• Venezuela's economy grew more than 5.0% in 2023 and growth is anticipated to reach 8.0% this year, President Nicolas Maduro said on Monday, January 15, during his annual address to the government-allied legislature.
• Venezuela's economy has suffered a prolonged meltdown marked by triple-digit inflation and a mass exodus of millions of migrants seeking better prospects elsewhere.
• Inflation reached just under 190.0% last year, according to the central bank, marking an easing from 234.0% the year before. That being said, Venezuela’s inflation rate is no longer Latin America's steepest since Argentina's sped past 200%.
• Furthermore, Maduro anticipates that inflation will be only 2 digits in 2024. That said, sanctions relief, which is set to last until April, has increased prices for Venezuelan crude, and analysts expect the income to lead to more social spending, likely pushing up inflation, as the government tries to ensure support in the presidential election, which is slated for this year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales for December surpassed forecasts, showing a 0.6% increase. This positive performance was primarily driven by higher sales in motor vehicles and the online retail sector, suggesting consumer spending remained robust as the year ended.
• The stronger-than-expected retail sales in December led economists to revise their estimates for economic growth in the fourth quarter. However, this optimistic outlook contradicts market expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, indicating a level of confidence in the overall economic health.
• The recent data, including strong employment and wage gains in December, as well as an uptick in consumer prices, collectively signal a healthy economy. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's characterisation of the economy as "doing well" reinforces the positive sentiment, providing the central bank with flexibility in its monetary policy approach.
• Retail sales in December saw a broad increase, with online retailers experiencing a notable 1.5% boost in sales. Additionally, motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a significant acceleration of 1.1% in sales. This reflects a continuing trend of consumers turning to online platforms and maintaining interest in purchasing vehicles.
• Despite signs of credit card delinquencies, households have managed to navigate high interest rates and resumed student loan payments. The data suggests that the economy, though experiencing a cooling of spending from the brisk pace of the third quarter, is still strong enough to stave off concerns of an imminent recession. With expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming year, most Economists express confidence in the economy's ability to avoid a downturn.

(Source: Reuters)

• China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 due to a record low birth rate and the aftermath of COVID-19, with a 0.15% decrease of 2.08 million people.
• The nationwide COVID-19 surge in 2022, following three years of strict measures, contributed to a 6.6% increase in total deaths and a 5.7% decrease in new births in 2023, resulting in a record-low birth rate.
• Economic challenges, including youth unemployment, falling wages, and a property sector crisis, compounded the decline in birth rates in 2023, negatively impacting China's demographic landscape.
• China faces concerns about economic growth due to demographic challenges, such as an ageing population and strained retirement benefits. Despite government measures to encourage childbirth, obstacles like high childcare costs and traditional expectations impede population growth, leading to scepticism among couples.

(Source: Reuters)

• Forty-three radio stations from key markets across the United States are currently on the island participating in a Sandals Resorts radio remote, reaching millions of listeners and giving Jamaica’s tourism a massive boost.
• The event, dubbed 'Broadcast Paradise', will take place from January 13 to 21 at the Sandals Dunn's River Resort, Mammee Bay, St. Ann. Representatives from Sandals, the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB), and other local stakeholders will be interviewed on everything tourism, and allowed to promote Jamaica to the island's biggest source market - the USA.
• Senior Strategist and Senior Adviser in the Ministry of Tourism, Delano Seiveright, in an interview with JIS News, highlighted that the broadcasts, which are scheduled to take place in some key connectivity areas, such as Miami, Denver, and Philadelphia, will amplify the island's tourism offerings.
• He further highlighted the high level of visibility that Jamaica will receive as millions tune in comes at a time when the country needs to continue the momentum, from 2023 as it relates to visitor arrivals.
• Seiveright said that with Jamaica’s proximity to the US, the country will benefit greatly from the exposure and will now have the opportunity to cement its claim as the number-one destination in the region.
• Following a strong year, where the country welcomed more than 4 million visitors, the Ministry of Tourism remains aggressive in the continued growth of the sector through several initiatives.

 (Source: JSE)

• German Ship Repair Jamaica (GSRJ) hopes to be in a position to use fewer overseas workers, with the partnership forged between the organization and the Caribbean Maritime University (CMU).
• According to a release from CMU, through the partnership, there will be an opening for disenfranchised students in Jamaica and youth from places with little to no possibilities to enroll in apprenticeship programs and get into a space driven by excellence.
• CEO of GSRJ Colonel Martin Rickman expressed optimism that the programme could also help train several at-risk youths.
• CMU President Professor Andrew Spencer said this represents the formalisation of an existing partnership between the two entities. Overall, this partnership is expected to provide employment opportunities for locals as well as training and development for individuals interested in that field.

 (Source:  RJR News)

• Having secured more than 50% of its external borrowing for the 2023/2024 fiscal year, Bahamas’ Ministry of Finance said the $500Mn Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) guarantee-backed loan it successfully closed last week will support some of the necessary infrastructure, education, and social welfare projects in the second half of the fiscal year, as well as provide a “solid anchor” for the government’s medium-term external funding plan.
• The $500Mn, 10-year commercial facility, arranged by US bank Banco Santander’s New York branch, is the first time the IDB will be covering initially up to 40% of scheduled principal and related interest under a first-loss, policy-based guarantee - a mechanism whereby a third party compensates lenders if the borrower default.
• According to the ministry, in a statement released, this allows for more favourable financing terms and lower interest rates than what is being offered right now on international bond markets.
• “As a result, The Bahamas secured significant savings compared to the market cost of funding at the time of transaction closing. This structure will advance the country’s objective of reducing debt service costs, extending maturities, and tapping new liquidity pools as outlined by the Medium-Term Debt Strategy and Annual Borrowing Plan for Fiscal Year 2023/24.”

(Sources: Nassau Guardian & Eyewitness News)

• As anticipated, the Banco Central de Reserva del Perù (BCRP - Central Bank of Peru) cut its policy interest rate from 6.75% to 6.50% on January 11.
• Headline inflation came down strongly once more to 3.2% y-o-y in December from 3.6% in November, with end-2023 data outpacing expectations.  Additionally, 12-month inflation expectations - which are closely tracked by the BCRP board - also eased from 3.2% in December to 2.8%, which is well within the target range and supports Fitch’s view for more cuts in Q1 2024.
• As inflation continues coming down strongly, another 25bps cut is expected in February.
• Fitch continues to expect that with real rates remaining very high and inflation expectations falling near the Banco Central de la Republica de Peru’s (BCRP) 3.0% target, the central bank will continue cutting through 2024, with the policy rate ending the year at 4.50%.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Eurozone consumers have slashed their inflation expectations, a European Central Bank survey showed on Tuesday, in comforting news for the ECB's efforts to contain prices.
• The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is used by policymakers to gauge whether households have faith in the ECB's ability to hit its 2% inflation goal, which may affect their wage demands and attitude towards saving and spending.
• The latest round of the poll carried out in November showed the median household expected prices to grow by 3.2% in the following 12 months, down from 4.0% a month earlier.
• Expectations for inflation three years ahead also came down to 2.2% from 2.5%. This is likely to mirror a sharp fall in inflation in November as well as a contraction in lending as a result of the ECB's steep increases in interest rates.

(Source: Reuters)

• The annual inflation rate in Canada for December met predictions, increasing to 3.4% from the previous month's 3.1%. This data indicated a persistent upward trend in prices.
• Key indicators of underlying inflation, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median, showed acceleration. The three-month annualised rate for these measures rose to 3.6%, up from the prior month's revised 2.9%. This suggested that inflationary pressures were not merely transient but had a more lasting impact.
• With the rise in inflation, hopes for an early shift in the central bank's stance towards rate cuts were disappointed. Royce Mendes of Desjardins Group expressed disappointment, emphasising the "stickiness" in core inflation measures, which suggested that conditions were not conducive to opening the door for rate cuts.
• The Bank of Canada (BoC) had previously raised its key policy rate to 5.0% between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat inflation. However, the latest data has altered market expectations. While the chance of rate cuts in March decreased after the release, there is still a significant expectation of a 25-basis-point reduction in April.
• The surge in headline inflation was attributed to higher gasoline prices, airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles, and rent. Notably, food purchases from stores rose by 4.7%. Andrew Kelvin of TD Securities highlighted that the acceleration in core inflation underscored the need for the BoC to exercise caution before considering any loosening of monetary policy.
• The Bank of Canada had initially forecasted inflation to reach its target by the end of 2025; however, Governor Tiff Macklem indicated a more optimistic outlook, expecting it to be closer to the target by the end of the current year.

(Source: Reuters)

• The average price paid for goods and services by Jamaican consumers rose in December, as reflected by a 0.5% increase in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI). The upward movements in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division (2.5%), as a result of higher prices for rent, electricity, water and sewage rates, was the main driver of the increase.
• Increases in the index for the classes ‘Ready-made food and other products n.e.c’ (4.2%) and ‘Fruit and nuts’ (1.8%) resulted in an increase of 0.3% in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division, which also contributed to higher inflation during the month.
• However, the overall inflation rate for December 2023 was tempered by a fall of 0.4% in the index for the ‘Transport’ division, given lower fuel prices.
• The point-to-point inflation rate (December 2022 – December 2023) was 6.9%. This was influenced mainly by the point-to-point inflation rate for the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (8.7%), ‘Transport’ (10.6%), and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation services’ (9.4%). For the fiscal year-to-date, the inflation rate was 7.3%, while the Calendar year–to-date in December 2023 was 7.5%.
• At its December 20, 2023 meeting, the BOJ kept the monetary policy at 7.00% as it continued to monitor the pass-through effects of previous adjustments on deposit and loan rates. The next policy decision will be on the 20^th of February, where it is expected that BOJ will maintain its policy rate at 7.00%.
• Despite the recent spikes in the inflation figure over the last two months, we expect that inflation will find a stable downward trend over the next few months as its key drivers, such as international commodity prices and shipping costs, continue to decline.

(Source: STATIN)