•  (RBPF) surged by 54% to 830 incidents in 2023, representing a five-year high.
• Data unveiled showed that total financial-related crimes beat the previous five-year high of 800 in 2019. Notably, incidents of forgery and possession of forged documents both doubled year-over-year (YoY) compared to 2022.
• YoY, reports of forgery to the RBPF increased by 100% from 15 to 30, while reports of forged document possession rose by 144% from 18 to 44. However, no explanations were provided for the increases.
• The only financial crime categories to report a YoY reduction in 2023 were the possession of forged banknotes and proceeds from crime. No complaints for bribery, falsification of accounts or uttering forged documents were reported.
• The most commonly reported offence, fraud by false pretences, increased by 97% from 204 the prior year to 401 accounting for close to half of all financial crime incidents. Stealing by reason of employment rose by 55% YoY, from 56 to 87 complaints, while stealing by way of service increased by 34% from 130 to 174 reported incidents.

(Source: The Tribune)

• The Biden administration has signalled that it could reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela on Thursday, April 18, in response to what U.S. officials see as President Nicolas Maduro's failure to meet his commitments for free and fair elections this year.
• Barring any last-minute concessions by Maduro, the U.S. has made clear it is not likely to renew a six-month license that granted the OPEC member partial sanctions relief. The relief was in place from October, following an election deal reached between the government and the Venezuelan opposition.
• Washington had repeatedly threatened in recent months to reinstate punitive measures on Venezuela's vital oil and gas sector unless Maduro made good on his promises. These promises include allowing the opposition to run the candidate of its choice against him in the July 28 election.
• Weighing on the U.S. decision have been concerns about whether reimposing sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector could spur higher global oil prices and increase the flow of Venezuelan migrants to the U.S.-Mexico border as Biden campaigns for reelection in November.
• Maduro's government has repeatedly reacted in defiance of Washington's warnings. "International companies continue coming to Venezuela," Venezuelan Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea said in Caracas. "With or without sanctions, Venezuela will be respected."
• Venezuela's oil exports in March rose to their highest level since early 2020 as customers rushed to complete purchases ahead of the possible return of sanctions. 

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. dollar is gaining momentum due to concerns about persistent inflation and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates compared to other central banks. The U.S. dollar index has risen by 4.6% this year and experienced its largest weekly gain since September 2022.
• Market participants anticipate the Fed will need to maintain current interest rates for a longer period to combat potential inflation. Stronger-than-expected consumer price data last week reinforced this belief, with Investors pricing in fewer interest rate cuts for 2024 than earlier expectations.
• Conversely, other central banks like the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and Sweden's Riksbank are perceived to have more flexibility in easing monetary policy, marking a shift from previous expectations where the Fed was expected to lead rate cuts.
• Widening yield differentials between the U.S. and other economies are contributing to the dollar's rally as higher U.S. yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive.
• A stronger dollar may complicate inflation control efforts for other economies by depreciating their currencies while aiding the U.S. to manage consumer prices by tightening financial conditions.
• Dollar strength could pose challenges for U.S. multinational companies by increasing the cost of converting foreign profits into dollars and reducing the competitiveness of their exports. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties have boosted demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, contributing to its recent strength amid fears of escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

(Source: Reuters)

• British consumer price inflation slowed by less than expected to 3.2% in annual terms in March, down from a 3.4% increase in February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Wednesday.
• The Bank of England and economists polled by Reuters had forecast an annual rate of 3.1%.
• Core inflation, which excludes energy, food and tobacco prices, also slowed to 4.2% from 4.5% in February. The Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 4.1%.
• Services inflation, which the BoE also watches closely, eased slightly to 6.0% in March from 6.1% a month earlier, the ONS said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, is encouraging micro, small and medium-sized enterprises to get prepared as the Government positions the sector to be competitive globally.
• The push aligns with Jamaica’s broader economic agenda, which prioritises diversification, export promotion, and inclusive growth. “Jamaica’s MSMEs must become known regionally and internationally as more efficient manufacturers of goods and ever-improving crafters of ingenious services that people will buy,” Minister Hill said.
• “Jamaica is changing for the better and the business environment is changing rapidly. We are firmly on a path to international recognition as outstanding economic managers to add to the excellence we have achieved and are recognised for around the world. So we must keep our minds focused,” Senator Hill added.
• In a paper titled ‘Sustained Debt Reduction: The Jamaica Exception’, authors Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen and Professor Peter Blair Henry, noted that the sharp, sustained reductions in public debt are outstanding “because public-debt-to-GDP ratios have been trending up in advanced countries, emerging markets, and developing countries alike”.
• He was contributing to the discussion at the Jamaica Business Development Corporation’s (JBDC) annual ‘Breakfast with the CEO’ event held recently at the AC Marriott Hotel in New Kingston. He highlighted that MSMEs are key drivers of economic growth and noted the Government’s commitment to enhancing the sector’s contribution to gross domestic Product (GDP) and sustainable development for the benefit of all citizens.
• MSMEs constitute a cornerstone of Jamaica’s economic landscape, fostering entrepreneurship, generating employment opportunities, and contributing to socio-economic development.

(Source: JIS)

• Tropical Renewable Energy, a majority-owned subsidiary of Tropical Battery Company, has been appointed an authorised reseller of eGauge Systems.
• Based in Boulder, Colorado, eGauge is one of the world’s leading providers of technologically advanced energy monitoring systems for residential and commercial use. The company’s hardware and software systems enable energy consumers and companies operating in the renewable energy and energy efficiency segments to monitor energy usage data in real-time and generate reports.
• Energy demand and consumption data are key inputs used in modelling the solar power and energy storage systems designed, installed, monitored, and maintained by Tropical Renewable Energy in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.
• Tropical Renewable Energy's CEO, Oliver Hill, highlighted that the company has been utilizing eGauge Technology in its renewable energy installation with great success. The company is also pleased to be able to offer the full suite of eGauge products and services to renewable energy installers and end users in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and across the Caribbean as a distributor of this cutting-edge technology.
• “The addition of eGauge to our portfolio of renewable energy products and services enhances our offering and will help ensure Tropical Renewable Energy customers and installation partners have the best tools at their disposal to design and monitor solar power and energy storage systems to optimize efficiency and reduce costs,” Hill added.

(Source: JSE)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its 2024 view for economic output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.0% from its January estimate of 1.9%, though it still expects a slowdown, the fund said on April 16 in its latest World Economic Outlook.
• The 2.0% GDP increase forecast for 2024 across the region compares to 2.3% in 2023 and a 2025 forecast of 2.5%. This is also above the World Bank's recent forecast of 1.6% growth in 2024 across the region.
• The overall slowdown in growth is due in part to smaller rates of growth in the region's largest economies. Yet Brazil's 2.2% growth estimate for this year is 0.5 percentage points higher than the January view.
• Notably, Guyana is forecasted to lead the pack in 2024 with a growth of 33.9%, while Antigua and Barbuda will register the second-highest growth of 6.1%. Other noteworthy growth projections for 2024 include Jamaica (1.8%). Trinidad and Tobago (2.4%), Barbados (3.7%), The Dominican Republic (5.4%), The Bahamas (2.3%), Panama (2.5%), and Mexico (2.4%).
• Elsewhere in the region, the IMF expects Argentina's contraction to deepen to -2.8% this year from 2023's -1.6%, with annualised consumer inflation of just under 250%.
• Overall, for Central America, the estimate is for 3.9% output growth, compared to 4.2% last year, while the Caribbean is seen accelerating further to 9.7% in 2024 from last year's 8.3%.

(Sources: IMF & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Antigua and Barbuda has decided to absorb an increase in the cost of gasoline reported by the West Indies Oil Company (WIOC). According to WIOC, gasoline prices rose by five per cent, while diesel prices declined by three per cent. Despite these changes, the government has opted to maintain retail prices at the pump.
• In a statement, the government explained that its decision is based on the “refined pass-through mechanism for fuel prices, which takes into account revenue assurance, price stability, and maintenance of subsidies for certain petroleum products.”
• As a result, fuel prices in Antigua and Barbuda will remain as follows: gasoline at $14.50 per gallon, diesel at $14.25 per gallon, 20-pound LPG at $32.00 per bottle, 25-pound LPG at $40.00 per bottle, and 100-pound LPG at $155.00 per cylinder. Notably, the price of gasoline was raised just last month from $13.99 (all quoted in Eastern Caribbean Currency).
• Comparatively, the average regional prices for gasoline and diesel are currently $15.86 and $15.91 respectively. For LPG, the regional average for the 20-pound and 100-pound cylinders is $38.66 and $204.18, respectively.
• To ensure affordability for consumers, the Antiguan government continues to provide subsidies for LPG. These include a subsidy of $5.16 per bottle for 20-pound LPG, $6.45 per bottle for 25-pound LPG, and $17.64 per cylinder for 100-pound LPG.
• While these subsidies bode well for citizens, the maintenance of subsidies amidst rising prices will likely have the impact of increasing overall government expenditure which could likely result in a deterioration of the dual-islands fiscal balance if expenditures exceed revenues.

(Sources: Loops Caribbean News & NCBCM Research)

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statement regarding the lack of significant progress on inflation implies a cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed is signalling that it's hesitant to ease its monetary stance by cutting interest rates at the upcoming meeting. This stance suggests that the Fed is prioritising its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. By keeping interest rates steady, the Fed aims to support sustained economic growth while guarding against the risk of inflationary pressures.
• Powell's comments triggered mixed reactions in the stock market. While the Dow saw a modest increase, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced slight declines. This mixed response reflects the uncertainty among investors regarding the implications of the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates.
• Despite inflation moderating from its peak in 2022, persistent price pressures in sectors such as services and housing remain a concern. Higher borrowing costs, coupled with elevated prices for essentials, have constrained consumer spending and stalled the housing market. The Fed's challenge lies in balancing the need to address inflationary pressures to sustain economic growth and employment levels. Its interest rate decisions will be influenced by incoming data on inflation trends and their impact on the broader economy.
• Analysts have varied opinions on the timing of the next rate cut. Some speculate that it could occur as early as July, while others anticipate a later adjustment, possibly after the summer. The timing of the rate cut will depend on multiple factors, including the trajectory of inflation, the pace of economic recovery, and global macroeconomic conditions.
• Fed officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, underscore the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and the importance of data-driven decision-making in determining monetary policy. This uncertainty contributes to fluctuations in market sentiment and investor expectations regarding future interest rate movements.

(Source: CNN)

• China's Q1 24 GDP surpassed expectations, growing by 5.3% year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted, the economy expanded at a solid pace of 7.4% quarter-on-quarter, compared to 5.8% in the previous quarter.
• Despite strong Jan-Feb activity, economic momentum moderated in March, with industrial production and retail sales growth below expectations.
• Fixed investment exceeded expectations, driven by policy support boosting manufacturing and infrastructure investment, despite weakness in real estate investment.
• Despite a marginal decrease in the urban unemployment rate, the manufacturing sector's outperformance didn't translate into significant employment growth. Revised down Q2 GDP growth forecast to a 4.0% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted rate, with unchanged forecasts for the second half and full-year 2024. Additional stimulus is unlikely due to stronger-than-expected 1Q GDP, while structural imbalances in the economy persist, affecting demand-supply dynamics and inflation pressures.

(Source: JPMorgan)