.
• Additionally, there will be new controls on software tools for developing or producing advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain software that increases the productivity of advanced machines or allows less-advanced machines to produce advanced chips.
• The new rule will expand U.S. powers to curb exports of chipmaking equipment by U.S., Japanese, and Dutch manufacturers made in other parts of the world to certain chip plants in China.
• Another rule in the package restricts high bandwidth memory used in AI chips that correspond with what is known as "HBM 2" and higher, technology made by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron Technology.
• Industry sources expect only Samsung Electronics to be affected. Analysts estimate Samsung generates about 30% of its HBM chip sales from China. HBM is critical to both AI training and inference at scale and is a key component of advanced computing integrated circuits.
• The 140 new entrants on the Commerce Department's Entity List include semiconductor fabrication plants, also known as fabs, semiconductor tool companies, and investment companies "that are acting at the behest of Beijing to further China's advanced chip goals which pose a risk to U.S. and allied national security."

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s Monthly and Point-to-Point Producer Price Index (PPI) results were mixed for October 2024 across the Mining & Quarrying and Manufacturing industries according to data from STATIN.
• The monthly output prices for producers in the ‘Mining & Quarrying’ industry declined by 21.1% in October 2024, while prices in the Manufacturing industry increased by 0.2%.
• The downward monthly movement in the ‘Mining & Quarrying’ industry was led by a 21.7% decline in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’, marginally offset by the index for ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’ that inched up 0.1%.
• On the other hand, the marginal increase in output prices in the manufacturing industry was driven by slight increases in the prices for ‘Food, Beverages, and Tobacco’ and the Refined Petroleum groups. ‘Food, Beverages, and Tobacco’ grew 0.2%, driven by higher prices in the subcategories ‘Manufacture of Beverages and Tobacco’ (0.5%) and ‘Manufacture of Other Food Products’ (0.1%). Meanwhile, ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ grew 0.6%, resulting from higher crude oil prices on the international market.
• However, on a point-to-point basis (October 2023 – October 2024), the tables turned, with the ‘Mining and Quarrying Index’ increasing (+9.2%) and the Manufacturing Index declining (-0.3%).
• ‘Mining and Quarrying’ price increases were led by a 9.2% increase in the prices associated with Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing. Meanwhile, prices in the Manufacturing Industry were influenced by a 12.4% decline in the prices of Refined Petroleum Products, albeit moderated by a 3.1% increase in Food, Beverages & Tobacco prices.
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a significant economic indicator that tracks the average fluctuation in selling prices that domestic producers of goods and services experienced over time. Currently, the only industries being tracked are the Manufacturing Industry and ‘Mining & Quarrying’.
• S. President-elect Donald Trump has asserted that once he takes office in January, tariffs may be imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump’s proposed tariffs could ignite a trade war¹, driving up the cost of goods and services to the U.S. and its trade partners. Since the U.S. is Jamaica’s primary trading partner and a key source of imported inputs, Jamaican producers could face increased input costs. This, in turn, may lead to further rises in the Manufacturing Index.

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¹A trade war is a situation in which countries try to damage each other's trade, typically by the imposition of tariffs or quota restrictions.

Source: (STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Senator Hon. Aubyn Hill, Minister of Industry, Investment, and Commerce, has announced that the Government is strategically positioning Jamaica to become a regional hub for technology and innovation – a key pillar of the country’s economic growth agenda.
• During the Global Services Association of Jamaica (GSAJ) President’s Breakfast Forum in Montego Bay on November 22^nd, Senator Hill said the Government is incentivising innovation and digital transformation to foster an environment that is conducive to high-quality research and development in digital technology, including artificial intelligence (AI).
• Senator Hill emphasised the Government’s proactive embrace of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative technology. He noted that a National AI Task Force was established last year to lay an evidence-based foundation for crafting a comprehensive AI policy framework. The policy is expected to leverage AI, by integrating into sectors, like health, agriculture and education and, the Global Digital Services Sector (GDSS), to enhance productivity.
• Meanwhile, he urged GDSS businesses to capitalise on the advantages offered under the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) regime. He noted that companies operating within SEZs, including those engaged in outsourcing, can enjoy significant incentives, such as a 50% reduction in their corporate income tax rate.
• He noted that in the domestic economy, companies pay a corporate income tax rate of 25% to 33 1/3%, while companies in Special Economic Zones (SEZ) pay as little as 12.55%, which can be further reduced to 7.75% through the application of promotional and employee tax credits.

Source: (JIS)

• Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, on Tuesday, November 26, said Canada must stay united against a threat by Donald Trump to impose tariffs. Two major provinces quickly called on him to address the U.S. President-elect's concerns.
• Trudeau, due to meet the premiers of the 10 provinces to discuss U.S. relations, often notes his Liberal government has four years' experience dealing with the first Trump administration.
• Notably, Trump affirmed on Monday that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border. Such a tariff would badly hit the economy of Canada, which sends 75% of all goods exported to the United States.
• The premier of Ontario, the most populous province and the country's industrial heartland said Trump had good reason to be worried about the security of the long-shared frontier.
• In another early sign of strain, the premier of the oil-rich province of Alberta said late on Monday that Trump had valid concerns related to illegal activities at the shared border.
• "We are calling on the federal government to work with the incoming administration to resolve these issues immediately, thereby avoiding any unnecessary tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S.," Premier Danielle Smith said in a social media post.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's industrial profits fell again in October but less sharply than the previous month as deflation pressures dragged, while demand remained soft in the crisis-hit $19Tn economy. Fresh headwinds from additional U.S. tariffs could also threaten China's industrial sector next year, reducing export earnings.
• The sprawling sector, which includes mining, processing and manufacturing companies, has struggled to stay profitable in the face of feeble domestic demand hit by a years-long property crisis, unemployment and rising trade tensions.
• According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, Industrial profits in October fell 10% year-on-year (YoY), better than a 27.1% slump in September. These consecutive months of YoY declines meant earnings slid 4.3% in January-October of 2024 versus a 3.5% decline in January-September.
• Separate economic indicators earlier this month pointed to broadly soft demand, with consumer prices at their weakest in four months while industrial output continued to trend downward and new home prices fell at their fastest pace in nine years.
• Outside of the tepid economic data, China's export earnings will also be squeezed by U.S. tariffs, hammering manufacturers. Trump could impose 40% tariffs on imports from China, a Reuters poll of economists showed. If tariffs are gradually increased to 40% and not all at once, expedited shipments ahead of new tariffs could help offset the impact of subsequently higher levies, resulting in a 2025 export decline of 1.7%, according to Minsheng. If only an additional 10% tariff is imposed, China's 2025 export growth could come in at 0.2%, the Chinese securities firm said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Deputy Governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Jide Lewis, says that all banks are expected to be prepared for the increased demand for cash during the upcoming holiday season. He mentioned that the seasonal increase in demand for currency during Christmas time would likely mean that banks will need to stock up on additional funds.
• Mr. Lewis, who is responsible for the Financial Institutions Supervisory Division, was addressing the BOJ’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report Press Conference on Monday. He noted that banks are being held to the minimum service standards for the operation of the machines, which were announced earlier this year
• In April, the BOJ issued new service standards as guidelines for the operation of automated banking machines (ABMs) by deposit-taking institutions (DTIs). These standards were implemented to address (i) the availability of cash (ii) infrastructure maintenance and the management of service disruption (iii) ABM fees and charges (iv) the deployment of machines (v) accessibility and ease-of-use (vi) fraud minimisation (vii) the safety and security of customers and (viii) financial education of ABM users.
• Designed to address long-standing consumer concerns, the standards subject banks to heightened scrutiny without imposing fines for non-compliance. They mandate that at least 90% of Automated Banking Machines (ABMs) must remain operational at all times, with those in service maintaining a functionality rate of at least 95%.
• Additionally, ABMs in urban or resort areas must not remain out of cash for more than 60 consecutive minutes, while those in rural areas are required to be restocked within a maximum of 180 minutes (three hours).
• Although fines are not currently in place, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is set to implement a new regulatory framework for the financial sector in 2026, which will introduce penalties for banks failing to comply with ABM service standards.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)