• Fitch Ratings on Thursday revised Peru's outlook to negative from stable, saying a deterioration in political stability and government effectiveness has increased downside risks to the country's ratings.
• The rating agency said it expects the weakening of Peru's political governance institutions will be difficult to reverse before the end of 2024, adding that "weaker governance poses greater downside risks to investment and economic growth" than the agency had expected earlier this year.
• Peru's 'BBB' ratings are supported by its moderate public debt, net external creditor position, and track record of solid macroeconomic policy and fiscal frameworks. Rating constraints include lower governance, income per capita, and social indicators than the 'BBB' median, high commodity export dependence, and the low government revenue base.
• Further deterioration of political conditions or governance indicators that undermine the political and economic framework; sustained economic growth underperformance relative to historical levels or weakening of the policy framework; sustained increase in general government debt/GDP could all lead to negative rating action.
• On the other hand, higher economic growth performance and prospects; easing political gridlock and uncertainty that improves governability; and maintenance of prudent fiscal policy settings that lead to a durable stabilization of government debt/GDP ratio are all factors that could lead to better ratings.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is set to kickstart a new era of wind and solar growth after global economic headwinds slowed progress in recent years.
• The IRA extends tax credits for wind and solar for the next ten years and allows stand-alone energy storage projects to qualify for the first time. The bill also includes tax credits for the manufacturing of wind and solar components.
• The act could lead to an additional $160 billion of investments in onshore wind, doubling installed capacity over the next decade to 280 GW, compared with an earlier growth forecast of 38%, Rystad Energy consultancy said.

(Source: Reuters

• Canadian home prices tumbled in September from August, posting the largest monthly decline since the index was launched in 1999, while year-over-year price gains continued to slow, Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price data showed on Thursday.
• The index, which tracks repeat sales of single-family homes in major Canadian markets, showed prices dropped a record 3.1% in September from August, led by sharp declines in Toronto and Hamilton, Ontario.
• The major market index is now 7.0% below the May peak, with Hamilton down 13.5% and Toronto down 11.1%. Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta, by contrast, both hit fresh index highs in August.
• Prices are still higher than a year ago, up 6.0% from September 2021, but gains are slowing. The Teranet index tracks closings, so it typically lags realtor sales data by three to five months.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the period January to June 2022, Jamaica’s total spending on imports was valued at US$3,758.2Mn, an increase of 37.4% relative to the prior period. These higher imports were driven by the reopening of the economy, higher levels of employment driving demand for goods as well as higher inflation.
• This was mostly attributed to higher imports of “Fuels and Lubricants”, “Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods” and “Consumer Goods”, which rose by 70.7%, 28.5% and 33.8%, respectively.
• Earnings from exports amounted to US$801.0Mn which represents a 2.3% increase to the prior period. This was due primarily to a 56.6% increase in the value of exports of Mineral Fuels.
• Earnings from domestic exports accounted for 82.3% of total exports from January to June 2022, a fall of 3.3% when compared to the similar period of 2021. This was due to a 55.2% reduction in exports from the Mining and Quarrying industry as alumina exports fell by 65.5% to US$78.5 million as the Jamaclo plant was closed during the period.
• The value of imports for the period January to June 2022 from Jamaica’s five main trading partners, the United States of America (USA), Brazil, China, Trinidad and Tobago and Japan, increased by 45.0% to US$2,472.7 million. This increase was due largely to higher imports of fuel from the USA and Trinidad and Tobago likely influenced by elevated energy prices and greater local economic activity spurring demand.
• The top five destinations for Jamaica’s exports were the USA, Puerto Rico, Canada, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom. The value of exports to these countries increased by 30.6% to US$654.3 million due mainly to higher exports of fuels to the USA.

(Source: STATIN)

• Fitch Solutions has revised its end-2022 interest rate forecast for Costa Rica to 9.25%, from 8.50% previously, as the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) has hiked its benchmark rate more aggressively than anticipated to 8.50% in September up from the 7.50% in July.
• The bank is expected to continue its hiking cycle at its final two meetings of the year, albeit at a slower pace, increasing the rate by 50bps on October 26 and 25bps on December 14, bringing the rate to 9.25% by end-2022, before pausing. Importantly, inflation slowed markedly in September to 10.4% y-o-y, from 12.1% in August, largely due to softer increases in food and fuel prices.
• The deceleration in inflation in September was mirrored by a decline in inflation expectations, with 12-month ahead inflation expectations in the BCCR’s survey slipping from 9.9% in August to 7.9% in September, while 24-month ahead expectations fell from 8.5% to 6.1%.
• Inflation is expected to gradually cool in 2023, averaging 6.3% and reaching 4.8% by the end of the year, due to base effects, improving supply chains, a moderation in commodity prices and the BCCR’s rate hikes. However, it will remain elevated compared to the historical inflation average of 1.3% from 2015-2021, and above the BCCR’s 2.0%-4.0% target range.
• Fitch expects that the BCCR will likely begin to lower the rate in H2 2023, to support economic growth as inflation and expectations moderate further, though inflation will not come down fast enough to allow for more aggressive rate cuts.
• Risks to Fitch’s view remain to the upside in the remainder of 2022, but in 2023 the risk is that the bank cuts more aggressively than forecast if Costa Rican growth drops sharply.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The government is working towards further reducing the duties on imported electric vehicles to support renewable energy goals. Minister of State in the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Business Development, Sandra Husbands, gave the assurance that the Barbados National Energy Policy’s goal of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2030 was still a reality.
• The objective was to improve Barbados’ energy security and resilience as well as to curb the country’s dependence on imported fuels.
• As the policy is built out, the government will implement measures to address energy consumption and efficiency within the transportation sector, conversion from fossil fuel use to electricity, transportation management, clean energy use and emissions control within the transportation sector.
• “This, in turn, will result in a sector that includes but is not limited to the operation of a greater percentage of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles in the local fleet, utilisation of a skilled workforce to provide effective maintenance on electric vehicles, a greater number of renewable energy systems installed that can be used as charging stations for electric vehicles, carports and charging stations and the reduction of duties on the importation of electric vehicles,” Husbands said.

(Source: Barbados TODAY)

• Liz Truss said on Thursday she was resigning as British prime minister just six weeks after she was appointed. Her resignation came early as she was brought down by an economic programme that sent shockwaves through financial markets last month and divided her Conservative Party.
• Speaking outside the door of her Number 10 Downing Street office, Truss accepted that she could not deliver the promises she made when she was running for Conservative leader, having lost the faith of her party.
• A leadership election will be completed within the next week to replace Truss, who is the shortest-serving prime minister in British history. George Canning previously held the record, serving 119 days in 1827 when he died.
• Appointed on Sept. 6, Truss was forced to sack her finance minister and closest political ally, Kwasi Kwarteng, and abandon almost all her economic programme after their plans for vast unfunded tax cuts crashed the pound and British bonds. Approval ratings for her and her Conservative Party collapsed.

(Source: Reuters)

• “New steps from the Group of Seven countries to cap Russian oil sales at an enforced low price will not be replicated against OPEC producers, whose plans to cut output have irked consumer countries”, a United States Treasury official told Reuters.
• The United States has communicated to representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reassure them of those limits to its plans, the official added.
• The comments could help ease a spat between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the top oil exporter and de facto OPEC leader, over what Washington sees as collaboration with Russia to deprive markets of supply just as a global recession looms.
• OPEC+, which groups the producer bloc with allies like Russia, announced last week that it would cut production by 2 million barrels per day to balance markets and quell volatility.

(Source: Reuters)

• For September 2022, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.4%.
• However, September’s point-to-point inflation fell to 9.3%, sustaining the downward trend forecasted by BOJ for H2 2022. Notably, the figure represents the lowest point-to-point inflation figure since the beginning of 2022.
• For September, the rise in monthly inflation was largely driven by the 4.1% increase in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ owing to the cessation of the Government of Jamaica’s (GoJ) 20.0% subsidy on electricity bills for customers who use 200 kilowatts per hour or less
• On November 18, 2022, the BOJ will host its next monetary policy meeting at which it is anticipated that it will continue to raise rates.  However, if the inflation rate continues to decline the central bank could temper its rate hikes from the previous 50bps movements to 25bps. This would carry the policy at or above 6.75%, from the current rate of 6.50%. This decision will be driven by the sustained expectation for future breaches in the inflation range, more aggressive Fed hikes and the still elevated inflation expectations for 12 months ahead, which rose to 12.6% in the August Survey from 13.1% in the prior survey.

(Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• The unemployment rate in July 2022 was 6.6% compared to 8.5% for the corresponding period of 2021.
• While this rate is below the pre-pandemic level, it should be noted that the employed persons declined relative to April 2022 outturn when 1,269,300 persons were employed versus 1,268,000 persons as of July 2022.
• The number of employed males increased by 11,000 (1.6%) to 688,500 year-over-year, while the number of employed females increased by 42,000 (7.8%) to 579,500, accounting for 79.2% of the increase in the employed labour force.
• The unemployment rate is expected to remain at low levels going forward due to the full reopening of the economy, increased demand for workers, especially in service sectors, as well as higher employment opportunities in the BPO and tourism sectors. The global services sector (GSS)/BPO sector grew during the pandemic and at present, Jamaica has over 60 BPO companies with over 54,000 people employed up from about 36,000 persons in 2019. The government plans to improve economic diversification and resilience through growth in this sector which bodes well for the unemployment rate.

(Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)