• Guyana now produces more hydrocarbons in the Caribbean region than veteran producer Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) according to recent data. Data from T&T's Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries shows oil and condensate production of 50,246 barrels per day (b/d) in the first four months of 2024. Gas production in the same period averaged almost 2.6Bn standard cubic feet per day (mscf/d) for T&T. Collectively, this amounts to approximately 484,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).
• Trinidad's hydrocarbon production is on a steady decline, down from approximately 719,000 boe/d in 2015. Notwithstanding, Trinidad is hoping cross-border cooperation with Venezuela brings some gas projects to fruition to help buoy its declining output, including the highly anticipated Dragon project.
• Guyana, on the other hand, started oil production in December 2019 and is experiencing significant annual increases. ExxonMobil, the sole operator with projects in production, has added an average of 98,000 b/d in the period 2020-2024.
• In the first four months of 2024, oil production averaged 616,000 b/d. Considering data for May-June, the half-year average jumps to 623,000 b/d, based on data from the Ministry of Natural Resources. While the standardised conversion of hydrocarbons into barrels of oil equivalent per day makes the comparison simple, oil and gas differ significantly in their market value, applications, and the products derived from them.
• Oil is primarily refined into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, with a significant portion also used in the production of petrochemicals. Natural gas, which makes up the bulk of Trinidad's production, is in contrast predominantly used for electricity generation, heating, and as a feedstock for chemical production, including fertilisers.
• Yet, the comparison highlights a significant turning point in the Caribbean's energy landscape. Trinidad and Tobago, a veteran producer with over a century of industry experience, is now seeing its production decline as its reserves mature. Meanwhile, Guyana, having commenced production only five years ago, is experiencing an oil boom.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) released its visitor metrics for the first half of 2024, revealing significant growth in both air and cruise arrivals, alongside increased visitor spending and notable shifts in travel trends.
• According to officials, Bermuda welcomed a total of 61,619 leisure air visitors during the first six months of 2024, marking an 11.4% increase over the same period in 2023. These visitors contributed an estimated $132.3Mn to the local economy, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%, with an average spending of $2,147 per person.
• Although the average length of stay decreased slightly to 6.13 days from 6.4 days in 2023, and hotel occupancy dipped by less than 1 percentage point compared to the previous year, the island’s hotels saw a 9% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR). This is reflected in higher spending by visitors, which continues to support the local hospitality industry.
• Cruise tourism also experienced robust growth, with Bermuda welcoming 234,790 cruise passengers in the first half of 2024, an increase of 12.3% over 2023. This influx of cruise visitors has contributed to the island’s economy, particularly for local service providers, entertainment, and the transportation sector.
• Further, the sovereign now boasts the highest number of direct routes in its history, with sixteen at the peak this summer. Air capacity to Bermuda for the first half of the year was up 28% and, for several months, exceeded the numbers seen in 2019.
• Tracy Berkeley, CEO of Bermuda Tourism Authority said, “The first half of 2024 has shown promising growth across our key tourism measures. The increase in visitor spending, the rise in air, cruise and yacht arrivals, and the rebound in leisure travel demonstrate the resilience and appeal of Bermuda as a premier destination.

 (Source: BerNews)

• Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech has turned Sept. 6 and Sept. 18 into the two most important dates for U.S. monetary policy in years, as events on both days center on the Fed's new guiding light: the unemployment rate. The first marks the release of the August non-farm payrolls report, and the second will see the Fed's much-anticipated interest rate decision and, just as crucially, its updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
• Powell essentially made two pivots in Jackson Hole. The first, as expected, is his clear signaling that a rate cut is forthcoming. The second, perhaps less anticipated, is his equally clear emphasis that unemployment, not inflation, is now the number one determinant of upcoming policy decisions.
• However, Powell's warning that the Fed does "not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions" basically means the current unemployment rate of 4.3% – which is still fairly low by historical standards – is now a "line in the sand" that, if crossed, will likely trigger a policy response.
• "The unemployment rate is now around 90% of the Fed's dual mandate, inflation is about 10%," said John Silvia, founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy, adding that Powell's pivot to unemployment from inflation is remarkable considering the economy isn't in recession.
• There's more than one way of measuring the strength or otherwise of the labor market and, by extension, the economy. They include nominal job growth, the ebb and flow of the labor force, and one of the Fed's favorites since the COVID-19 pandemic: the JOLTS estimates of outsized quits and job openings. But for the public, markets at large and politicians, the unemployment rate offers the clearest picture of how well the labor market is holding up.
• Market participants are firmly pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 18 meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 63.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with 36.5% pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. single-family home prices fell in June, leading to the smallest annual increase in nearly a year, as higher mortgage rates pushed buyers to the sidelines and boosted housing supply.
• House prices dipped 0.1% on a month-on-month basis after being unchanged in May, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said on Tuesday. They increased 5.1% in the 12 months through June, the smallest year-on-year rise since July 2023, after advancing by an upwardly revised 5.9% in May.
• The rise in annual house prices was previously reported to have been 5.7% in May. Prices were up 0.9% in the second quarter compared to the January-March quarter. They increased 5.7% between the second quarter of 2023 and the April-June quarter this year.
• House price inflation is likely to moderate further in the months’ ahead as new housing supply has surged to levels last seen in early 2008. The existing homes inventory has also risen to the highest level in nearly four years.
• An outright decline in house prices is, however, unlikely in the absence of significant labor market deterioration. Lower mortgages, with the Federal Reserve expected to begin its interest rate cutting cycle next month, should boost demand and absorb some of the excess inventory.
• All nine census regions recorded annual house price gains in June, with big increases in the Middle Atlantic, East North Central, New England, and East South areas. Prices in the West South-Central region trailed with a 2.7% increase.

(Source: Reuters)

• United Oil & Gas Plc (AIM: "UOG"), the oil and gas company with a high impact exploration asset in Jamaica and a development asset in the UK has noted the recent rumours circulating in Jamaica media regarding its Walton Morant licence.
• United confirms that it has drilled no wells in the Walton Morant licence and therefore, no commercial oil or gas discovery has been made. United holds a 100% working interest and is currently engaged in a farm-out process. United's 2024 work programme is focused on conducting piston core sampling, which aims to detect any oil residue before considering future exploration drilling targets.
• Brian Larkin, United Chief Executive Officer, commented: "The Walton-Morant Licence is a vast exploration area containing numerous promising prospects. We are committed to improving our understanding of the resource potential within the licence area.”
• He further noted that, “We continue working to secure a strategic partner to unlock the immense potential within the licence, including recent positive interest that has been shown by several parties. Following securing an extension to the licence, our 2024 work programme is underway, and we will update the market at the next suitable opportunity."

(Source: United Oil & Gas)

• Tropical Battery Company Limited announced the appointment of Mrs. Jody Gager-Rose as a new director to the Board of Tropical Battery Company Limited, effective August 8, 2024.
• Jody Gager-Rose is a distinguished finance professional with over 21 years of experience in accounting, including 9 years at a senior management level. She holds an MBA from Heriot Watt University and is a Fellow Chartered Certified Accountant (FCCA) and a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Jamaica (FCA).
• Jody’s expertise lies in International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), with a proven track record in preparing standalone and consolidated financial statements, particularly within the travel, leisure, and tourism sector.
• Her career highlights include her tenure as Chief Financial Officer, where she oversaw the accounting, purchasing, and IT departments. At a big four audit firm, Jody rose to the position of Director, where she supported audit business operations across the Caricom region.
• Tropical’s stock price has increased 24.6% since the start of the calendar year and closed at $2.43 on Tuesday, August 27th. At this price, it currently trades at a P/E of 15.38x earnings, which is below the junior market distribution sector average of 18.58x earnings.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Barbados is enjoying a record-breaking year for tourist arrivals, thanks in large part to the recently concluded ICC T20 Cricket World Cup and the popular Crop Over festival.
• Javon Griffith, president of the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) posit noted at the association’s quarterly media update that “Tourist arrivals are expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in all markets. This is supported by the ICC World Cup, Crop Over, and increased airlift capacity into Barbados this year.” He further noted that “The appetite for Barbados remains very strong, with early forward bookings from major source markets exceeding 2023 by 18%.”
• From January to June 2024, the island welcomed 381,997 stayover arrivals, a 15% increase from the 323,948 arrivals during the same period in 2023, the BHTA head said, quoting figures from the Barbados Statistical Service. Notably, arrivals from CARICOM countries increased by 16%, with 42,063 visitors between January and June. Canada and the United States also showed impressive growth, with 16 and 31% increases, respectively.
• The cruise sector has not been left behind in this tourism resurgence. Griffith revealed that cruise activity is projected to continue recovering from pandemic setbacks, aided by the return of summer cruise activity and an increase in cruise calls in the last quarter. From January to June 2024, Barbados welcomed 475,028 cruise passengers, compared to 434,565 for the same period in 2023.  “As you would recall, we had no cruise ship arrivals between June to September 2023. This year, we have had regular visits from the Rhapsody of the Seas every Friday,” he noted.
• Looking ahead, the island is set to benefit from a gradual increase in flights starting with the winter 2024-2025 flight schedules. British Airways and Virgin Atlantic will both double their London Heathrow to Barbados flights, while TUI will continue to service the destination with up to 99 flights a month from various UK cities.
• From the United States, JetBlue will triple its flights from Boston to Barbados, while American Airlines will resume daily flights from New York JFK. In an exciting development, Delta will return to Barbados after an eight-year hiatus, offering a daily service from Atlanta in winter.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Panama’s dual function as a regional finance hub and a critical chokepoint in global merchandise trade means the economy will continue to channel foreign currency transactions and financial flows that comfortably exceed the size of its overall output.
• While seemingly excessive by other Emerging Market standards, Panama’s external accounts reflect its central role in trade and finance in the Western Hemisphere and are unlikely to be destabilising in the foreseeable future. Key to this are stable financial institutions, transparent governance, a dollarized economy, and the geographic location of the Panama Canal.
• Following a sharp widening of the current account deficit in late 2023 due to an abrupt drop in Canal activity, Fitch Solutions expects the deficit to widen again to 4.8% of GDP in 2024, up from 4.5% in 2023, before narrowing to 3.4% in 2025.
• That said, Panama’s external position will remain vulnerable to climatic changes, as well as external cyclical downturns, de-globalisation, and the challenges posed by coordinated crackdowns on tax havens in the longer term.
• Nevertheless, Panama has proven highly resilient in the face of such challenges in previous years and its high capacity to borrow externally and attract large quantities of foreign direct inflows (FDI) means the economy is well placed to continue adapting to changing climatic conditions.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• U.S. consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August amid optimism over the economic outlook, but Americans are becoming more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.
• The better-than-expected reading in consumer confidence, reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday, reflected improved perceptions of business conditions over the next six months, and the survey suggested the odds of a recession had continued to decline. Consumers' uneasiness over the labour market is mirrored by concerns at the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday signaling.
• "This report supports a rate cut on both the decline in inflation expectations and a softening labor market but is not so weak as to suggest a recession at this point," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic adviser at Brean Capital. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 103.3 this month, the highest level since February, from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index would be little changed from the previously reported 100.3. Confidence was higher among consumers aged 35 years and older, and those with annual incomes above $100,000. The cutoff date for the survey was Aug. 21. The rise in confidence could have been influenced by President Joe Biden dropping out of the November presidential race and the nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris to head the Democratic Party ticket.
• Consumers were less upbeat, however, about the labor market. The share of consumers who viewed jobs as "plentiful" slipped to 32.8% from 33.4% in July. Some 16.4% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," up from 16.3% last month.
• The survey's so-called labour market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 16.4, the narrowest since March 2021, from 17.1 in July. This measure correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department's monthly employment report. The unemployment rate has risen for four straight months.

(Source: Reuters)

• British shop prices fell in annual terms this month for the first time since October 2021, pushed down by summer sales of clothes and household goods, a survey showed on Tuesday.
• The British Retail Consortium said shop prices fell by 0.3% in August compared with the same month in 2023, after a 0.2% increase in July. Prices of non-food goods dropped by 1.5%, the biggest fall in just over three years, while food prices increased by 2.0%, slowing from 2.3% in July and marking the smallest rise since November 2021.
• "Shop price inflation has fallen again in August as many non-food retailers have kept promotional support due to the unpredictable weather," said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at market research firm NielsenIQ, which compiles the data. "Food retailers have introduced more price cuts to help drive incremental sales during the 'summer of sport'," Watkins added, referring to the Paris Olympics and the men's Euro 2024 soccer tournament.
• The BRC survey covered prices in major store chains between Aug. 1 and Aug. 7. The latest official measure of annual consumer price inflation - which includes services as well as shop goods - rose for the first time this year during July to 2.2%, from 2.0% previously.
• The Bank of England expects CPI inflation to reach around 2.75% by the end of the year as the effect of sharp falls in energy prices in 2023 fades before returning to the BoE's target of 2% in the first half of 2026. The BoE cut interest rates from their 16-year high earlier this month, and investors expect at least one more quarter-point reduction before the end of the year.

(Source: Reuters)