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The Caribbean: Caught In A Perfect Economic Storm Published: 23 March 2022

  • The Prime Ministers of Belize and Barbados, both stressed the importance of a unified response to the multiplicity of global economic challenges facing the region. The emphasis now, they suggested, must be on actions that result in self-reliance and resilience.
  • CARICOM heads agreed that the region urgently needed to implement measures intended to create self-sufficiency in food production and energy, deliver an effective and viable CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME), and more aggressively seek out the funding required to drive regional economic recovery. 
  • To coordinate this, a resuscitated and enlarged CARICOM Economic Recovery Committee is to meet to recommend how these and other overlapping strategic issues, including post-pandemic recovery, long-term indebtedness, the shameful absence of international resources to support climate change adaptation, and measures to offset the alarming global economic disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 
  • Whether member states can rapidly achieve even a part of what is required is unclear, but as Prime Minister Mottley pointed out, without a unified response, the region's development trajectory will be derailed.

 (Source: MENAFN- Caribbean News Global)

Fed policymakers lean into bigger rate hikes to fight inflation Published: 23 March 2022

  • Federal Reserve officials are doing little to downplay rising market expectations the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by half a percentage point in May to curb the surge in inflation, but they also are not dispelling fears the tightening cycle could blow a hole in the economy and labour market. 
  • Louis Fed President James Bullard told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that the Fed needs to move aggressively to keep inflation under control, repeating his call for the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate above 3% this year. 
  • Bullard, who dissented on the Fed's decision last week to raise the federal funds rate by just a quarter of a percentage point from the near-zero level, has made this same point before. But his view appears to be gaining traction. 
  • On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank must move expeditiously to raise rates and said that nothing would prevent the central bank from raising rates by half a percentage point at the May 3-4 policy meeting. 
  • Those comments prompted a flood of bets in futures markets on half-point interest rate increases in May and June. Traders now see the federal funds rate rising to the 2.25%-2.50% range by the end of the year - short of Bullard's view but higher than the 1.9% suggested by Fed forecasts last week. 
  • Powell said the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs without damaging the labour market and argued the best thing the Fed could do to ensure continued labour market strength is to get inflation under control.

(Source: Reuters)

Traders warn of Russia-related diesel and gas shortages Published: 23 March 2022

  • Energy and commodity markets are in shock after Russia invaded Ukraine, the world's top trading firms said on Tuesday, warning of gas and diesel shortages in Europe and economic recession if Russian flows fall further. 
  • Prices across gas, oil, metals and agricultural markets have soared since the invasion and become so volatile that companies have had to cut traded volumes owing to strained liquidity. The chief executives of four of the biggest energy traders - Vitol, Gunvor, Mercuria and Trafigura - said the gas market, in particular, had become dysfunctional owing to unmanageable margin calls. 
  • Vitol CEO Russell Hardy told the FT Commodities Global Summit that the longer the war goes on, the greater the chance of an economic recession. Russia calls the biggest invasion in Europe since World War Two a "special military operation" to disarm Ukraine and protect it from "Nazis". The West says this is a false pretext for an unprovoked war against a democratic country. 
  • Energy markets had little spare capacity even before Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24. They will now struggle to absorb the potential loss of about 2.0Mn barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Russia, which competes with Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oil exporters.

(Source: Reuters)

MEEG’s Q1 Earnings Adversely Affected By Omicron Variant Published: 22 March 2022

  • Main Events Entertainment Group reported a net loss of $40.64Mn for its first three months ending January 31, 2022, as higher costs outpaced revenue growth. The emergence of the Omicron variant, which resulted in the re-imposition of restrictive measures brought an immediate and sharp decline in demand for its services and this curtailed topline growth. 
  • The company realised a 14.7% year over year increase in revenues during the quarter. However, stronger growth was expected before the emergence of the Omicron variant. Management highlighted that it began the year with strong client interest for its core services. However, with the emergence of the Omicron variant by mid-December, it faced multiple requests to scale back or defer holiday season projects. 
  • In some instances, planning and preparatory work had already begun, and certain costs had already been incurred. As such, these costs turned into sunk costs, which contributed to elevated direct and indirect costs of $57.61Mn (88.5%) and $20.63Mn (32.0%), respectively.
  • The company's prospects for the remainder of its financial year have improved significantly primarily due to the full withdrawal of the COVID-19 restrictions on the entertainment industry. MEEG is expected to see increased demand for its services supported by pent-up demand from the general public for entertainment services, which should positively impact its financial performance. 
  • MEEG’s stock price has increased by 107.7% since the start of the calendar year and closed Monday’s trading session at $9.35.

(Source: Company Financials)

Eccles To Be Transformed With US$25M Wharf–Project Creates Opportunity For Over 50 Direct Jobs Published: 22 March 2022

  • The physical landscape of Eccles, East Bank Demerara, is set to be transformed with the construction of a US$25 million wharf facility to service Guyana’s fast-growing oil-and-gas sector. 
  • Once completed, the wharf is expected to accommodate a total of three vessels measuring 75 meters. The project will create direct jobs for over 50 persons during and after the construction phase. 
  • The timely development of such projects and simultaneous exploration success offshore will enable the steady advancement of human resource capabilities and enhanced economic growth. Additionally, outside of investments within the oil-and-gas sector, there have also been immense direct benefits as a result of the country’s oil resources. 
  • The current oil boom is expected to catapult Guyana to the ranks of the wealthiest countries in the Western Hemisphere over the next two decades, which will increase the government’s fiscal space to invest in initiatives to expand the economy and improve the overall welfare of citizens.

 (Source: Guyana Chronicle)

Let's Wait and See Impact on Government Revenue Published: 22 March 2022

  • Trinidad & Tobago Energy Minister Stuart Young has indicated that higher global ammonia prices, owing to supply issues created by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, should result in more revenue for the Government in the current fiscal year. 
  • The global market for fertilisers has been in turmoil recently as a result of higher global prices for natural gas, which is used to make ammonia. The war in Eastern Europe has pushed fertiliser prices even higher as Russia is a major exporter of potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based fertilisers. 
  • According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, Russia accounts for 15% of global trade in nitrogenous fertilisers, 17% of global potash fertiliser exports, and 20% of the global natural gas trade, a key component in manufacturing fertilisers. Notably, earlier this month, the country announced that it would temporarily halt exports of fertilisers. 
  • T&T has ten operational ammonia plants, including two ammonia complexes on the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, with a total annual nominal capacity of about five million metric tonnes. Most of the ammonia produced at the Point Lisas Industrial Estate is exported, therefore the country should see an increase in revenue from petrochemicals. However, given the dynamics playing out in global markets, the ministry will have to employ a wait-and-see approach for revenue collection in 2022.

 (Source: Trinidad Express Newspapers)

Crude Settles Up More Than 7% As EU Mulls Russian Oil Ban Published: 22 March 2022

  • Oil prices settled up more than 7% on Monday, with global benchmark Brent climbing above $115 a barrel, as European Union nations disagreed on whether to join the United States in a Russian oil embargo after an attack on Saudi oil facilities. 
  • Brent futures settled at $115.62 per barrel, up $7.69 or 7.12%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $112.12 per barrel, up $7.42 or 7.09%. 
  • John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, has said that such an embargo could be the precipice for global trouble supply-wise. Given the uncertainty about the EU's potential ban of Russian petroleum imports, U.S. gasoline futures jumped 5%. 
  • European Union governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine as they gather this week with U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits designed to harden the West's response to Moscow.

(Source: Reuters)

U.S., British Officials Kick Off Talks to Strengthen Trade Ties Published: 22 March 2022

  • U.S. and British officials kicked off two days of meetings on Monday to strengthen trade ties, underscoring the importance of transatlantic cooperation at a time when Western allies are ratcheting up pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine and China for failing to condemn it. 
  • The talks in Baltimore mark a broad effort to take stock of the $260.0Bn bilateral trade relationship, while specific irritants will be set aside and dealt with separately. 
  • U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the two allies had resolved disputes over aircraft subsidies and digital services tax and were now working together closely to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. 
  • Tai told a plenary attended by dozens of U.S. and British executives and trade officials that in the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment and the world is clearly choosing the side of peace and security, so it's never been more important for them to work to strengthen their economic ties with their closest allies, like the United Kingdom. 
  • Tai said U.S. and British officials would work to identify mutual trade priorities and chart a path to promote innovation and inclusive economic growth for citizens on both sides of the Atlantic.

(Source: Reuters)

Higher Costs & Lower Finance Income Dampen LAB’s Q1 Performance Published: 18 March 2022

  • The LAB reported a net profit of $66.22Mn for its first quarter ending January 31, 2022, which represents a 1.2% or $0.8Mn decrease relative to the prior period, despite it recording double-digit revenue growth of 24.5% or $87.22Mn. 
  • The revenue growth was attributable to increases in the company’s core business, media placement (up $93.20Mn or 62.2%) and advertising agency (up $3.60Mn or 6.4%). Production was down $9.60Mn or 6.4%. 
  • This led to its gross profit increasing by $27.60Mn or 24.0% year over year. However, its gross profit margin was relatively unchanged at 32.2%. 
  • In spite of the increase in revenues and gross profit, there was a drop in net profit largely owing to a rise in indirect costs and fall in finance income. Administrative, Selling and Distribution expenses increased by 41.8% or $22.23Mn due to higher staff costs, repairs and maintenance of production equipment and depreciation and amortization costs. Further, the company experienced a reduction in its finance income of $6.10Mn and reported a loss of $1.30Mn from its subsidiary, Scope Caribbean. 
  • The company is expected to see stronger demand for its digital advertising services as the economy fully reopens, which should support growth in its profitability, if complemented with effective cost containment measures. 
  • LAB’s stock price has decreased by 12.2% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Thursday’s trading session at $3.37 and currently trades at a P/E of 21.1x which is below the Junior Market Others average of 22.3x.

(Source: Company Financials)

Wheat Cost On the International Market Can Impact Local Wheat Products Published: 18 March 2022

  • Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance, Mike Sylvester, warns that the citizens of Grenada should be mindful of the impact the ongoing war in Ukraine can have on their livelihood and living conditions as the prices of basic food items have risen sharply in recent days. 
  • The country has seen where the price of a bushel of wheat has increased from US$800 to US$1,200 in March. Like fuel, Sylvester said these prices will reach the island, as they are price takers, and have no influence on how these prices are determined. 
  • While the country’s wheat is imported from the US market, due to the shortage created by the Russia-Ukraine war, some of the distributors and suppliers are tapping into the South American market. 
  • Notably, while price increases for commodities began following the global lockdown during the early days of COVID-19 due to a major shortage of supplies on the market, this current crisis will only worsen the current economic conditions and further impede growth in Grenada if the conflict is prolonged.

(Source: NOW Grenada)