• Most of the Bank of Mexico's five governing board members agreed that the risks associated with U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will add uncertainty to the future path of inflation, minutes of its March 27 monetary policy decision showed on Thursday, April 10, 2025.
• Inflation forecasts remain uncertain, the board members noted in the minutes, adding that although the balance of risks for the trajectory of inflation remains biased to the upside, it has improved. "The changes in economic policy by the new U.S. administration have added uncertainty to the forecasts," the minutes noted. "Its effects could imply inflationary pressures on both sides of the balance."
• Mexico's annual inflation rose in March to 3.80% up from 3.77% in February but remained within the central bank's target range of 2% to 4%, notwithstanding closer to the upper bound. Despite the increase, the central bank's inflation forecasts remain unchanged, and board members still expect headline inflation to converge to the target in the third quarter of 2026.
• At the same time, Board members pointed out that with uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, there was now also a greater possibility of a further exchange rate depreciation and further economic weakening.
• Banxico, as the central bank is known, delivered a unanimous 50-basis-point interest rate cut to 9.00% last month, highlighting progress on inflation but warning of heightened uncertainty relating to trade tensions and a weakening economy. Some board members mentioned that weakness in the Mexican economic activity "is expected to have deepened in the first quarter of 2025."
• A first-quarter contraction would mark a technical recession, after the economy shrank in the fourth quarter, its first quarterly contraction since the pandemic. One board member underscored that the effects of the uncertainty resulting from U.S. tariffs were already reflected in an additional weakening of the Mexican economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Dominican Republic has announced a series of measures to bolster border security and tighten migration control in response to escalating instability in neighbouring Haiti.
• President Luis Abinader said that security would be increased, despite calls for his country to ease stringent policies as Haitians seek refuge from violence wracking their country. “We will step up surveillance of the borders with 1,500 additional troops, on top of 9,500 already deployed,” the Dominican leader, re-elected last year on pledges to clamp down on immigration, said in a speech.
• Abinader added that he has approved the construction of a new section of a wall that separates the two countries, which share the second-largest island in the Caribbean after Cuba.
• The border between the two countries stretches for more than 300km (186 miles). About 54km (33 miles) of border wall has been completed.
• The president said his latest order would “speed up construction of the border wall” to add a further 13km (8 miles). Legal reforms are also on the agenda, according to Abinader, with the goal of using tougher penalties to deter those who facilitate the entry and stay of immigrants into the country.

(Source: Al Jazeera)

• Inflation slowed sharply in March, new data showed Thursday, underscoring the continued strength and resilience of the economy ahead of President Trump’s aggressive trade moves. In any other timeline, such news would stoke optimism that Americans’ cost of living is no longer surging. Instead, Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was likely another example of a ‘what might have been’ for the US economy.
• The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index, which showed inflation sharply cooling to an annual rate of 2.4% in March from 2.8% in February, lands as countries, businesses, markets and consumers grapple with America’s most severe escalation of its tariff rate in more than a century.
• Economists have cautioned that Thursday’s CPI report could very well mark the nadir in inflation this year as Trump’s massive and sweeping tariffs upend global order and make imports and, likely, end-products for consumers markedly more expensive.
• In March, prices fell 0.1% from the month before, a slower pace of growth than the 0.2% gain recorded in February. This marks the first time that prices have fallen on a monthly basis since May 2020. Similarly, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% for the month, resulting in a rate of 2.8% for the 12 months ended in March, marking a sharp slowdown from 3.1% in February. Core CPI is at its lowest rate in nearly four years.
• “The decline in core inflation in March will definitely be welcomed by the Fed, particularly as it was evident in both core goods and services components,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in commentary Friday. “But we know firms had been sucking in huge amounts of imports in January and February in advance of tariff hikes, so the shock to consumer goods prices from tariff hikes is not reflected yet.”
• That said, while Thursday’s report is one the Federal Reserve would like to see, the central bank might be put in a bind if inflation were to reaccelerate, and growth stagnates. “The Fed remains in a tough spot, caught between a trade war causing tight financial conditions and weight on the economy as inflation takes off,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said.

(Source: CNN Business)

• U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its forecasts for China's GDP growth to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 in a report published on Thursday, from 4.5% and 4.0% previously, citing the effects of tariffs.
• Goldman Sachs revised the world's No. 2 economy and second biggest provider of U.S. imports after U.S. President Donald Trump hiked the tariff on Chinese imports to 145.0% from the 104.0% level that kicked in on Wednesday.
• Although additional tariff increases are likely to have a "diminishing marginal impact", the substantial rise in US tariffs on China is expected to significantly weigh on the Chinese economy and labor market, Goldman said.
• We anticipate the Chinese government will further intensify policy easing, projecting 60bp of policy rate cuts (vs. 40bp previously). However, the report added that "even these significant easing measures are unlikely to fully offset the negative effects of the tariffs.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s tourism continues to thrive, reaching more citizens through job creation and business opportunities, says Minister of State in the Ministry of Tourism, Hon. Delano Seiveright.
• According to the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB), Jamaica welcomed 4.15 million visitors in 2024, 0.7% down from the 4.18 million in 2023. Despite this decline, the outturn has been within its pre-COVID range over the last two years. The significant economic contribution emphasizes the sector's crucial role as a key growth driver, supported by strategic planning, strong public-private partnerships, and a commitment to innovation. Minister Seiveright also pointed out that the sector's success is measured not only in figures  but in its positive impact on lives through investment, job creation, and empowerment.
• Seiveright noted that the transformative aspect of “Jamaica’s tourism revolution” is the impact of the Airbnb phenomenon, growing from 59,500 guests in 2017 to more than 800,000 guests in 2024, generating more than $32 billion in earnings for property owners across the country. This shift towards community-based tourism exemplifies a new model that empowers residents and fosters economic growth at the grassroots level,” he noted further.
• He noted that the Government remains committed to supporting this growth through continued investment in infrastructure and promoting Jamaica as a premier destination for both leisure and adventure, adding that with plans for further enhancements to transportation networks and visitor services, the outlook for Jamaica’s tourism industry is brighter than ever.

(Sources: JIS, JTB & NCBCM Research)

• On April 8, 2025, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago noted the news that the two Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) special licenses for the Dragon and Cocuina fields have been revoked by the United States Government. The Chamber expressed that it is disappointing news, but not unexpected given the previous cancellation of other general and special licenses for companies working in Venezuela.
• The importation of pipeline gas from Venezuela for processing and onward sales to international markets as either liquefied natural gas (LNG) or petrochemicals remains a significant economic opportunity for Trinidad & Tobago.
• Trinidad is the largest exporter of LNG in Latin America and one of the world's largest exporters of ammonia and methanol, but the Caribbean Island was aiming to develop offshore fields in Venezuela and on the maritime border to counter its declining reserves and secure supply. The licenses, which have allowed Shell, BP, and Trinidad's National Gas Company to plan the projects as exemptions to the U.S. sanction regime on Venezuela, now have a May 27 deadline for the companies to wind down activities.
• It is, therefore, important that the government of Trinidad & Tobago continue to engage actively with both the government of the United States and Venezuela to find a mechanism to pursue this opportunity. 
• At the same time, there are significant opportunities to develop natural gas fields within Trinidad & Tobago’s exclusive economic zone, and these must also be pursued actively and urgently, according to the Chamber in its statement. 
• There are several fields, including Mento, Coconut, Ginger and Manatee, that are currently being developed and others, including Calypso, Blackjack and Onyx, where companies are working towards taking a final investment decision. All these opportunities should be pursued to help maintain and increase Trinidad & Tobago’s upstream gas production.

(Sources: Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago and Reuters)

• The Caribbean is set to get a break from the extremely hot summers it has been having over the last two years. According to information from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, the annual heatwaves will most likely start from this month, April, gradually ramping up, but are unlikely to match those of 2023 and 2024.
• CariCOF attributes this to “El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions” in the Pacific Ocean, meaning that the ocean temperatures in that region are neither too hot nor too cold, which usually affects global climate patterns, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic.
• These variations in water temperature influence weather patterns, like how much rain or sunshine the region may expect over the next few months.
• It is also expected that April will experience high evaporation rates and frequent short, dry spells, which usually increase the chances of wildfires. Except for Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao, CariCOF expects to see a rise in rainfall intensity as well as shower frequency, around May, in the Bahamas, Guianas, and Greater Antilles (Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica, along with the Cayman Islands), or June in Belize and the Lesser Antilles, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
• “Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent,” CariCOF added. The more frequent these are, the more dryness and heat, and the more erratic the occurrence of severe weather.
• In the latest drought situation, CariCOF said moderate, or worse, short-term drought has developed in the central and northern Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, parts of St. Croix, Sint Maarten and St. Bart’s. While long-term drought has evolved in southern Belize, the northern Dominican Republic, south-west Jamaica, St. Bart’s, St Vincent and the Grenadines, south-east Suriname and north-west Trinidad.

(Sources: CariCOF & Loop News Caribbean)

• President Donald Trump on Wednesday dropped new tariff rates on imports from most U.S. trade partners to 10.0% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with those countries. Trump said “more than 75 Countries” contacted U.S. officials to negotiate after he unveiled his new tariffs last week.
• The president also said in a social media post that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125.0% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” China, which is the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, earlier Wednesday said it would increase its tariff rate for imports from the U.S. to 84.0%.
• Stock market indices rocketed sharply higher Wednesday on Trump’s announcement, reversing four days of losses. The benchmark S&P 500 index leapt by 7%, which puts it on track for its largest single-day gain in five years.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett claimed to reporters that Trump had always intended to put the brakes on the wide-ranging tariffs the president announced last week. “This was his strategy all along,” Bessent said at the White House, where officials, including him, had denied for days that the tariffs would be suspended.

(Source: CNBC)

• U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers were nearly unanimous at their meeting last month that the U.S. economy faced risks of simultaneously higher inflation and slower growth, with some policymakers noting that "difficult tradeoffs" could lie ahead for the central bank, according to the minutes of the meeting.
• The March 18-19 session was held in the wake of initial Trump administration tariff plans that raised uncertainty about the economic outlook and led participants to favour a "cautious approach" that could opt to keep interest rates higher for longer if inflation were to persist or cut rates if a weakening economy needed more immediate attention.
• "Participants assessed that uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased, with almost all participants viewing risks to inflation as tilted to the upside and risks to employment as tilted to the downside," according to the minutes, which were released on Wednesday.
• Some at the meeting "observed that the (Federal Open Market) Committee may face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for growth and employment weakened."
• Even from the more limited vantage point of March, Fed officials cut their forecasts for economic growth to 1.7% and from 2.1%, raised their inflation outlook for 2025 to 2.7% from 2.5%, and trimmed the number of projected quarter-percentage-point rate cuts for this year from three to two.
• As at mid-March, before the rout in stock prices that followed Trump's more recent tariff announcements, Fed officials were already concerned about the risks of "an abrupt repricing."

(Source: Reuters)

• According to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR) reached a record high of US$5.79Bn at the end of March 2025, reflecting a 126% increase compared to March 2024.
• This growth in the NIR was primarily due to an 11.4% rise (US$594.46Mn) in total foreign assets, coupled with a 56.8% decrease (US$53.70Mn) in foreign liabilities.
• The increase in foreign assets was largely driven by a 26.4% growth in Securities (US$422.12Mn) and a 309.3% rise in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), totaling US$179.80Mn. However, there was a slight decline of US$7.61Mn (0.2%) in Currency & Deposits.
• Jamaica’s March 2025 NIR remains relatively high, equating to 30.7 weeks of goods & services imports (26.4 weeks at the end of March 2024). At this level, the NIR is more than 2,5 times the international benchmark of 12 weeks of imports and should provide a solid buffer in the case of a major shock.
• Maintaining adequate reserves is one of the key pillars of underwriting and ensuring macroeconomic stability. The NIR reflects the difference between gross reserves and the country’s IMF loan debts. Gross reserves measure the total value of foreign exchange and monetary gold reserves, special drawing rights, IMF reserve positions, and other assets denominated in dollars.

 (Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)