• The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-loose monetary settings next week, putting the focus on any hints Governor Kazuo Ueda drops about when the central bank will boost short-term interest rates out of negative territory.
• As many policymakers want to spend a few more months determining whether wage increases will broaden enough to keep inflation sustainably at the BOJ's 2% target, markets now expect a rate hike in March or April at the earliest. However, while the BOJ likely has its eyes set on ending negative rates, people familiar with the central bank's thinking said there were plenty of benefits to holding fire at least until its April 25-26 meeting.
• Surveys and comments from business lobbies have shown an increasing chance Japan's spring wage hikes will be above last year's 30-year high of 3.58% for major firms - a key prerequisite Ueda has set for exiting ultra-loose monetary policy, which is an outlier among major central banks.
• Many BOJ policymakers want to check whether the increases will become more widespread and prod companies to pass on higher labour costs via price hikes, particularly for services. This is in line with a Reuters poll of analysts, who unanimously forecast the BOJ would keep its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield around 0% at the two-day meeting ending on Tuesday.
• With easing cost-push pressure slowing inflation back towards its 2% target, the BOJ can afford to await more data, such as the outcome of the annual wage talks between big firms and unions in mid-March, said the sources, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Knutsford Express Services Limited is reforming its passenger processing and boarding procedures, using a model similar to airport logistics, inclusive of departure gateways. In addition, the company has also added a digital ticket-checking system. 
• Knutsford Express provides luxury bus services and courier services across Jamaica, bringing passengers and cargo to approximately 20 touchpoints in all parishes, except St Thomas. CEO Oliver Townsend said St Thomas would be added to its routes later this year.
• The new passenger movement system is up and running at the company’s Drax Hall depot in St Ann. With the new system, travellers headed to different destinations exit through labelled gateways after bookings, and once verified by codes that are scanned.
• The business touted the new technology as an operational boost at a time when passenger volume is increasing. Overall, the new ticketing is expected to improve the company’s efficiency as demand for its services is increasing.

(Source: RJR News)

• Minister without Portfolio in the Office of the Prime Minister with responsibility for Skills and Digital Transformation, Senator Dr. the Hon. Dana Morris Dixon, is encouraging Jamaicans to consider the new job opportunities that come with increased automation.
• Dixon cited the World Economic Forum's projection that automation and artificial intelligence will displace 85 million jobs worldwide, saying that beneficial achievements are not given enough emphasis.
• She noted that the World Economic Forum also forecasted the creation of 97Mn new roles, emphasising the need for a skilled workforce adapted to the robotics era.
• Meanwhile, HEART/NSTA Trust Managing Director, Dr. Taneisha Ingleton highlighted that the agency has commenced preparations for the ‘New World’. She also noted that robotics is at the forefront of a revolution, promising advancements in industries from healthcare to agriculture, adding that “we are determined to position Jamaica as a leader in this transformative field”.
• Across the globe, countries are moving towards more automation and reliance on artificial intelligence. As such, it is inevitable for Jamaicans to adapt to this new regime to remain competitive. This includes completing the necessary trainings and becoming more accommodating to the change.

 (Source: JIS)

• Guyana’s projected budget for 2024 is expected to continue fostering ongoing growth in all sectors of the economy, ultimately leading to an improvement in the quality of life for all Guyanese citizens.
• The Budget for 2024 totals $1.146Tn, which is 46.6% larger than the previous 2023 Budget. Revenues of the Central Government before Guyana Redd plus Investment Fund (GRIF), carbon credit, and Natural Resource Fund inflows are expected to grow by 11.8% in 2024.
• Tax revenues - with the only change being an increase for personal allowances in individual tax - will comprise 95.6% of total revenues. The overall deficit after grants for the Central Government is projected at $395.9Bn, or 8.5% of GDP. Most notably, real GDP growth is projected at 34.3% in 2024, slightly up from the 33.0% expansion recorded in 2023.
• Some proposed measures in the budget include an increase in the income tax threshold; measures related to the adjustment in the National Insurance Scheme (NIS); an increase in disposable income through measures such as debt write-offs and higher social grants; the removal of value-added tax (VAT) and Duty on fire extinguishers and smoke alarms; and reduction in freight charges.
• Over the last 8 years or more, there has been a steady increase in the income tax threshold, which provides relief from taxation for individuals earning a specified amount. The new measure entails an increase in the income tax threshold from $85,000 to $100,000 per month, with effect from income year 2024.
• For the NIS, Dr. Ashni Singh, Senior Minister, Office of the President, with Responsibility for Finance, announced further measures geared towards the increase in the disposable income for citizens, including higher minimum pension and Survivor’s Benefit payable to dependents of deceased insured persons; effective January 1, 2024.

 (Sources: Guyana Chronicle & PwC)

• Venezuela's economy grew more than 5.0% in 2023 and growth is anticipated to reach 8.0% this year, President Nicolas Maduro said on Monday, January 15, during his annual address to the government-allied legislature.
• Venezuela's economy has suffered a prolonged meltdown marked by triple-digit inflation and a mass exodus of millions of migrants seeking better prospects elsewhere.
• Inflation reached just under 190.0% last year, according to the central bank, marking an easing from 234.0% the year before. That being said, Venezuela’s inflation rate is no longer Latin America's steepest since Argentina's sped past 200%.
• Furthermore, Maduro anticipates that inflation will be only 2 digits in 2024. That said, sanctions relief, which is set to last until April, has increased prices for Venezuelan crude, and analysts expect the income to lead to more social spending, likely pushing up inflation, as the government tries to ensure support in the presidential election, which is slated for this year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales for December surpassed forecasts, showing a 0.6% increase. This positive performance was primarily driven by higher sales in motor vehicles and the online retail sector, suggesting consumer spending remained robust as the year ended.
• The stronger-than-expected retail sales in December led economists to revise their estimates for economic growth in the fourth quarter. However, this optimistic outlook contradicts market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, indicating a level of confidence in the overall economic health.
• The recent data, including strong employment and wage gains in December, as well as an uptick in consumer prices, collectively signal a healthy economy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's characterisation of the economy as "doing well" reinforces the positive sentiment, providing the central bank with flexibility in its monetary policy approach.
• Retail sales in December saw a broad increase, with online retailers experiencing a notable 1.5% boost in sales. Additionally, motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a significant acceleration of 1.1% in sales. This reflects a continuing trend of consumers turning to online platforms and maintaining interest in purchasing vehicles.
• Despite signs of credit card delinquencies, households have managed to navigate high interest rates and resumed student loan payments. The data suggests that the economy, though experiencing a cooling of spending from the brisk pace of the third quarter, is still strong enough to stave off concerns of an imminent recession. With expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming year, most Economists express confidence in the economy's ability to avoid a downturn.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 due to a record low birth rate and the aftermath of COVID-19, with a 0.15% decrease of 2.08 million people.
• The nationwide COVID-19 surge in 2022, following three years of strict measures, contributed to a 6.6% increase in total deaths and a 5.7% decrease in new births in 2023, resulting in a record-low birth rate.
• Economic challenges, including youth unemployment, falling wages, and a property sector crisis, compounded the decline in birth rates in 2023, negatively impacting China's demographic landscape.
• China faces concerns about economic growth due to demographic challenges, such as an ageing population and strained retirement benefits. Despite government measures to encourage childbirth, obstacles like high childcare costs and traditional expectations impede population growth, leading to scepticism among couples.

(Source: Reuters)

• Forty-three radio stations from key markets across the United States are currently on the island participating in a Sandals Resorts radio remote, reaching millions of listeners and giving Jamaica’s tourism a massive boost.
• The event, dubbed 'Broadcast Paradise', will take place from January 13 to 21 at the Sandals Dunn's River Resort, Mammee Bay, St. Ann. Representatives from Sandals, the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB), and other local stakeholders will be interviewed on everything tourism, and allowed to promote Jamaica to the island's biggest source market - the USA.
• Senior Strategist and Senior Adviser in the Ministry of Tourism, Delano Seiveright, in an interview with JIS News, highlighted that the broadcasts, which are scheduled to take place in some key connectivity areas, such as Miami, Denver, and Philadelphia, will amplify the island's tourism offerings.
• He further highlighted the high level of visibility that Jamaica will receive as millions tune in comes at a time when the country needs to continue the momentum, from 2023 as it relates to visitor arrivals.
• Seiveright said that with Jamaica’s proximity to the US, the country will benefit greatly from the exposure and will now have the opportunity to cement its claim as the number-one destination in the region.
• Following a strong year, where the country welcomed more than 4 million visitors, the Ministry of Tourism remains aggressive in the continued growth of the sector through several initiatives.

 (Source: JSE)

• German Ship Repair Jamaica (GSRJ) hopes to be in a position to use fewer overseas workers, with the partnership forged between the organization and the Caribbean Maritime University (CMU).
• According to a release from CMU, through the partnership, there will be an opening for disenfranchised students in Jamaica and youth from places with little to no possibilities to enroll in apprenticeship programs and get into a space driven by excellence.
• CEO of GSRJ Colonel Martin Rickman expressed optimism that the programme could also help train several at-risk youths.
• CMU President Professor Andrew Spencer said this represents the formalisation of an existing partnership between the two entities. Overall, this partnership is expected to provide employment opportunities for locals as well as training and development for individuals interested in that field.

 (Source:  RJR News)

• Having secured more than 50% of its external borrowing for the 2023/2024 fiscal year, Bahamas’ Ministry of Finance said the $500Mn Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) guarantee-backed loan it successfully closed last week will support some of the necessary infrastructure, education, and social welfare projects in the second half of the fiscal year, as well as provide a “solid anchor” for the government’s medium-term external funding plan.
• The $500Mn, 10-year commercial facility, arranged by US bank Banco Santander’s New York branch, is the first time the IDB will be covering initially up to 40% of scheduled principal and related interest under a first-loss, policy-based guarantee - a mechanism whereby a third party compensates lenders if the borrower default.
• According to the ministry, in a statement released, this allows for more favourable financing terms and lower interest rates than what is being offered right now on international bond markets.
• “As a result, The Bahamas secured significant savings compared to the market cost of funding at the time of transaction closing. This structure will advance the country’s objective of reducing debt service costs, extending maturities, and tapping new liquidity pools as outlined by the Medium-Term Debt Strategy and Annual Borrowing Plan for Fiscal Year 2023/24.”

(Sources: Nassau Guardian & Eyewitness News)