• Fitch Solutions, believes that the IMF’s latest economic forecasts present an overly optimistic look at EMs’ economic recovery in 2021. Instead, it expects that growth in key EMs including Chile, Turkey, Vietnam and Malaysia will fall far below the Fund’s expectations. 
• The IMF’s forecasts for 2022 are closer to Fitch’s, though, Fitch is a bit more optimistic about Chile and Vietnam and more pessimistic about Indonesia and Hungary. 
• Both Fitch and the IMF are of the view that EM inflation will ease in 2022 and over the coming years.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Approximately 350,000 Jamaicans are expected to benefit from new grants under the Government’s COVID Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) Programme which is being expanded with a further budgetary allocation of $5.3Bn. 
• Over a period of six months, one-off grants, ranging from $10,000 to $18,000 will be provided for vulnerable persons in six categories at a total cost of $3.75Bn. Clarke noted that the interventions have to be targeted to those who need it most. Everyone is affected but in the interest of social cohesion, the Government is assisting those who are most in need. 
• One group to benefit is the set of unemployed persons, who had previously received grants under the Supporting Employees with Transfer of Cash (SET Cash) component and who remain out of work as of September 30, 2021. The SET Cash component of the CARE Programme caters to employees, who have either been laid off or had their jobs terminated as of March 10, 2020, due to economic challenges resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. 
• The CARE Programme forms part of the Social and Economic Recovery and Vaccine (SERVE) Jamaica Programme, which will be the foundation for the country’s economic revival.

(Source: JIS News)

• The National COVID-19 Vaccination Operationalization Task Force has presented its preliminary findings and recommendations to Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, and Minister of Health and Wellness, Dr. the Hon. Christopher Tufton. 
• The mandate of the Task Force is to examine and optimise the operational and logistical aspects of the national vaccination programme from end to end. Some of the areas of focus include the improvement of the operation of vaccination sites, the development of strategies to recruit suitable personnel to enhance the delivery of vaccination services, engaging with various stakeholders to encourage and facilitate participation, and to make recommendations for an internationally accepted authentication of Jamaica’s vaccine delivery systems. 
• The task force, which is chaired by President and Chief Executive Officer of the Port Authority of Jamaica, Professor the Hon. Gordon Shirley, is currently finalising its first full report. A commitment has been given for the report to be submitted by the week of October 18-22, following which, the Task Force has indicated a willingness to engage with the public to discuss its recommendations. 
• The report will provide recommendations for expanding access, mitigating vaccine hesitancy, and improving the seamlessness of the national vaccination programme. Based on the need for urgent action, the Task Force has adopted an agile approach of systematically monitoring and evaluating the vaccination programme and has been providing the Ministry of Health & Wellness with critical evidence-based recommendations, which have contributed to improving accessibility and making the experience more seamless. 
• The aim is that upon implementation of these recommendations, the speed of take up of vaccines will increase to progress the country’s vaccination numbers forward to foster a reduction in infection rates and support an easing of restrictions to boost economic activity. Currently 18.7% of the population has received at least one dose of a vaccine.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is expected to contract by 1% this year, the International Monetary Fund has projected in its latest World Economic Outlook. 
• This is a drop from the projection of economic growth of 2.1% that the IMF had predicted in July. The revision comes as a COVID-19 outbreak in Q221 delayed the rebound in private consumption. 
• T&T is expected to experience economic growth of 5.4% next year as private consumption will rebound as the impact of the pandemic declines  and drives real GDP. T&T will also continue to benefit from global economic growth, which will power demand for its energy exports and drive production growth.

(Source: IMF & Fitch Solutions)

• The IMF is less optimistic about Barbados’ growth prospects this year, warning that COVID-19, especially its Delta variant, had “hobbled” the global economy’s recovery. 
• In January, the international financial institution forecast Barbados’ economy would grow by 7.4% this year, but lowered its prediction to 4.1% in April. 
• Now, in its World Economic Outlook released yesterday, the IMF said growth this year would be 3.3%, followed by 8.5% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2023. 
• The 3.3% forecast matches what the Ministry of Finance outlined in the Barbados Fiscal Framework 2022/2023 to 2024/2025 tabled in Parliament recently, and is the range of the one to three per cent outlook that Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes gave in his second quarter report. 
• That being said, an eventual rebound of tourism and base effects are anticipated to be the drivers of growth.

(Source: IMF & Nation News Barbados)

• Inflation remains sticky to the upside across developed markets (DMs); Fitch Solutions believes that the bulk of the increase in inflation is now behind us and that price pressures should start easing towards the end of Q421 as, for example, base effects and bottlenecks ease and the boosting effect of temporary factors on gas and electricity prices across Europe starts fading. 
• Weighted average DM inflation came in at 3.5% y-o-y in September according to estimates, down from 3.6% in August. 
• That being said, upside risks to the inflation outlook have risen significantly over the past weeks, and could rise further if high inflation, in conjunction with the labour market’s ongoing recovery, ultimately leads to higher wage demand and companies passing higher produce prices onto consumers.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Community transmission of COVID remains high in 89.2% of American counties, according to current data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Despite that, the latest wave, driven by the highly contagious and completely dominant Delta variant, appears to have crested, with new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to the virus all in decline from levels two weeks ago. 
• Cases and hospitalizations have decreased by roughly 20% in that period, while deaths due to the virus are down 4%, according to New York Times data from Oct. 12. 
• Meanwhile, in the nation’s ongoing vaccine drive, people seeking a booster shot now outnumber those getting their first COVID vaccine. That’s not for lack of unvaccinated individuals—23.4% of the eligible population are still in that category—but slow uptake among them, even as many employers have begun to mandate it. 
• In total, 187.7 million Americans, or 56.5% of the total population, are fully vaccinated against COVID, up from 55% a week ago. Eight and a half million of those individuals, or 4.6% of them, have also received a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine, up from 3.2% a week ago. For individuals 65 and older, 11.9% have gotten a COVID booster shot. 
• While the FDA has so far only authorized Pfizer’s booster doses for certain populations, the agency will be formally discussing Moderna and Johnson & Johnson booster data later this week.

(Source: Fortune)

• It is anticipated that tourist arrivals to the island will rise in the near term owing to the removal of travel bans placed on Jamaica by major source markets, and resumption of homeporting by major cruise lines. 
• Jamaica was recently taken off the list of restricted countries to be visited by persons from the UK. Considering this, one company named TUI, the world’s largest tourism company, is going to restart flights as early as next weekend with 2,000 passengers coming into the country, leading to close to 100,000 room nights because of this one entity. 
• In addition to this, the travel advisory had threatened plans for the resumption of homeporting for the AIDA Cruises in Montego Bay for November. However, the release of the travel advisory brings comfort and clears the way for AIDA Cruises to resume homeporting in Montego Bay. 
• Homeporting is when a ship uses a port/marine terminal as its home, regardless of its port of registry. This allows passengers to begin/terminate a cruise in the home port and positively impacts ground transportation and tours. 
• This means that given supply-chain arrangements,  Montego Bay entrepreneurs will have a chance to supply merchandise to those cruise ships coming. Hotels will also benefit from the overnight stay of people embarking and disembarking cruises and airport traffic should also increase. 
• Furthermore, Canadian tourism has also returned to Jamaica and the tourism sector is now poised to enjoy some 82.0% of 2019’s traffic coming out of Canada, the island’s second largest source market. 
• Additionally, out of the US, Expedia is showing that Jamaica is pacing second only to Mexico in the world, and Southwest and American Airlines are all similarly referencing Jamaica among the higher-pacing destinations for the winter season. 
• Taken together, these developments augur well for a faster pace of recovery in the sector and accelerated return of lost jobs, which will support economic recovery and positively trending fiscal, foreign exchange and debt dynamics.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, Hon. Audley Shaw has announced millions of dollars in investments in the agricultural sector, with the aim of  improving the sector in areas such as delivering value to stakeholders such as the tourism industry and establishing a fully integrated supply chain operation. 
• Among them is a US$95.0Mn investment to create a certified organic high-tech greenhouse farm in Goshen, St. Elizabeth, which will be the largest, by far, in the region. He informed that the joint-venture project will be undertaken on a 200-acre property over a seven-year period. 
• The US$6.0Mn Just Fruits and Vegetables Ltd. (JFVL) Agriculture Project, will deliver fresh fruits and vegetables for the domestic market, including satisfying demand from the tourism sector. The joint venture equity investment is centred on the establishment of a state-of-the-art fully integrated supply chain operation. The project involves the production, warehousing, cold storage, and multi-channel distribution of fresh produce on the domestic market. 
• Shaw said JFVL’s business model involves the engagement of contract farmers to farm a 600-acre property in Hill Run, St. Catherine, under the company’s direct management, noting that a feasibility study on the project has been completed. In addition, the Minard Estate Farm in Brown’s Town, St. Ann, will be expanded under a public-private and a 500-acre Agro Park will be built in St. Thomas, under joint-venture equity.

(Source: JIS News)

• Rebounding tourism activity in Barbados in Q421, 2022 will underpin stronger services exports and narrow the current account deficit. 
• Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 and 2022 current account deficit forecasts to 4.7% of GDP and 3.0%, from 5.0% and 3.2% previously, as remittance inflows surprised to the upside in H121. 
• That said, rising import demand in 2022, combined with slowing remittance inflows will partially offset the impact of increased services exports.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)