• Jamaica’s point-to-point (P2P) inflation fell at 4.4% in February 2025, according to data released by STATIN.  This is a reduction from the 4.7% P2P reading in January 2025 – bringing local inflation closer to the lower end of the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) 4.0%-6.0% target range.
• The lower P2P can be attributed to a slower rise in the cost of ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (2.3%), which countered higher price increases from ‘Imputed Rentals for Housing’ (+5.1%).
• Meanwhile, the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+6.5%) and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ (+6.2%) divisions increased at faster rates. The increase in the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division was mainly due to a 19.2% rise in the ‘Fruits and Nuts’ class and a 9.4% increase in the ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class. The ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ division was primarily impacted by a 6.1% increase in ‘Food and Beverage Serving Services’, amid higher costs of meals away from home.
• On a month-on-month basis, prices indicated by the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI¹) for February decreased by 0.9% relative to January reflecting a 2.0% fall in the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division and a 0.2% decrease in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division.
• STATIN’s latest CPI readings reinforce the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) expectation that inflation will remain within its target range of 4%-6% over the next eight quarters. During its policy meeting on February 20, 2025, the BOJ concluded that the current policy rate of 6.00% remains appropriate to keep inflation within the target range and ensure stability in the foreign exchange market.
• However, the Trump administration’s tariffs – which triggered retaliatory measures from its key trade partners – and its immigration clampdown risk disrupting global trade and causing labour shortages in the US. These outcomes pose risks to the inflation outlooks in Jamaica and other emerging markets.
• The next decision will be made on March 27, when we expect the BOJ to maintain its rate, given the uncertainty that lies ahead, especially given policy uncertainty in the US.

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¹The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the general level of prices for consumer goods and services purchased by private households.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• Caribbean governments operating citizenship by investment (CBI) programs are scrambling for answers after reports of the US placing them on a travel-ban list. Four Caribbean nations find themselves caught in diplomatic uncertainty following reports that the Trump administration may impose travel restrictions on their citizens.
• According to The New York Times and Reuters, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Kitts & Nevis, and Saint Lucia appear on a "yellow list" in a draft proposal that would give them 60 days to address security concerns or face more severe limitations. None of the affected governments have received official communication from Washington.
• "I want to assure the people of Saint Kitts & Nevis that your government has received no formal or informal communication regarding the alleged U.S. travel restriction draft list," Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew stated in response to the reports.
• Similarly, Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica, confirmed his government "has not received any official communication from the United States regarding a draft list of 43 countries recommended for visa restrictions." Dominica has instructed its Ambassador to make "the necessary inquiries seeking clarification."
• The reported travel ban includes eight countries that operate CBI programs. According to the New York Times, U.S. concerns could include "failing to share with the United States information about incoming travellers, purportedly inadequate security practices for issuing passports, or the selling of citizenship to people from banned countries.'
• Antigua & Barbuda's embassy promptly sent a formal note to the US Department of State on March 15. The note expresses "deep concern" while highlighting that Antigua "maintains a sanctions policy fully aligned with that of the U.S. Treasury in all financial matters." The government emphasized that its CBI program conducts rigorous vetting through international agencies, including INTERPOL. Prime Minister Gaston Browne remains optimistic, arguing that "upon any objective analysis, it will be found that there is no reason to restrict travel from our country."
• All four Caribbean governments have promised to keep their citizens informed as they seek official information from Washington.

(Source: Investment Migration Insider)

• Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs Dr Amery Browne has met with the High Commissioner for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) to Trinidad and Tobago, Jon Dean, to make a formal complaint about the visa imposition on Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) nationals and the lack of appropriate notice. The meeting was held on Friday, March 14, 2025, at the Ministry’s headquarters. 
• The purpose of the meeting was to present the position of T&T on the decision of the United Kingdom to impose a visa requirement for nationals of Trinidad and Tobago seeking to travel to the United Kingdom and to outline a way forward. 
• The High Commissioner of the United Kingdom confirmed that the specific reason for the imposition of the visa requirement was an increase in asylum seekers from Trinidad and Tobago and gave an explanation for the lack of notice. 
• The Minister expressed concern about the adequacy of the transitional arrangements, as such arrangements are already adversely affecting nationals who have made plans and reservations to travel to or transit through the UK. Both officials reviewed some specific cases and examples. 
• The High Commissioner acknowledged that the imposition of the visa requirement was sudden, advised that his team would seek to provide as much public guidance as possible during and beyond this initial period, and emphasized that the visa imposition would be reviewed throughout this year. The parties agreed that they would work collaboratively towards an action plan to address the situation that led to the imposition of the visa requirement and to seek avenues for a lifting of the visa regime as soon as possible.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Loop)

• U.S. retail sales rebounded marginally in February as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending, reinforcing the growing uncertainty over the economy against the backdrop of tariffs and mass firings of federal government workers.
• Nonetheless, the report from the Commerce Department on Monday suggested that the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, though at a moderate pace. It sketched a picture of a cautious consumer, with sales at restaurants and bars declining by the most in 13 months amid deteriorating sentiment.
• Retail sales rose 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 1.2% decline in January, which was the biggest drop since November 2022, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.6% after a previously reported 0.9% drop in January.
• That decline followed hefty gains in the fourth quarter and winter storms in many parts of the country in January as well as wildfires in California. Sales increased 3.1% year-on-year in February. Monthly sales were lifted by a 2.4% surge in receipts from online stores. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 1.7%. Sales at building material and garden equipment suppliers gained 0.2%.
• Receipts at food services and drinking places, the only services component in the report, declined 1.5%. That was the largest drop since January 2024 and followed an unchanged reading in January.
• Economists view dining out as a key indicator of household finances. Some believed cold weather could have kept people at home. Lower gasoline prices helped to lower the value of sales at service stations by 1.0%.  With consumer sentiment sinking to a near 2-1/2-year low in March, retail sales could struggle in the months ahead.

(Source: Reuters)

• Both U.S. and global economic growth is set to be lower than previously projected as President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. weigh on growth, according to the latest estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
• “Global GDP growth is projected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024, to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending,” the OECD said Monday in its interim Economic Outlook report. “Annual GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its strong recent pace, to be 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.”
• In its previous projections, published in December, the OECD had estimated 3.3% global economic growth this year and next. The U.S. economy had been expected to grow 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
• Mathias Cormann, secretary-general of the OECD, on Monday said that the uncertainty around trade policy was a key factor in the organization’s projections.
• In its report, the OECD said its latest projections were “based on an assumption that bilateral tariffs between Canada and the United States and between Mexico and the United States are raised by an additional 25 percentage points on almost all merchandise imports from April.”
• If the tariff increases were lower, or applied to fewer goods, economic activity would be stronger and inflation would be lower than projected, “but global growth would still be weaker than previously expected,” the report noted.
• Canada and Mexico, both on the receiving end of tariffs imposed by the U.S., saw their growth outlooks slashed dramatically. Canada’s economy is now expected to grow 0.7% this year, down from the previous 2% estimate, and Mexico’s is projected to shrink by 1.3% — compared to a previously estimated 1.2% expansion.

(Source: CNBC)

• In the upcoming fiscal year, the Government will implement a new phase of the Public Sector Transformation Programme to build on the gains made in the first phase. This was outlined by the Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, when she opened the 2025/26 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on March 11.
• According to the Minister, Phase Two will focus more on digital transformation, ensuring the requirements for increased productivity in the public sector are in place, as the Government will continue to work with stakeholders to build a better public sector for all.
• Strides have already been made to improve the sector, including expanding the use of information and communications technology (ICT) in the public sector to drive efficiency and effectiveness; building a shared services operation as a means of transforming the way government provides service internally; transformation of human resource management practices; compensation management; and rationalising public bodies.
• Currently, 700 entities in the Kingston Metropolitan Area are directly connected to GovNet, the Government’s communications network, including ministries, departments, agencies, schools, courts, and police stations. The eGov Jamaica Data Centre has also been upgraded, increasing data storage capacity by 260%.
• “Additionally, by leveraging GOJ (Government of Jamaica)-owned communication assets, digital systems can now interface more easily, allowing for greater interoperability between digital platforms in the public sector. This means that the framework is in place to allow for e-government services, citizen-facing applications, and back-office operations to integrate more efficiently, reducing duplication, improving service delivery, and ensuring that government processes are faster, more secure, and more responsive to the needs of the public,” she added.

(Source: JIS)

• Stakeholder efforts to establish a robust green bond market for Jamaica are being ramped up. This thrust represents a critical step towards securing a sustainable future for the island. Pivotal to this undertaking is the launch of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Green Bond platform, the first of its kind in the Caribbean. This will facilitate the trading of green, social and sustainable bonds.
• Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation with Responsibility for the Environment, Hon. Matthew Samuda, underscored the importance of this undertaking, consequent on the “hundreds of billions of dollars” Jamaica needs to prepare for a world exceeding the 1.5° Celsius warming target.
• Addressing a stakeholder workshop at The Jamaica Pegasus Hotel in New Kingston on Tuesday, March 11, 2025, Mr. Samuda noted that with 70% of the population living within five kilometres of the sea, the stakes are “incredibly high”. The Minister, nonetheless, reiterated Jamaica’s commitment to leading, by example, the implementation of far-reaching sustainability efforts.
• The Government has already given an undertaking to generate 50% of the island’s energy from renewable options and protect 30% of the country’s land mass and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by 2030. Meanwhile, JSE Managing Director Dr. Marlene Street Forrest underscored the importance of sustainable financing solutions within the context of climate change developments.
• “Jamaica… remains highly vulnerable to climate change, with increasing exposure to hurricanes, floods, and rising sea levels, making it imperative to mobilise sustainable financing solutions that support climate resilience,” she stated. Against this background, Dr. Street Forrest said the JSE Green Bond platform “represents our dedication to responsibly investing and underscores our belief that financial prosperity and environmental stewardship can go hand in hand”.
• The workshop aims to equip Jamaican issuers, regulators and financial institutions with the knowledge and technical expertise needed to build a thriving green bond market. This collaborative approach is expected to ensure that Jamaica can attract local and international investors, thereby driving the nation towards its decarbonisation and adaptation goals.

(Source: JIS)

• The United States Embassy in the Bahamas has reiterated its stance on Cuba’s medical missions, emphasising its commitment to holding accountable those involved in forced labour practices.
• The embassy’s statement, issued on Wednesday, came the same day as the Bahamian government’s firm rejection of any suggestion that the country is engaged in forced labour through its hiring of Cuban medical professionals.
• The embassy referenced the expansion of a U.S. visa restriction policy, first implemented in 2019, which now targets individuals—both Cuban and third-country officials—who are deemed complicit in Cuba’s labour export system. According to the U.S., this program exploits Cuban workers, enriches the Cuban government, and deprives ordinary Cubans of much-needed medical care.
• While the U.S. continues to investigate alleged forced labour practices linked to Cuba’s international medical missions, it has also underscored its broader commitment to combating human trafficking globally. The embassy’s statement comes as Prime Minister Phillip Davis strongly defended the Bahamas’ engagement with Cuban healthcare workers, insisting that the country operates within the law.
• “Our laws, starting from our constitution, prohibit that kind of engagement. This government will never or intend to engage in any forced labor,” Davis said.
• The Bahamas, like several Caribbean nations, has long benefited from Cuban medical professionals, especially in addressing healthcare shortages. The Davis administration has maintained that its agreements with Cuba do not violate international labour standards, pledging to review the situation but denying any wrongdoing.
• Several other CARICOM leaders, including the prime ministers of Antigua and Barbuda, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago, have defended the Cuban medical missions, asserting that they have been instrumental in strengthening healthcare across the region, and rejected claims of forced labour.

(Source: Caribbean News Weekly)

• Guyana is considering a plan to export crude oil to the United States for refining and to bring back fuel for domestic supply and possibly for sale to nearby countries, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said at a conference in Houston on Tuesday.
• Guyana has one of the world's fastest-growing economies thanks to rapidly rising oil output at the country's prolific offshore oilfields, which are operated by a consortium led by U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil.
• The South American neighbours are involved in a long-running dispute about which country owns the 160,000-square-km (62,000-square-mile) Esequibo area, which is the subject of an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice.

(Source: Reuters)