• Guyana is eyeing the development of a viable hemp industry through the efficient utilisation of the value-added aspects of the plant. 
• President Irfaan Ali revealed that his government would be moving in this direction as processing and value-added facilities would generate employment and a high-value return. 
• Consequently, the President intends to meet marijuana farmers on the possibility of them capitalising on the hemp industry and legally earning money. He believes the hemp industry will be a net gain for the county and can also help in at-risk communities. 
• Moreover, the Global Industrial Hemp Markets Report 2021-2028, published by GlobeNewswire last November, states that the global industrial hemp market size is expected to reach US$12.01Bn by 2028 and to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% from 2021 to 2028.

(Source: Our Today)

• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week as demand for labour remained strong, positioning the economy for another month of solid job gains. Unemployment benefit rolls were the smallest in 52 years in early March, the Labour Department's weekly jobless claims report on Thursday also showed. 
• Signs of the economy's underlying strength against the backdrop of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions were also evident in other reports showing an acceleration in manufacturing production last month and a sharp rebound in homebuilding. 
• The three-week-old Russia-Ukraine war poses a risk to the U.S. labour market through disruptions of supply chains and record-high gasoline prices. However, with companies hungry for labour, economists are optimistic the labour market and economy will ride out the storm. 
• Factories in the region encompassing eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware hired more workers and increased hours for employees. They, however, continued to struggle with higher input prices and delays getting materials, which kept order backlogs long.

(Source: Reuters)

• Ukraine and Russia are taking peace talks seriously but a very big gap remains between the two sides, Western officials said on Thursday, adding Russian President Vladimir Putin did not seem in the mood to compromise. 
• Although both sides have pointed to limited progress in peace talks this week, Putin showed little sign of relenting during a televised speech in which he inveighed against "traitors and scum" at home who helped the West, and said the Russian people would spit them out like gnats. 
• Both sides are taking the talks seriously but there is a very, very big gap between the positions in question, one Western official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. 
• A Ukrainian negotiator has said that a "model" of legally binding security guarantees that would offer Ukraine protection from a group of allies in the event of a future attack is "on the negotiating table" at talks between Kyiv and Moscow.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite a 5.0% decline in revenues, Indies Pharma reported net earnings of $50.22Mn for its three months ending January 31, 2022, a 5.7% or $2.70Mn increase relative to the prior period. 
• A 34.4% reduction in direct cost, which led to a 13.1% increase in Indies’ gross profit, was the main contributor to the growth in its bottom line.  Furthermore, though the company had increased administrative expenses, profit from operations remained relatively flat at J$64.70Mn in 2021/22 versus J$63.44Mn in the corresponding period of 2020/21. 
• The Company aims to maintain its performance by executing its strategy to strengthen its intellectual property (new drug approvals for the US market) and tangible assets (prime real estate). In 2020 Indies successfully raised growth capital of $805Mn from the market through a bond issue. 50% of the bond proceeds allowed the company to acquire 3 acres of prime real estate in Ironshore, Montego Bay which has and is expected to continue to deliver capital gains that will support the company's performance. 
• Furthermore, the company has two new drugs going through the approval process in the US to commercialise on the US market by 2023, which is also expected to support the company’s financial performance going forward. 
• Indies’ stock price has decreased by 7.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Wednesday's trading session at $3.06 and currently trades at a P/E of 24.0x earnings which is above the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 22.8x

(Source: Company Financials)

• Emergence from bankruptcy has been a long time coming for Puerto Rico, which has been in a bankruptcy-like process known as Title III since May 2017. On Tuesday, Puerto Rico’s government formally exited bankruptcy, completing the largest public debt restructuring in U.S. history, after announcing nearly seven years ago that it was unable to pay its more than $70Bn debt. 
• In January, the country was approved for a $135Bn debt adjustment plan. The financial transactions outlined in that plan included approximately $10Bn in settlements with creditors. That amount includes $7.2Bn for general obligation bondholders, $1.4Bn for public employees' retirement accounts, and $200Mn for general unsecured creditors, according to the board. 
• The adjustment plan reduces $33Bn in bond debt to $7Bn and cuts overall debt by around 75%. The plan also reduces the commonwealth’s annual debt service to around $1.5Bn from $3.9Bn previously. Notably, the adjustment plan also includes protections that limit how much debt Puerto Rico can undertake on in the future. 
• For Puerto Rico, remaining in bankruptcy has retarded the economy in multiple ways, as such, the country’s exit is a significant success. Nevertheless, the island is still trying to recover from the hurricane, a series of powerful earthquakes that struck its southern region starting in late 2019 and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic which has been a major setback. 
• Consequently, while many celebrated Puerto Rico’s exit from bankruptcy, it is unlikely the island will be able to access financial markets soon because it has yet to get its audited financial statements up to date.

(Source: Reuters & Daily Independent)

• While the price of oil is usually volatile, the increase in returns recorded by Guyana was fuelled by high world market prices amidst the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Returns from the most recent sale of Guyana’s oil have exceeded US$96Mn, the highest on record since the country started producing and exporting this commodity. Last December Guyana had recorded returns of US$73Mn, which is approximately US$23Mn less than its most recent earnings in February. 
• Of note, according to figures from the Central Bank, Guyana earned G$20,000,929,000 (approximately US$96Mn); this pushed the country’s overall direct returns from the oil-and-gas sector to US$719.71Mn. 
• Although various reports show that world market prices for this commodity have started to decline, Brent, the benchmark used by Guyana to sell its oil, remains above US$100 per barrel. Should this remain the same, or be marginally adjusted, the country could earn over US$100Mn from the sale of its next one million barrels of oil. 
• Guyana is now poised to be one of the wealthiest countries in the hemisphere given the revenue that is generated from the local oil-and-gas sector. The government intends to use the gains from exploiting these deposits into initiatives geared at expanding the economy, improving competitiveness, giving people the best social services, increasing productivity, enhancing food production, and building new sectors. 
• The increased revenues generated by the oil and gas sector will thereby increase the government’s fiscal space to invest in initiatives geared at expanding the economy and improving the overall welfare of citizens.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and laid out an aggressive plan to push borrowing costs to restrictive levels by next year as concerns about high inflation and the war in Ukraine overtook the risks of the coronavirus pandemic. 
• The U.S. central bank, in a surprise move, projected the equivalent of quarter-percentage-point rate increases at each of its six remaining policy meetings this year, which would push the target federal funds rate to a range between 1.75% to 2.00% by the end of 2022. By the end of next year, the policy rate is projected to be 2.80%, above the 2.40% level officials now feel would slow the economy.
• A slowdown, however, may already be underway. Fed policymakers marked down their economic growth estimate for 2022 to 2.8%, from the 4.0% projected in December, as they began to discount the new risks facing the global economy. 
• The Fed noted that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term, the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity. 
• The interest rate path shown in new projections by policymakers is tougher than expected, reflecting Fed concern about inflation that has moved faster and threatened to become more persistent than expected, and put at risk the central bank's hope for an easy shift out of the emergency policies put in place to fight the fallout from the pandemic. 
• Even with the tougher rate increases now projected, the Fed expects inflation to stay above its 2% target, remaining at 4.1% through this year and dropping only to 2.3% through 2024. The unemployment rate is seen dropping to 3.5% this year and remaining there next year but is projected to rise slightly to 3.6% in 2024.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil lost ground for the fifth time in the last six days on Wednesday as traders reacted to hoped-for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a surprising increase in U.S. inventories. The oil market has been on a roller-coaster for more than two weeks, and both major benchmarks have traded in their largest high-to-low range over the last 30 days than at any time since the middle of 2020. 
• Wednesday was no different, as global benchmark Brent traded in a $6 range, between $97.55 and $103.70 before settling at $98.02, down $1.89 a barrel, or 1.9%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended down $1.40, or 1.5%, at $95.04 a barrel. 
• Last week's frenzied rally pushed Brent briefly past $139 a barrel on worries about extended disruption to Russian supply. Brent is now more than $40 below that point, and some analysts have warned that this reflects too much optimism that the war will end soon. 
• The United States and other nations have slapped heavy sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine more than two weeks ago. This disrupted Russia's oil trade of more than 4 to 5 million barrels of crude daily. 
• Should the war continue, more supply will be disrupted, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday. Three million barrels per day of Russian oil and products may not find their way to market beginning in April, the IEA said, as sanctions bite and buyers hold off. The IEA also said demand will fall, but not by as much as the potential drop in Russian supplies.

(Source: Reuters)

• For February, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% up from 0.6% in January and in line with the 0.8% outturn in December 2021. February’s outturn meant that point-to-point inflation was 10.7% in the 12 months to February 2022, up from the 9.7% reported in January 2022. February’s outturn puts inflation firmly outside the BOJ’s target range of 4% to 6%, for the 7^th consecutive month. 
• A 1.3% increase in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division was the main driver of the rise in consumer prices. The prices for Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals increased due to the rise in the prices for chicken products. Also contributing to the upward movement in the division was the 1.0% increase in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’, as prices increased for some vegetables.  
• The elevated inflation rate will continue to be driven by the transmission of higher international commodity and shipping prices to domestic processed food, food-related services and energy and fuel prices, as well as a recovery in domestic demand. The geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine in March have adversely affected oil, gas, and grain prices, which poses a risk to both global and domestic growth and will likely fuel further price increases in March. Moreover, a renewed spike in COVID-19 cases in China is likely to further exacerbate supply chain woes.  
• The BOJ has already increased its policy rate to 4.00% and may increase it further at its next policy decision meeting scheduled for March 29^th. Apart from the higher inflation rates, this decision is likely to also be driven by the higher inflation expectations. Inflation expectations for 12 months ahead rose to 9.1% in the December Survey from 8.9% in the prior survey.

(Source: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• The Chilean budget deficit is expected to narrow to 4.1% in 2022, from 10.0% in 2021, as the government pares back pandemic-era stimulus payments. 
• The government had enacted a stimulus package equivalent to 14.1% of GDP at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, as case numbers decline it will reduce these measures in 2022. That being said, the pace of consolidation will be tempered by weaker economic growth which will weigh on revenues. 
• Moreover, while the fiscal deficit will continue to shrink in 2023 and 2024, Fitch expects that it will remain wider compared to the historical pre-crisis average as President-elect Gabriel Boric enacts an expansive spending plan in accordance with his campaign promises of mitigating inequality and promoting social transformation.  
• While the 2022 budget includes substantial spending cutbacks, expenditures will remain above the country’s historic trend as public investment and health spending increase. That said, revenue receipts will grow by just 1.3% in 2022, after surging 24.3% in 2021, as economic growth slows, dampening the pace of fiscal narrowing.  
• Fitch forecasts that GDP growth in Chile will slow to 2.2% in 2022, as withdrawn stimulus dampens goods consumption in the quarters ahead. While higher production levels in the mining sector will generate stronger revenue inflows from that channel over the coming quarters, (grew 246.2% y-o-y in the year through August 2021), the economy's overall deceleration is expected to negatively impact income and value-added taxes, which accounted for 38.7% of total revenue receipts in 2019.

 (Fitch Solutions)