• Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett has renewed his call for the establishment of a global resilience fund to aid in boosting tourism.
• Mr Bartlett said the initiative would encourage tourists to take personal responsibility for bolstering the ability to respond, mitigate, adapt, and recover from the impacts of climate-related shocks.
• He was addressing the joint 5th Urban Economy Forum and 59th ISOCARP World Planning Congress which ended on Thursday.
• Bartlett said it is important for Small Island Developing States, including Jamaica, to receive international support in their efforts to build resilience and pursue sustainable development in the face of these extraordinary challenges.
• The proposed fund would offer support to tourist-dependent destinations by helping these countries to respond to their own crises and disasters. Each country would manage its own tourism resilience fund and employ the resources to enforce its tourism resilience, thus guaranteeing the sustainability of international travel and tourism.

(Source: RJR News)

• Tourism Minister David Collado affirmed last Thursday, October 12, 2023, that tourism maintains “unstoppable growth” by registering the arrival of 545,990 visitors last month, thus reaching the historic figure of 7,625,986 in the January-September period.
• “Those are historic numbers, which are felt in the economy, and the best of all is that this growth is unstoppable,” he said when presenting the statistics for September during an event held at the Ambassador Hall
• In September, by air alone, 478,794 tourists entered the country, representing 48% more than the same month in 2019, 31% more than in 2021, and 11% more than in 2022.
• Furthermore, sustainable growth was also reflected in the cruise industry. The minister further noted that the country received 67,196 cruise passengers in September, totalling 1,602,411.
• Projections for tourist arrivals at the end of the year are expected to exceed 7.9 million, which would be a new record. Minister David Collado reiterated that by the end of 2023, the Dominican Republic will surpass the goal of 10 million tourists.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Expected economic activity prints in Latin American (LATAM) countries give a better picture of regional growth as well as the timing and pace of interest rate cuts. 
• For Colombia, high-frequency data (industrial production and real retail sales growth remained in negative territory) suggesting that the economy would have likely weakened significantly in August – possibly falling into contraction. This supports Fitch’s view that the central bank is likely to start its rate-cutting cycle in its next meeting at the end of October.
• Peru is likely to see continued weakness in H223 due to the effects of El Nino on fishing and agricultural output as well as weak external demand for copper, their main commodity export. Given this, Fitch also expects that Peru’s central bank will continue with its rate-cutting cycle.
• For Mexico, industrial activity remained strong in August, with output rising by 0.3% m-o-m relative to the 0.5% expansion seen in July. This was enough to push the y-o-y rate up to a nine-month high of 5.2%. In line with Fitch’s expectations, growth was driven by strength in the construction sector, while activity in the manufacturing sector eased somewhat. Given this, Fitch maintains the view that cuts will not materialise until mid-2024, largely owing to the resilience of the Mexican economy which will cause price growth to remain sticky.
• Finally, while Brazil has continued to beat expectations, the effect of high credit costs is likely to weaken this resilience. That said Fitch maintains its view that the bank will continue with its cautious rate-cutting cycle through 2023 into 2024.
• Overall, economic activity is expected to vary across LATAM countries which could have the effect of varying interest rate projections for 2023 and 2024.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The global financial landscape faces several pressing concerns, including escalating debts, soaring interest rates, climate change costs, health and pension expenditures tied to ageing populations, and divisive political climates. Developed economies are particularly at risk, with over 80% of the $10 trillion increase in global debt concentrated in these regions, reaching a record $307 trillion. Notably, the United States, Italy, and Britain are raising significant worries.
• Investors are increasingly cautious due to heightened government borrowing costs, prompting a reevaluation of long-term bond investments. Experts stress the need for governments to establish credible fiscal plans, increase taxes, and stimulate growth to manage their finances effectively. Geopolitical tensions and a fragile economic environment, combined with shrinking central bank support and higher interest rates, amplify the risk of a policy misstep triggering a market downturn.
• Former chief economist at the European Central Bank, Peter Praet, underscores the vulnerability of public finances in many countries, emphasising the potential for a public finances crisis without corrective actions. The trajectory of government debt poses a substantial threat to both macroeconomic and financial stability, as observed in the United States' declining credit rating due to budget disputes.
• Italy's considerable debt, totalling 2.4 trillion euros, is a focal point in Europe, heightening concerns about vulnerability to crisis. The risk of losing investment-grade ratings and its potential impact on southern Europe looms large. Additionally, stagnant growth across Europe and Britain raises doubts about debt sustainability, particularly if a brighter growth outlook is not achieved.
• Various countries, including the United States, Britain, and Italy, grapple with burgeoning interest payments as rates rise, adding to fiscal pressures. Projections indicate a significant increase in interest costs as a percentage of GDP in the coming decades, underscoring the urgency of addressing these financial challenges.

(Source: Reuters)

• Israel is gearing up for a potentially prolonged conflict with significant humanitarian implications. Hamas militants initiated a surprise terrorist attack, prompting the Israeli defence forces to call up over 300,000 reservists, an unprecedented move in recent history.
• Israel's standing army, air force, and navy consist of 150,000 members, while the reserve force comprises about 450,000 members, bringing diverse skills and experience to the military. Reservists come from various sectors, including education, technology, entrepreneurship, agriculture, law, healthcare, tourism, and manufacturing.
• The economic impact will hinge on how long reservists are away from their civilian jobs in a country with a population of over 9 million and a GDP of $521.69 billion. Immediate effects include a drop in tourism, but a potential surge once the conflict subsides due to pent-up demand.
• Certain employment sectors, heavily staffed with foreign workers, are expected to continue operations during the war, minimizing disruption. This includes the chemical sector, a major source of Israel's exports, and the Potash industry in the Dead Sea region, easing concerns about potash supply.
• The main Israeli stock index has seen a 6% decline this week, reflecting market concerns related to the ongoing conflict. No new warnings from rating agencies regarding Israel's debt have emerged, though prior concerns existed due to political instability and proposed judicial reforms.
• Despite the challenging situation, there is optimism that Israel will ultimately achieve a military victory, potentially leading to an improved country and economy. The prolonged instability in the Gaza region may find a resolution through this conflict, bolstering confidence in the long-term stability of the area.

(Source: CNBC)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth outlook for Jamaica. In its latest economic outlook released Tuesday morning, the IMF predicted that the local economy is set to grow by 2% by the end of 2023 down from 2.2% previously.
• The IMF also projected slower growth for 2024 at 1.8%, a 0.2% downward revision.
• The forecast for 2028 remains at 1.6%. The IMF's forecast comes days after the World Bank upgraded its outlook for Jamaica, with expected growth for this year at 2.3%. 
• Meanwhile, for the Latin America and Caribbean Region, the IMF upgraded its GDP outlook to 2.3% growth which is higher than the projection for the year made in April of 1.6%.
• The IMF says the region's GDP will also grow by 2.3% next year, reflecting a 0.1% improvement in the outlook.
• The deceleration comes at a time when the world has yet to fully mend from a devastating but short-lived COVID-19 recession in 2020 and now could see fallout from the Middle East conflict — particularly to oil prices.

(Source: IMF)

• Executive Director of the Tourism Enhancement Fund (TEF), Dr. Carey Wallace has underscored the importance of developing Jamaica’s tourism industry as a means of creating wealth, providing jobs, and improving the quality of life for Jamaicans.
• Drawing parallels to Guyana’s newfound oil wealth, which he said has boosted the country’s economy and quality of life for its citizens, Dr Wallace emphasised that Jamaica’s true riches lie in its natural beauty and the warmth of its people.
• He highlighted similar to how Guyana has found oil that can give its people a good quality of life, Tourism can provide benefits to Jamaica.
• With its pristine white sand beaches, enchanting cascading waterfalls, and delectable gastronomy, Jamaica boasts a wealth of natural assets that have long captivated the hearts of tourists from around the world. These assets are not only vital for the nation’s economic prosperity but also a source of immense national pride.

(Source: JIS News)

• “Тhе rеgіоn’ѕ 25% bу 2025 аgеndа, оr mоrе ѕіmрlу put, thе rеgіоn’ѕ рlаn tо dесrеаѕе thе fооd іmроrt bіll bу 25% bу thе уеаr 2025 іѕ а рlаn іn асtіоn,” Веlіzеаn Міlаgrо Маtuѕ, САRІСОМ’ѕ Dерutу Рrоgrаmme Маnаgеr fоr Аgrісulturаl & Аgrо-Іnduѕtrіаl Dеvеlорmеnt, ѕаіd іn thе 17th Саrіbbеаn Wееk оf Аgrісulturе mеѕѕаgе. Маtuѕ wаѕ thе Веlіzе Міnіѕtrу оf Аgrісulturе, Fооd ѕесurіtу, аnd Еntеrрrіѕе’ѕ Роlісу Аnаlуѕt bеfоrе tаkіng оn thе САRІСОМ роѕt.
• Маtuѕ ѕаіd thе роlіtісаl wіll іs ѕtrоng аѕ thе Саrіbbеаn Соmmunіtу’ѕ (САRІСОМ) mеmbеr ѕtаtеѕ аrе “іmрlеmеntіng роlісіеѕ аnd рrоgrаmmeѕ gеаrеd tоwаrdѕ сrеаtіng аn еnаblіng еnvіrоnmеnt whеrе рrоduсеrѕ frоm thе mісrо tо thе lаrgе саn bесоmе mоrе ѕuѕtаіnаblе, rеѕіlіеnt, іnnоvаtіvе, аnd соmреtіtіvе whіlе ѕесurіng thе аvаіlаbіlіtу аnd ассеѕѕіbіlіtу оf hеаlthу, nutrіtіоuѕ fооdѕ fоr аll”.
• Furthermore, the President of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, at a separate press conference at the Headquarters of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), in Costa Rica, said that his country and its fellow Caribbean nations are making steady progress towards achieving their proposed objective to reduce their multi-million-dollar food import bill by 25% by 2025.
• ‘This task will require effort, commitment, policy coordination and access to capital to topple the barriers that are impeding access to new technologies and to allow us to achieve resilient and sustainable food production. We are making continuous progress in that direction”, said Ali.
• Ali also stressed the role of IICA’s technical cooperation in building food security in Guyana and other Caribbean nations, remarking that, “IICA assists with technical resources, significant financial contributions and science and technology to assist agriculture in the region and create resilience and sustainability.”
• Thus, he said that the Agency for Agricultural and Rural Development of the Inter-American System has an important responsibility to be the bridge that assists the region to close existing gaps between countries in terms of access to technologies for agriculture, resources and human capacities.

(Source: Caricom Today & Breaking Belize News)

• Mexico on Wednesday, October 13, 2023, issued a decree to grant tax breaks for companies that relocate operations to Mexico, targeting major export industries such as car-making and semiconductors, a move that won cautious praise from economists.
• The incentives are designed to attract companies that want to shift their offshore operations closer to their customers, called nearshoring, in the wake of supply chain disruptions in Asia during the COVID pandemic.
• Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio said in a post on X the incentives would apply to 10 sectors of the economy, including the manufacture of batteries, engines, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, medical instruments and agribusiness.
• Though welcomed, the measures failed to dispel concerns the government is obstructing investment by failing to provide essential infrastructure for companies, especially because of its nationalist energy policies favouring fossil fuels.
• Overall, Mexico could lure annual foreign direct investment flows of between $55Bn to $60Bn if it takes better advantage of nearshoring, up from $36Bn in 2022 according to economists. The new incentives include accelerated investment deductions of 89%-56% in 2023 and 2024; and additional deductions of 25% during three years for worker training, Yorio said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting highlighted the central bank's close monitoring of the data, making that day's consumer prices report even more important.
• Participants stressed the need to see more data indicating a decrease in inflation pressures during the September confab of the Federal Open Market Committee - the Fed's rate-setting body. The Bureau of Labour Statistics consumer prices report was expected to show abating inflation pressures in September, if only marginally.
• Headline CPI was seen rising by 0.3% on the month, down from 0.6% in August, which would have taken the annual rate to 3.6%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, was expected to have also risen by 0.3% in September. On an annual basis, that would have left core CPI at 4.1%, its lowest level in two years. This would have been welcome news for the U.S. central bank, but the path to lower inflation and a return to the 2% target looked trickier from there.
• The threat of higher energy prices following the outbreak of a war between Israel and Palestinian militants was all too real, even if the immediate market reaction was relatively muted. Oil rose by as much as 4% at one point on Monday but returned to levels it was at before Hamas militants crossed the Israeli border on Saturday. Natural gas prices in Europe and the U.S. were both holding near multi-month highs, as there was already evidence that supply could be affected after the Israeli energy ministry instructed Chevron to shut down production at its Tamar facility.
• Policymakers around the globe were likely to signal they would look through any short-term boost to inflation if the conflict were to escalate, but the path back to 2% could still take longer than previously thought.
• At that time, equities in Europe were broadly higher, futures in the U.S. were pointing to a positive open, while the dollar was flat after a six-day streak of daily losses.

(Source: Reuters)