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Cruise Ships Return to Falmouth November 8 Published: 27 October 2021

  • Cruise ships are set to return to Falmouth on November 8, following an 18-month absence due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Italian liner, Costa, a subsidiary of Carnival Corporation, will be making a much-anticipated call to the Trelawny capital. 
  • Mayor Colin Gager, has said that the visit by the vessel is welcomed news for local officials, businesses, and residents. He indicated that plans are in place to welcome the Italian cruise liner as “some on the ground preparation” had started in Falmouth, including improving the the basic infrastructure, after the resumption of cruise shipping in Ocho Rios over two months ago. 
  • Chief Strategist/Adviser in the Ministry of Tourism, Delano Seiveright, who was part of a delegation led by the Hon. Edmund Bartlett that met with cruise owners and officials in Miami, Florida, recently, told JIS News that the visit of the Costa cruise ship is only a “sample” of things to come. 
  • Seiveright noted that Ocho Rios, which has been welcoming cruise passengers since August, has proven that Jamaica is adequately prepared to host ships during the COVID pandemic. This, he said, bodes well for other destinations, including Falmouth, and will open the gates for a plethora of ships to call on the island’s other ports in the coming months leading into 2022. 
  • Continued recovery in the domestic cruise industry will support the tourism rebound. As at July 2021, there have been 716,221 tourist arrivals, which is below the 1.07Mn and 2.64Mn reported in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

US$789.2 Million In Export Earnings for January to June Published: 27 October 2021

  • Jamaica generated US$789.2Mn in export earnings during the first half of 2021, between January and June. The out-turn represents a 28.3% increase over the corresponding period last year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported. 
  • Director General, Carol Coy, said this was largely due to an increase in the value of exports from the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying industries, which rose by 25.0% and 9.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, expenditure on imports rose by 15.2% to US$2.7Bn during the period, largely due to higher imports of fuel and lubricants (+46.1%) and raw material/intermediate goods (+18.8%). 
  • Despite the increase in import and exports, Jamaica recorded a decline in goods traded relative to the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic periods of 2019 and 2018, due to contractions in the local and global economies. 
  • Measures implemented to restrict movement and contain COVID-19 transmission, including the closure of borders and factories globally, led to lower production levels and demand for some products. She pointed out that as a result, the value declined significantly in 2020, and despite increasing in 2021, the value of imports and exports has not yet returned to their pre-pandemic levels. 
  • Export earnings for the 2021 review period were 14.6% and 16.1%, below the out-turns for 2019 and 2018, respectively. The value of imports for the 2021 review period was also 17.9% lower than in 2019 and 7.9% less than 2018.

(Source: JIS News)

The Gov’t of the Bahamas is $90Mn Ahead of Revenue Target Published: 27 October 2021

  • The Government beat its 2021-2022 first quarter revenue targets by $90Mn, a top official has revealed, while also disclosing that the revised Budget will not increase the deficit. 
  • Simon Wilson, the Ministry of Finance’s financial secretary, told Tribune Business that the Government’s lenders, creditors and the capital markets generally have all been informed that the supplemental Budget due to be presented to Parliament - possibly as early as this Wednesday - will not grow the deficit beyond the originally projected $951.8Mn. 
  • He also disclosed that the Government’s “underwriters” have advised it to delay placing the $700Mn foreign currency bond that the former Minnis administration had designed as the centrepiece of its gross $1.852Bn borrowing plan for the current fiscal year. 
  • No revised timeline for when it will be placed was given. However, Mr. Wilson said the advice to delay stemmed from international capital market uncertainties over US debt ceiling negotiations rather than any concerns peculiar to The Bahamas or its economic performance.

(Source: The Tribune)

Cuba to Welcome Tourists As Home-Grown Vaccine Drive Takes Hold Published: 27 October 2021

  • Cuba will open its borders and ease entry requirements next month after vaccinating most of its people with home-grown COVID-19 drugs, allowing it to welcome back overseas visitors and giving a shot in the arm to its ailing tourist industry. 
  • Tough restrictions due to the pandemic, a drastic reduction in flights to Cuba, and a U.S. ban on most travel to the Communist-run island under former U.S. President Donald Trump have hobbled Cuba’s tourism industry and left it trailing behind regional competitors such as the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Cancun. 
  • But as at Nov. 15, Cuba will only require visitors to carry proof of vaccination or a recent PCR to enter the country, replacing what were previously among the strictest protocols in the Caribbean, involving a quarantine period and multiple PCR tests. 
  • A fully vaccinated population will prove a key selling point for an island already well-regarded for its safety, beaches and turquoise waters, said Francisco Camps, who supervises Spanish firm Sol Melia’s 32 hotels in Cuba.

(Source: Reuters)

October Inflation Tracker: Uneasy Time For Central Banks Published: 27 October 2021

  • Global inflation will pose a policy challenge for central bankers as it continues to head higher, although not at the same pace as a few months ago. According to Fitch Solutions’ estimates, global inflation rose by 4.2% y-o-y in September, which is almost double the 2.2% average rate experienced in the five years prior to COVID-19 and well above most central banks’ mid-level inflation targets. 
  • In turn, many emerging market (EM) central banks have been hiking, and some of them, such as Russia and Chile quite aggressively. Developed market central banks (DM), such as the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), have slowly become more hawkish. 
  • Rising oil prices have also contributed to a rise in inflation expectations, as proxied by the US 10-year breakevens. This combined with supply chain issues suggest that inflation continues to broaden out across more countries, increasing pressure on central banks to turn more hawkish.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Published: 27 October 2021

  • U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October as concerns about high inflation were offset by improving labour market prospects, suggesting economic growth was picking up after a turbulent third quarter. 
  • The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumers are eager to buy a home and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months. The share of Americans planning to go on vacation was the largest since February 2020, just before the nation was slammed by the first wave of COVID-19 infections, which is a positive sign for Jamaica’s tourism industry. 
  • The consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 113.8 this month from 109.8 in September, ending a three consecutive month decline. "Consumers are more upbeat after a rocky third quarter and this argues for a strong finish for the economy in 2021," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

(Source: Reuters)

STATIN Develops Export and Import Price Indices Published: 26 October 2021

  • The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has developed an Export and Import Price Indices (XMPIs) that will measure quarterly price changes in the country’s goods inflows and outflows. Director General, Carol Coy, said that the development of the XMPIs is geared towards satisfying changing user needs and reflects the structural changes in the Jamaican economy. 
  • In executing its mandate of producing and delivering quality statistics, STATIN recognizes that while it is important to produce its regular statistical products in a timely manner, it also needs to ensure that it meets the growing needs of its stakeholders as best as possible, noting that the XMPI bulletin will be released on a quarterly basis. 
  • Meanwhile, Ms. Coy indicated that for the 2020 calendar year review period, the average export price fell by 10.3%, compared to the outturn in 2019. This was due to a 14.6% fall in the XPI of the Mining and Quarrying Industry, impacted by a reduction in the price of alumina. 
  • In addition, average import prices fell by 4.4% relative to 2019, resulting from a decline in the import price of ‘Fuels and Lubricants’, and reflecting the fall in global oil prices, she told journalists. Additionally, the average import price for all other categories rose. The import price of ‘Consumer Goods’ increased by 10.5%, while that for “Intermediate Goods/Raw Materials’ rose by 2.7%. 
  • Since the start of 2021, import and export prices have been affected by disruptions to the global supply chain, which could cause a rise in the XMPI for 2021.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

House to House Vaccination Begins Published: 26 October 2021

  • At least nine health departments across the island have begun house to house vaccination. Healthcare teams, including public health nurses and community health aides from Hanover, Manchester, St. Elizabeth, Trelawny, Westmoreland, St. Ann, St. Mary, Portland and St. Thomas have been deployed to communities across the island to administer the COVID-19 vaccines to shut-ins, disabled and the elderly. 
  • According to Health & Wellness Minister, Dr. the Hon. Christopher Tufton, “This house to house vaccination programme is intended to take vaccines to communities that are not close to a fixed site and to persons who are not able to travel to these sites.” 
  • This represents another phase in the national vaccination efforts and is in keeping with the principles of the programme, which includes national equity – developing appropriate deployment strategy and distribution infrastructure to ensure access to priority population. 
  • The government is hoping to vaccinate 40% of the population by Christmas and to date only 12% of the population is fully vaccinated. Therefore, the house to house vaccination will help to increase vaccination numbers, as well as put the government closer to its target. Higher inoculation rates will put the country in a stronger position to relax containment measures.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

Unemployment Trending Downwards In Barbados Published: 26 October 2021

  • Barbados’ unemployment rate seems to be on a downward trajectory, and is estimated to have been 15.9% at the end of June this year. This was 1.3 percentage points less than the rate of 17.2% recorded for the 1st quarter of 2021. This decline was supported by a 3.9 percentage points increase in the labour force participation rate to 62.6%. 
  • The Continuous Household Labour Force Survey released by the Barbados Statistical Service (BSS), showed that between April and June this year the unemployment rate for males contracted to 14.1%, while for females, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 17.8%. 
  • Further dissection of the labour force survey showed that the wholesale and retail trade industry accounted for the majority of employment with some 15,400 persons. This was followed by public administration and defence at 12,500 persons; accommodation and food services (11,400); construction, mining and quarrying industry (9,700); manufacturing (7,700); and education (7,400). 
  • Fitch Solutions forecasts that the sovereign’s unemployment rate will fall further this year to 12.3% by end 2021 from 21% in 2020. Tourism activity has been sluggish but a rise in arrivals is expected in Q4 2021, which should support higher demand for labour to meet the increase in the demand for the island’s tourism product.

(Source: Barbados Today & NCBCM Research)

Dominican Economy Will Close The Year With A Growth Rate Of 10% Published: 26 October 2021

  • In a speech on the occasion of the 74th anniversary of the Central Bank, Governor Héctor Valdez Albizu revealed that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached a growth of 12.7% in the first nine months of this year and projected that at the end of this 2021 it would be double digits (10%) or more. 
  • Valdez Albizu cited the Hotels, Bars and Restaurants sector as the great driver of growth from January to September, with 31.8%; followed by construction with 30%, free zones 24%, among other activities that in turn contributed to an increase in formal and informal employment. 
  • However, he stressed that as in previous months, construction was once again the activity with the highest impact on growth, representing almost 80% of gross fixed capital formation. 
  • “The remarkable performance of the first nine months of the year consolidates the projection that the Dominican Republic will achieve a double-digit expansion at the end of 2021, that is, 10% or more, placing the country again as one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America,” the governor said in his speech.

(Source: Dominican Today)