• Average prices in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) last month were 3.9% higher than in September 2022, according to the September Retail Price Index report of the Central Statistical Office (CSO).
• The Retail Price Index is a weighted average of the proportionate changes in the prices of a specified set or ‘basket’ of consumer goods and services between two periods of time. The RPI monitors the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services in 15 areas (locale) in T&T.
• The report indicated that the average prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages were 4.7% higher in September 2023 than in September 2022. Notably, the Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from 147.0 in August 2023 to 148.2 in September 2023, reflecting an increase of 0.8%, according to the CSO.
• Additionally, there was a general upward movement in the prices of Irish potatoes, chilled or frozen beef, fresh beef, chilled or frozen pork, cucumber, chive, soya bean oil, onions, mixed fresh seasoning and other chilled or frozen chicken. However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decreases in the prices of pumpkin, fresh whole chicken, table margarine, parboiled rice, white flour, oranges, tomatoes, grapes, eddoes and fresh steak.
• The CSO noted that a further review of the data for September 2023 compared with August 2023 reflected an increase in the sub-index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco of 0.3%. Notwithstanding, this period showed a decrease in the sub-index for clothing and footwear of 0.7% and health of 0.1%.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• The Resolution Foundation proposes a revision of the Bank of England's inflation target from the current 2% to 3%. This adjustment is seen as a strategic move to provide the central bank with more leeway during economic downturns and to alleviate pressure on public finances.
• A higher inflation target allows for the setting of higher nominal interest rates. This, in turn, grants the central bank the flexibility to reduce rates further during economic crises. By doing so, the Bank of England can deploy interest rate stimulus more effectively in challenging economic situations, potentially lessening the need for extensive government borrowing.
• The recommended adjustment in the inflation target is advised to be coordinated with other advanced economies. This coordination is essential to manage the potential adverse effects on the value of the British currency (sterling) that could arise from setting a higher inflation target compared to major economic regions like the United States and the eurozone.
• The report underscores the importance of adopting a more flexible monetary policy. Without such flexibility, the government's debt levels are projected to escalate significantly, possibly nearing 190% of national income within the next five decades. This increase in debt is attributed to various economic shocks and challenges that necessitate government borrowing. Addressing this issue is crucial for long-term economic sustainability and fiscal stability.

(Source: Reuters)

• Netflix has raised subscription prices for streaming plans in the United States, Britain, and France to increase revenue in a competitive market.
• Price increases include a $3 per month hike for the premium ad-free plan in the U.S. and $2 per month for the one-stream basic U.S. plan.
• Despite recent labour tensions in Hollywood and strikes affecting productions, Netflix continues to dominate viewer engagement, with its programming accounting for 8% of television screen time, second only to YouTube.
• The company aims to boost revenue as it faces market saturation and competition from major rivals, such as Disney and Warner Bros Discovery.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica is looking at implementing regulations for the short-stay accommodation market, which includes Airbnbs. Senior Strategist and Advisor in the Tourism Ministry Delano Seiveright says the direction being explored does not necessarily include tariffs.
• "We're being very considerate in how we approach it. The idea is not necessarily taxes. The idea is to ensure that it is safe, it is secure, and that it is properly marketed to ensure that destination Jamaica and brand Jamaica is protected at all costs," he explained.
• Seiveright argued that there are "persons in the space who we believe are doing nefarious things and we want to get on top of that".
• Several cities, including New York, have been clamping down on Airbnbs. The tourism strategist said Jamaica has been doing well compared with the rest of the region when it comes to Airbnb stays.
• "We met with Airbnb executives this year and last year who indicated to us that the growth in Jamaica is amongst the highest levels of growth in Airbnb stays in the entire Caribbean. And what we have is up to last year, we had 7,500 Airbnb stays in Jamaica. This year, we have already exceeded 10,000 Airbnb rooms/accommodations in all of Jamaica," he reported.
• Seiveright said about 29 per cent of tourists who visit Jamaica stay in an Airbnb or some other sort of short-term rental apartment, condo or villa.
• The regulation is a part of Jamaica’s efforts to protect brand Jamaica and ensure that all visitors are safe, and secure and have an excellent experience, whether they choose a hotel or other short-stay accommodations. 

(Source: RJR News)

• The Government is advancing its agenda for the long-term improvement of the country’s human capital with significant investment being made in education and training.
• Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Security, Hon. Dr. Horace Chang, noted that the move is in keeping with the Economic Reform Programme (ERP) that is geared towards achieving sustained economic growth and long-term development for Jamaica and all Jamaicans. He further highlighted that the facilitation of job creation and improving labour force productivity is critical to the process.
• Chang noted that the expanded mandate of the HEART/NSTA Trust with the removal of tuition and administrative fees for a significant number of programmes earlier this year, is critical in equipping Jamaicans will be skills and certification to gain employment and improve their lives.
• The appointment of Senator Dr. the Hon. Dana Morris Dixon as Minister without Portfolio in the Office of the Prime Minister, with responsibility for Skills and Digital Transformation, earlier this year, is indicative of the Government’s commitment to improving the cadre, capacity, and calibre of the Jamaican workforce, Dr. Chang added.
• He was addressing the private launch of the Courts Parkway Square (Portmore Pines) in St. Catherine on October 11. Dr. Chang commended Courts for opening its 29th store in Jamaica, noting that the latest investment is indicative of the company’s continued confidence in Jamaica and its people.

(Source: JIS News)

• Caribbean Community (Caricom) and United States trade officials have agreed to further strengthen their cooperation through the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as they seek to grow their economic relationship even further.
• According to a joint communique issued by the parties, the two sides reaffirmed the importance of the bilateral trade and economic relationship and highlighted that two-way trade and investment have recovered strongly since the pandemic.
• “The delegations agreed that engagement under the TIFA is an important opportunity to grow their economic relationship even further, including by expanding and diversifying exports and growing investments,” according to the statement.
• It said also that during the meeting the delegations highlighted the commitment of Caricom and the United States to working together to support durable and resilient supply chains in their shared region.
• Furthermore, the statement said the meeting also underscored the importance of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the trade preference initiative intended to facilitate the development of stable Caribbean Basin economies by providing beneficiary countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for most goods.
• Both sides agreed to jointly explore ways to increase utilization of the CBI programmes “and thereby expand regional trade, by exchanging data, analysis, and methodologies related to utilization of the programmes”.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Fitch Solutions has revised its 2023 forecast for Panamanian real GDP growth from 5.0% to 6.0%, which follows a 10.8% print in 2022. Fitch noted that it sees growth easing further to 3.0% in 2024.
• Growth will be underpinned by the government’s move to ramp up spending ahead of next year’s elections, helping to offset the drag from the drought that has impacted the Panama Canal and higher interest rates.
• Of note, Panama’s monthly activity indicator suggests that the economy has held up better than expected over H123, with growth seemingly having averaged around 9.0% y-o-y. However, Fitch expressed that no official GDP data for 2023 was available as of October 16.
• That being said, the monthly figures which are available are broadly consistent with comments from Minister of the Economy and Finance Héctor Alexander, who suggested in late September that the economy had grown by around 8.0% in the first half of the year.
• However, risks to Fitch’s forecasts are large and are related to data availability issues which make it very difficult to forecast with any real degree of accuracy.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes has dropped to the lowest level since January, largely due to the prevailing high mortgage rates and financing costs.
• Mortgage rates have reached a 23-year high, surpassing 7% for the 30-year fixed mortgage. This has significantly reduced affordability and affected buyer traffic, particularly younger buyers who are increasingly being priced out of the market.
• The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined by 4 points to 40 in October, marking the third consecutive monthly decline in builder confidence. The index components for current sales conditions, sales expectations, and buyer traffic have all shown notable drops.
• Builders are employing various incentives to attract buyers, including buying down mortgage interest rates. Additionally, some builders have reduced home prices to entice buyers. However, to address the housing affordability crisis, it is emphasized that adding affordable supply through increased housing production is crucial, but uncertainties in monetary policy are contributing to market challenges.

(Source: CNBC)

• Oil prices experienced a slight increase on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures settling up by 25 cents to $89.90 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) remained unchanged at $86.66 a barrel.
• Investors are closely monitoring U.S. diplomatic efforts and President Joe Biden's visit to Israel to gauge whether these actions will help prevent the Middle East conflict from escalating further. The uncertainty surrounding this situation has affected oil prices.
• Concerns were raised earlier in the session when Thomas Barkin, chief of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, noted that higher long-term U.S. borrowing costs could exert downward pressure on oil demand. Interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may slow economic growth and subsequently reduce the oil demand.
• Oil prices had previously surged due to fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict might escalate and potentially impact the oil-producing region. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude rallied last week, with Brent gaining 7.5%, marking its largest weekly gain since February. Biden's upcoming visit to Israel aims to strike a balance between showing support for Israel's actions against Hamas and rallying Arab states to prevent a broader regional conflict, particularly considering potential ramifications for oil markets.

(Source: Reuters)

• Knutsford Express Services Limited (KEX) recorded a net profit of $86.18Mn for the first quarter that ended August 30, 2023. This represents a 2.3% increase in profitability when compared to the $84.23Mn recorded over a similar period in 2022.
• Revenue for the quarter was up by 18.5% to $491.79Mn, from the $415.09Mn recorded over the same period of last year. This was driven by continued strong demand for its suite of services, including passenger service which was supported by increased arrivals documented at the airports. Similarly, there has been strong demand by members of the public, both individuals and businesses alike, for courier services.
• Administrative expenses for the quarter increased by 25.6% to $380.34Mn, which can be attributed to the expanded workforce which the company found necessary to meet customer demands. As a result of the increase in admin expenses which outpaced revenue growth, operating profit was down by 0.6% from $112.15Mn in 2022.
• KEX’s stock price has increased by 24.8% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Friday’s trading session at $11.09 and currently trades at a P/E of 18.1x which is above the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 16.0x.
• In the current financial year, KEX plans to bolster its fleet by deploying two (2) double-decker premium coaches into operation. Furthermore, another three (3) coaches will commence service by the end of Q3 of the current financial year to support growth and enhance customer experience.

(Source: JSE)