• The European Central Bank (ECB) could gradually reduce interest rates if inflation falls as expected, two ECB policymakers said on Wednesday. The ECB cut rates in June for the first time in the current cycle but has made no explicit commitment about its next move.
• Bank of Italy governor Fabio Panetta and his Finnish peer Olli Rehn confirmed this view, with only the slightest difference in tone between them.
• "The current macroeconomic picture is consistent with a normalisation of the monetary stance," Panetta told a Bank of Finland conference. "The ECB duly started this process a few weeks ago and, in the baseline scenario, it will pursue it gradually and smoothly."
• Rehn said current market expectations - which are for one or, more likely, two rate cuts by the end of the year - were "reasonable" but only "on the condition that the disinflationary process will continue as projected".
• The ECB sees inflation oscillating above its 2% target for the rest of this year, but sees a downward trend restarting next year, with price growth moving to 2% by the close of 2025. Markets broadly expect rate cuts in September and December, taking the ECB's deposit rate to 3.25% from its 4.0% peak. The ECB’s most recent cut to 3.75% occurred on June 6.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon Edmund Bartlett welcomed the news that United Airlines has increased its total flights to Jamaica by over 50% since 2019. The disclosure was made during last week's meeting with the Airline’s top brass, the Minister and his Senior Executives at United’s World Headquarters.
• United Airlines is a major American airline headquartered at the Willis Tower in Chicago, Illinois. It operates an extensive domestic and international route network across the United States, connecting six continents from its seven US mainland hubs.
• “Jamaica continues to be in high demand and this increase by one of the largest US airlines proves that the partnership between the destination and airline has been fruitful and is strong. We pride ourselves on being one of the most connected destinations through our network of airline partners who form a core part of driving our tourism growth,” said, Minister Bartlett.
• In 2024, United Airlines plans to significantly expand its flight schedule to Jamaica, particularly to Sangster International Airport (MBJ). This marks a 15% increase from 2023, with up to 34 weekly flights scheduled from five of United's hubs. MBJ remains a crucial destination for the airline, ranking as its third-largest Caribbean location.
• “Without airlift, we cannot grow our tourism product and so we rely on these types of partnerships to create mutually beneficial outcomes. Jamaica is in a good position regarding its phenomenal post-COVID growth and with this consistent demand for the island, we are optimistic about our tourism outlook,” said, Minister Bartlett.
• Summer is gearing up to be very robust as some of the Airlines’ hubs, New York/Newark, Houston, Washington D.C./Dulles, Chicago, and Denver, experience strong load factors for travel to Jamaica. This augurs well for Jamaica's tourism sector, building on the record-breaking year of 2023 to meet its goal of earning US$5 billion from five million tourist arrivals within a targeted five-year period ending in 2025.

(Source: JIS &NCBCM Research)

• Diaspora members are encouraged to sign up for government business missions as the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce commences engagements in some non-traditional markets in July.
• Over the past year, the Ministry has led export and investment business missions to the Caribbean, the United States, Canada and London.
• “This year, we’re doing a lot of non-traditional markets. So next month, we’re doing Latin America, Mexico, Colombia, Costa Rica, and El Salvador, and at the end of August into early September, we will be doing Nigeria, Ghana, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone,” Jamaica Promotions Corporation (JAMPRO) President, Shullette Cox, advised.
• Cox further emphasized that the objective of the business mission is two-fold. “We’re not just going there talking about Jamaica and what a wonderful place we are to invest. We are also bringing with us, business people from Jamaica whom we will put in contact with business people in those countries with a view to exporting to [those territories] or developing business partnerships,” she stated.
• This year’s Diaspora Conference was held from June 16 to 19 under the theme ‘United for Jamaica’s Transformation: Fostering Peace, Productivity, and Youth Empowerment’.

 (Source: JIS)

• As heavy rains continue to pummel Chile, cutting off areas of the country and damaging thousands of homes, one community is dealing with a tailings dam rupture that has sent heavy metals throughout the community and nearby water supplies.
• A tailings dam belonging to copper miner Las Cenizas in central Chile began overflowing overnight on June 13 due to heavy rains and put nearby water sources, including the La Ligua River at risk of "adverse effects," Chile's environmental SMA agency said in a statement.
• Residents of Cabildo, an agricultural area known for producing avocados are worried about the impact the overflow will have on their livelihood. Citizens expressed their worries in meetings with government officials and representatives from the mining company, which were working to rebuild the containment wall that overflowed.
• After yielding 0% growth in 2023, Chile’s growth is expected to pick up to close to 2% in 2024 and 2-2.5% in the medium term. This growth will be supported by Chile’s comparative advantage in renewable energy production, as it is the world’s largest copper producer, second largest lithium producer, and richly endowed with solar and wind resources.
• However, if current weather conditions persist, it could impact Chile’s economic growth by reducing copper output and agricultural production.

 (Sources: Reuters & NCBCM Research)

• Bahamas’ initiative of allowing visa-free access to 157 countries has significantly boosted tourism, leading to unprecedented growth in the sector.
• This visa-free policy has been instrumental in establishing The Bahamas as a prime destination for various travel segments like business, luxury, and event travel. By making it easier to access the island, The Bahamas has simplified travel logistics and positioned itself as a top global hotspot in the tourism industry.
• In 2023, the total number of tourists reached 9,654,838, setting a new record and surpassing prior expectations. This number represents a 38% increase from 2022 and a 33% surge from the previous record set in 2019.
• Further, the significant uptick in tourism was supported by a 17% increase in foreign air arrivals, totalling 1.72Mn in 2023 compared to 1.47Mn in 2022. This growth highlights The Bahamas as a premier travel destination.
• Additionally, April 2024 saw a remarkable increase in cruise tourism, with 3.21Mn cruise visitors, up 14.8% from 2.80Mn in April 2023. Cruise tourism plays a crucial role in the Bahamian economy, contributing about 40% to the GDP and generating over US$2Bn annually from visitor spending.

(Source: Travel and Tour World)

• According to a survey from the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook. However, households remained upbeat about the labour market and expect inflation to moderate over the next year. The mixed survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday also showed that consumers' perceived likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months retreated in June after rising in April and May.
• Labour market resilience is driving consumer spending, underpinning the economy despite the Federal Reserve's hefty interest-rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to quell inflation. Though fewer consumers planned to buy vehicles and household appliances over the next six months, more plan to go on vacation.
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dipped to 100.4 this month from a downwardly revised 101.3 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index slipping to 100.0 from the previously reported 102.0. The drop in confidence was concentrated in the 35-54 age group. Confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 years and older.
• The Conference Board said there was no clear pattern for income groups, but noted that on a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among the under-35 age cohort and those with annual incomes of more than $100,000.
• The share of consumers planning to buy a home was unchanged at a relatively low level for a fourth straight month. That is consistent with so-called hard data on home building and sales, which have shown the housing market regressing since residential investment notched double-digit growth in the first quarter. Higher mortgage rates and house prices are stifling demand. However, house-price appreciation could slow as reduced affordability weighs on demand for housing, contributing to a rise in supply.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer prices in Canada took an unexpected turn and rose in May, data showed on Tuesday, after showing signs of an almost consistent cooling since the start of the year, forcing markets to trim hopes of a rate cut in July to below 50.0%. The Bank of Canada, which cut interest rates for the first time in four years this month, has repeatedly maintained that the path towards further rate easing would be data-dependent and May's inflation data dampens the chance of an immediate rate cut.
• In May, the annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7% a month ago. Key measures of core inflation edged up for the first time in five months, according to Statistics Canada. As a result, money markets heavily trimmed their bets and now see a 45% chance of a rate cut in July, from over 70% seen on Monday.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to cool to 2.6%. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.6%, exceeding a 0.3% rise forecast. The surprise acceleration in headline inflation was driven by prices for services, including cellular services, travel tours, rent and air transportation.
• CPI-median and CPI-trim, the Bank of Canada's preferred measures of underlying inflation, rose for the first time since December, contrary to market expectations. The CPI-median sped up to 2.8% from 2.6% in April while CPI-trim accelerated to 2.9% from 2.8%. Economists had forecast CPI-median to remain at 2.6% and CPI-trim to be 2.8%.
• Excluding volatile food and energy, prices rose 2.9% compared with a 2.7% rise in April. Service prices increased 4.6% in May, compared with a 4.2% rise in April, while goods inflation remained at 1%. Mortgage costs continued to rise due to higher interest rates, but the pace slowed marginally to 23.3%. Rental inflation, however, soared to 8.9% after slowing to 8.2% in April.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica’s economy has improved its ability to respond to shocks over the last decade, says Prime Minister (PM) the Most Hon. Andrew Holness.
• “Jamaica has changed quite a bit in the last decade to the point where we can withstand some shocks. It’s not every shock that we will be able to withstand, but if we continue to grow our economy and run our public bodies well so that they have strong balance sheets, then they will be able to respond to shocks and crises,” PM Holness said.
• The PM addressed a meeting at the Ocho Rios Cruise Terminal in St. Ann on Friday (June 21). During his visit, PM Holness inspected a section of the pier that had recently sustained damage. In February, the cruise ship Carnival Magic collided with the pier, causing damage to the breasting dolphins and concrete berthing structure due to rough seas.
• “If this had occurred 10 years ago, the conversation would not be ‘when are we going to finish’, but ‘when are we going to start,’ and I need to remind Jamaicans of this. If this had happened 10 years ago, the question would not be ‘how much is it going to cost’, but ‘how are we going to borrow to fix it’,” he pointed out.
• PM Holness said the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) has the responsibility to ensure Jamaica’s resilience in the cruise shipping market, particularly regarding the readiness of its port infrastructure. “The PAJ is one of our well-run public institutions, meaning it has a balance sheet that can support the cost of resilience. PM Holness stated that the importance of having a good economy or running a good entity “is what gives you the ability to withstand shocks,”.
• PM Holness also noted that consultants conducted all the necessary tests to advise on the engineering needed to do the repairs. He urged individuals reliant on cruise shipping in the town to understand that there is a process to ensure that when the infrastructure is rebuilt, it can withstand future crises. He emphasized that the damage to the structure provided an opportunity to re-engineer, re-craft, and expand what exists.

(Source: JIS)

• Artificial Intelligence (AI), the latest global phenomenon, was a major focus at the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s (CTO) Caribbean Week in New York, where a Ministerial forum looked at leveraging AI for tourism development.
• Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett emphasized AI's potential to revolutionize Caribbean tourism and promote seamless experiences within the industry.
• Speaking at the forum titled ‘Leveraging Artificial Intelligence’ at the Intercontinental Hotel in New York on Tuesday, the Minister said: “The human race has always created better ways of doing things, and AI forms part of this era of doing things better through technological applications.”
• The Ministerial panel, which was part of the CTO Caribbean Week program, included Hon. Chester Cooper, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Tourism, Investments, and Aviation for the Bahamas; Hon. Kenneth Bryan, CTO Chairman and Minister of Tourism and Ports for the Cayman Islands; and Lee Hall, Founder of Clarity Media.
• Minister Bartlett, along with his senior tourism executives are in the US on a multi-city marketing blitz that covers New York, Chicago, and Dallas. The engagement includes participation at CTO Caribbean Week, meetings with airline partners, and media interviews.

 (Source: JIS)

• The Financial Technology (Fintech) sector, which comprises companies that use technology for financial services, grew 340% between 2017 and 2023 in Latin America and the Caribbean and now exceeds 3,000 startups, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• Specifically, the number of startups went from 703 companies in 18 countries in 2017 to 3,069 in 26 states in 2023, according to an IDB and the company Finnovista in the framework of the fifth annual meeting of FintechLAC, held in Bogota.
• The study indicates that this growth was due to the high demand from financial consumers, the state of the financial digital infrastructure, and the availability of a specialised workforce.
• Brazil continues to have the highest number of fintech startups, with 24% of the total, followed by Mexico (20%), Colombia (13%), and Argentina and Chile with 10% each.
• The countries that grew the most in this area in the last two years were Peru, with 5.3% of the number of companies, followed by Ecuador (3%) and the Dominican Republic (2.1%). The latter, along with Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Guatemala, can be considered emerging markets in the Fintech ecosystem and are developing “with remarkable dynamism,” the IDB said in a statement.
• Finally, the set made up of Panama, Bahamas, Paraguay, El Salvador, Bolivia, Jamaica, Honduras, Venezuela, Belize, Barbados, Nicaragua, Guyana, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname represent 8.1% of Fintech startups.

 (Source: Dominican Today & IDB)