• Trinidad and Tobago declared a state of emergency as gang violence in the Caribbean nation continues to escalate. President Christine Carla Kangaloo issued the declaration on the advice of Prime Minister Keith Rowley, who had been under growing pressure to take action over worsening crime figures.
• The Twin Island Republic has one of the highest homicide rates in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a record murder tally of more than 620 so far this year in a population of 1.5 million people.
• Organised crime is responsible for the majority of the murders, many of them linked to the international drug trade. According to the US State Department, the country's close proximity to Venezuela, porous borders, and direct transportation routes to Europe and North America make it "a prime location for narcotics trans-shipment".
• It is unclear how the state of emergency will affect Trinidad's world-renowned Carnival, which is set to culminate in a massive street parade on the Monday and Tuesday before Ash Wednesday in early March.
• The event is a major tourist attraction, which brings in tens of thousands of visitors from overseas, but heightened security measures could put a damper on the festivities.
• The move comes as Trinidad and Tobago gears up for a general election, which must be held by August 2025. Rowley's governing People's National Movement party, which has been in power since September 2015, faces a strong challenge from the opposition United National Congress, led by former Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar.

(Source: BBC News)

• The U.S. Treasury Department may need to take "extraordinary measures" as early as Jan. 14 to prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers.
• U.S. debt is expected to decrease by about $54Bn on Jan. 2 "due to a scheduled redemption of nonmarketable securities held by a federal trust fund associated with Medicare payments," she added. She went on to explain that "Treasury currently expects to reach the new limit between January 14 and January 23, at which time it will be necessary for Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures."
• Under a 2023 budget deal, Congress suspended the debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025. The U.S. Treasury will be able to pay its bills for several more months, but Congress will have to address the issue at some point next year.
• Failure to act could prevent the Treasury from paying its debts. A U.S. debt default would likely have severe economic consequences. Notably, if the government hits the debt ceiling limit and the U.S. Treasury does not have the ability to pay its obligations, the negative economic effects would quickly mount and risk triggering a deep recession and financial market catastrophe.
• Not only would this hinder eco-nomic activities, but it would also hurt bondholders. That is, by reaching the limit and failing to pay interest payment to bondholders, the U.S. would be in default, lowering its credit rating and increasing the cost of its debt. Such a scenario would be economically devastating and could plunge the world into a financial crisis as the U.S. government becomes a riskier borrower.
• A debt limit is a cap set by Congress on how much money the U.S. government can borrow. Because the government spends more money than it collects in tax revenue, lawmakers need to periodically tackle the issue - a politically difficult task, as many are reluctant to vote for more debt.

(Sources: Reuters and NCBCM)

• Canada's new finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly met aides to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on Friday to discuss the risks of imposing new trade tariffs, the Canadian government said.
• Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from Canada when he takes office in January unless the country reduces the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States.
• LeBlanc's office said in a statement after the meeting that it had a "positive, productive" engagement with Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, and the president-elect's pick for Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum.
• The meeting focused on Canada's efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration, and the ministers outlined efforts taken by Canada in that direction while agreeing to continue further talks in the coming weeks, the Canadian statement on Friday added.
• Earlier this month, the Canadian government pledged to invest C$1.3Bn ($902.34Mn) toward border security over six years under a plan that would focus on surveillance, intelligence and technology.

(Source: Reuters)

• CariCRIS reaffirmed the assigned issue credit ratings of the J$5.8Bn bond issue of Wigton Energy Limited (Wigton) to CariBBB+ (Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale and jmA (Local Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale.
• The ratings signify that on the national scale, the bond’s creditworthiness is considered good compared to other obligations in Jamaica and adequate on the regional scale, relative to other obligations in the Caribbean.
• Additionally, CariCRIS has maintained a stable outlook on the ratings. This stable outlook is predicated on the high likelihood that revenues and profits will moderate over the next twelve (12) to fifteen (15) months. It also incorporates expectations that Wigton will meet all debt service commitments in a timely manner. This is supported by steady revenue from Wigton's core wind energy operations, ongoing initiatives to diversify into solar energy generation, and the projected economic growth in Jamaica.
• CariCris also noted factors that could improve Wigton’s ratings and /or outlook to support a sustained 7% increase in operating profit for the next 2 years. These factors include: successful diversification into other renewable energy sources and geographical markets to boost revenue stability and/or expansion; improved operating efficiency and continued improvement in the Jamaican economy over the next year to support increased energy demand.
• Conversely, factors that could result in a ratings or outlook downgrade include: violation of debt covenants, failure to meet performance requirements under the Power Purchase Agreements, a 35% or greater increase in total operating expenses and/or a 15%  or more decrease in total operating revenue causing net profits to decline by over 80%.  These factors could limit Wigton’s ability to refinance or fully repay the bullet payment upon maturity.

Source: (JSE & CariCRIS)

• Proven Group decided to cease the operations of Proven Wealth (Bermuda) and PROVEN Wealth (BVI), which never fully recovered from the impact of COVID-19.
• Instead, the company will concentrate on territories where they have significant operational presence, namely Cayman, St Lucia, Jamaica, and Barbados. This decision is intended to optimise its Wealth Management business model and ultimately enhance its operational efficiency.
• Additionally, Proven appointed Stacy Belnavis as the president and chief executive officer (CEO) of Proven Bank. Belnavis’ appointment is anticipated to drive a renewed focus on PROVEN Bank’s core financial strengths in banking and wealth management. The overarching strategy involves consolidating wealth management, including financial advisory services, into PROVEN Bank (Cayman) Limited, pending regulatory approval.
• Proven’s stock price closed at $18.54, reflecting a 17.6% decline since the start of the calendar year. This reflects its year-to-date performance, which shows a 65.2% drop in earnings.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The U.S. Export-Import Bank approved a $526Mn loan to Guyana for an energy project designed to double the South American country's installed electric capacity and reduce oil imports, the Guyanese government and Ex-Im said on Thursday.
• The project, which falls under Ex-Im's mandate to help exporters facing competition from China, will use natural gas-powered turbines to generate electricity, Ex-Im said.
• It further noted that the project will reduce more than 460,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year or the equivalent of consuming more than 1Bn barrels of oil.
• According to Ex-Im, the loan will support a joint venture that involves Texas-based Lindsayca and Puerto Rican firm CH4 Systems, with services provided by ExxonMobil and will create 1,500 jobs across 11 states and territories. These two companies had faced direct competition from China to win the Guyana contract.
• The project will include the construction of a natural gas separation plant, a 300 MW combined-cycle gas turbine power plant and a gas supply pipeline near Guyana’s capital, Georgetown.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Central Bank of The Bahamas, in its Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) report for November, revealed that visitor arrivals in October expanded thanks to the cruise sector. Cruise arrivals grew by 25.2% year-on-year and outweighed a 9.4% decrease in stopover numbers relative to the same period last year.
• September and October are traditionally slow periods for the hospitality industry, though last year was an exception, due to revenge travel, following the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The MEFD report notes that “sea arrivals grew by 41.7% to 0.3Mn; however, air traffic declined by 9.3% to 69,109 from the year earlier. In addition, arrivals to the Family Islands strengthened by 19.2% to 0.4Mn, relative to the preceding year, led by a 20.9% expansion in sea traffic to 0.4Mn, which contrasted with the 17.0% contraction in air traffic to 11,036.”
• The report further stated, “Providing some offset, total visitors to Grand Bahama decreased by 27.6% to 27,605 vis-à-vis the prior year, as sea arrivals fell by 31.5% to 24,487, overshadowing the 29.3% growth in the air component to 3,118”. Overall, on a year-to-date basis, total arrivals grew by 16.6% to 9.1Mn, in comparison to the previous year.
• Minister of Tourism, Investments and Aviation, Chester Cooper has stated that stopover arrivals are being stunted by the lack of accommodation in the country. He has called for new hotel rooms, and for more locals to develop short-term vacation rentals.

(Source: Nassau Guardian)

• Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 Trillion yuan (¥3Tn or US$411Bn) worth of special treasury bonds next year, two sources said. The issue would be the highest on record, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
• The plan for 2025 sovereign debt issuance would be a sharp increase from this year's ¥1Tn and comes as Beijing moves to soften the blow from an expected increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports when Donald Trump takes office in January.
• The proceeds will be primarily targeted at boosting consumption via subsidy programmes, business equipment upgrades and funding investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors.
• The issuance "exceeded market expectations," said Tommy Xie, head of Asia Macro research at OCBC Bank. China does not generally include ultra-long special bonds in annual budget plans, as it sees the instruments as an extraordinary measure to raise proceeds for specific projects or policy goals as needed.
• As part of next year's plan, China plans to raise ¥1.3Tn through special treasury bonds to fund two "major projects" and two "new schemes". The major projects will focus on national infrastructure and security, while the new schemes offer subsidies for consumer trade-ins and business equipment upgrades.
• According to China’s state planner NDRC, the government had fully allocated the proceeds from this year's ¥1Tn, with about 70% of proceeds financing the "two major" projects and the remainder going towards the "two new" schemes.

(Source: Reuters)

• Major banks and business groups sued the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, alleging the U.S. central bank's annual "stress tests" of Wall Street firms violate the law.
• The lawsuit, claims the Fed's practice of determining how big banks perform against hypothetical economic turmoil and assigning capital requirements accordingly, does not follow proper administrative procedure. Plaintiffs included the Bank Policy Institute, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Bank Association.
• The lawsuit marks the latest example of the banking industry growing bolder and challenging in court their regulators' powers. Notably, recent Supreme Court rulings have placed fresh restrictions on administrative authority. The latest ruling in June dealt a major blow to such power by overturning a 1984 precedent that granted deference to government agencies in interpreting laws they administer.
• Specifically, the groups are calling for the Fed to make public and subject to feedback the now-confidential models used to gauge bank performance, as well as details of the annual scenarios they create to test for weaknesses.
• The groups said they did not want to kill the stress testing program, which provides an annual bill of health to the nation's biggest firms, but argued the process needs to be more transparent and responsive to public feedback.
• On Monday, the Fed announced plans to pursue similar changes ahead of the 2025 exams, citing recent legal developments, but the industry opted to proceed with its lawsuit.
• These tests, which banks have complained for years are opaque and subjective, are a central piece of the U.S. regulatory bank-capital structure. The Fed has long resisted calls to open up the testing process, due to concerns that it could make it easier for banks to clear the exams.
• How banks perform on the test informs how much capital they must set aside to meet their obligations and dictates the scope of dividend payouts and stock buybacks.

(Source: Reuters)

• FirstRock Real Estate Investments, through its subsidiary FirstRock Capital Cayman, has successfully acquired a majority stake in the renowned Crown Square Commercial Complex, along with an adjacent commercial tower, for a total equivalent of J$1.7Bn.
• This acquisition represents the company’s largest transaction to date, highlighting its strategic commitment to expanding investments in premium, income-generating properties across the Caribbean and Latin America.
• The Crown Square Commercial Complex, situated in the heart of Georgetown, the capital city of the Cayman Islands, continues to experience strong demand for retail and office spaces. This acquisition features prime tenants, including government agencies and a communication tower fully leased to Digicel – a leading telecommunications provider in the region.
• The transaction, primarily financed by Cayman National Bank, represents a major milestone as FirstRock continues its efforts to diversify and expand its real estate portfolio across the Cayman Islands and other Caribbean and Latin American markets.
• This transaction marks FirstRock’s second investment in the Cayman Islands, following its 2021 acquisition of five residential condominiums, which were later divested at a profit.
• FirstRock’s stock price closed at $9.89, up 28.8% since the start of the calendar year despite booking a net loss of $229.72Mn for 9M 2024.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)