• For July, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7%, relative to the 0.8% increase witnessed in June.  The point-to-point inflation was 10.2% in the 12 months to July 2022, decreasing from the 10.9% reported in June 2022. This keeps inflation outside the BOJ’s target range of 4% to 6%, for the 12th consecutive month.
• For July, the increase in inflation was largely driven by the 1.4% increase in the index for the heavily weighted ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. All classes within the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division recorded increases with the classes: ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ (3.0%), ‘Cereals and cereal products’ (1.7%), ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ (0.8%) and ‘Fish and Seafood’ (0.7%), having the strongest overall impact on the division.
• Also contributing to the upward movement in the CPI for July was an increase of 0.3% in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. This was mainly a result of increased water and sewage rates.
• Other notable divisional increases were recorded in the index for the ‘Transport’ division (0.4%), influenced mainly by higher petrol prices and increased toll rates for the East-West leg of Highway 2000; and in the index for the ‘Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ division (0.8%), due primarily to higher prices for personal care products and services.
• The 12 month point-to-point inflation rate of 10.2% was influenced mainly by the point-to-point price changes for the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (12.6%), ‘Transport’ (15.2%) and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (19.1%).
• The current breach in the inflation range is in keeping with expectations, as the BOJ noted in May 2022, that inflation was projected to successively breach the target over the next two years, and is projected to peak within the range of 12.0% and 15.0% by June 2022. Rates will likely remain elevated in the short term despite a steady decline in global food and oil prices.
• Although global commodity and shipping prices are softening, the BOJ will likely administer a further policy rate increase at its next monetary policy meeting on August 18th, 2022 to contain inflation, given that inflation is still widely outside of the target range. The policy rate currently stands at 5.5%.

 (Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• Seprod Limited reported a net profit of J$1.58Bn for the 6 months ended June 30, 2022, which represents a 30.8% improvement over H1 2021.
• Revenue for the period was 40.2% higher than the $19.83Bn reported last year. The revenue growth was driven by the contribution of the recently acquired Bryden Group for the month of June 2022, robust export growth, improved product mix, improved production of fresh milk at the dairy farms, the launch of a new snack line and price increases.
• The percentage growth in net profit is less than that of the revenue growth as the company continues to absorb some of the cost increases, rather than passing the full extent of these cost increases to consumers. Total operating expenses rose 30.2% and direct expenses jumped 44.4% causing the cost of sales margin to increase to 74.7% of revenues relative to 72.5% in H1 2021.
• Overall, the global market remains volatile but management believes that the company may be at, or close to, peak prices on certain key raw materials which creates the potential for some cost retreat by Q4. This should support continued growth in the company’s profits in the following quarters. The acquisition of T&T-based AS Bryden Group is also expected to continue driving revenues and profits.
• Seprod’s stock price has increased by 6.8% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $69.17 and currently trades at a P/E of 20.9x which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 16.6x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic has just set another tourism record, as tourism in the popular Caribbean destination is growing at a dazzling pace in 2022.
• The month of July saw the most visitors to the Dom Rep in a single month in the country’s history, exceeding even that of December 2021.
• Minister of Tourism noted that if the pace continues, 2022 will be “the best year of tourism in history.” So far, the Dominican Republic has welcomed a total of 4.182Mn visitors in 2022.
• Importantly, the United States continues to dominate visitor arrivals to the country, followed by Canada, Colombia, Puerto Rico, Spain, Cuba and the United Kingdom.
• The tourism boom currently being experienced is expected to funnel revenues to the government, reduce unemployment and create more investment opportunities for the nation. However, a shock to the US labour market, or a slower recovery in overseas travel due to outbreaks of COVID-19 or Monkeypox, would limit tourist arrivals, consequently weighing on economic growth.

(Source: Our Today)

• While aggregate Developing Market (DM) growth in 2022 will still be greater than the pre-pandemic average, the growth forecast has deteriorated further in the face of persistently high inflation, poor consumer confidence, and increasingly hawkish central banks.
• DMs are expected to expand by 2.4% in 2022, which is lower than the 2.6% growth rate predicted in July but still higher than the 2015-2019 average of 2.1%. Of note, lower aggregate DM growth is mostly due to lower projected growth in the United States (down from 2.4% to 1.8%) and Germany (1.7% to 1.5%), and DM’s dependence on these countries for exports and imports.
• Some economies will grow slower than their pre-Covid five-year average in 2022, either because they are more vulnerable to conflict-related headwinds, such as eastern European countries, or because they are more impacted by lower growth in Mainland China.
• In addition, persistently high inflation is dampening consumer confidence due to its impact on purchasing power, with negative implications for consumer spending and thus headline growth in the months ahead. 
• After rising through to mid-June, DM government bond yields have since eased as investors have started to price in lower inflation in the medium term, amid more hawkish central banks and rapidly mounting growth concerns.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• India could scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports and cap the amount of stocks traders can hold to try to dampen record high domestic prices in the world's second-biggest producer, government and trade officials told Reuters on Monday, August 8, 2022.
• Late in the day, the trade ministry said it would restrict the export of some wheat-derived products like finely milled "maida" and semolina from Aug. 14, with only an inter-ministerial committee allowed to clear their shipment. Exports of the items are generally small.
• India barred wheat exports in May after the crop suffered a heatwave, but domestic prices still rose to a record high, and yet still, international prices are way above the domestic market, making it unviable for traders to buy from abroad.
• If the government does remove the duty, and international prices also fall, then traders say they could start importing, especially during the upcoming festival season, when higher demand typically drives domestic prices higher.
• Domestic wheat prices ended last week at a record 24,000 rupees ($301.57) per tonne, having risen 14% from lows struck after the government surprised markets on May 14 by banning exports, ending hopes that India could fill the market gap left by missing Ukraine grain. Domestic prices are still nearly a third lower than global prices, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading firm, who described Indian wheat as the cheapest in the world.

(Source: Reuters)

• Germany's economy will lose more than 260 billion euros ($265 billion) in added value by 2030 due to the Ukraine war and high energy prices, spelling negative effects on the labour market, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).
• In comparison with expectations for a peaceful Europe, Germany's price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lower next year and there will be about 240,000 fewer people in employment, said the study published on Tuesday, August 9^th, 2022.
• The employment level is expected to stay at around this level until 2026 when expansive measures will gradually begin to outweigh the negative effects and lead to a plus of about 60,000 gainfully employed in 2030.
• One of the big losers will be the hospitality industry, which was already hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and is likely to feel the pinch of consumers' waning purchasing power. Energy-intensive sectors, such as the chemical industry and metal production, are also especially likely to be affected.
• It is mentioned that if energy prices, which have so far shot up by 160%, were to double again, Germany's 2023 economic output would be almost 4% lower than it would have been without the war, according to the study. Under these assumptions, 660,000 fewer people would be employed after three years and still 60,000 fewer in 2030.

(Source: Reuters)

• JMMB Holding Company, SRL and its parent JMMB Group Limited have received final regulatory approval for the purchase of 100% of the shares in Banco Múltiple Bell Bank, S.A. in the Dominican Republic as well as to merge said entity with Banco Ahorro y Crédito, JMMB Bank, SA on July 28, 2022.
• This is a significant milestone for the JMMB Group, as this will be their first commercial bank in the Dominican Republic.
• The JMMB DR Group currently includes the brokerage house, JMMB Puesto de Bolsa SA, a fund management company, JMMB Funds, and a pension fund administrator company AFP JMMB BDI, S.A.
• This acquisition and merger complement their regional diversification strategy as the company seeks to more effectively fulfil the financial needs of the local market in the Dominican Republic.
• Along with diversifying the company’s revenue streams, the acquisition is expected to further improve the company’s bottom line which saw a 54.2% increase in the last financial year (March 2022) over its prior period.

(Source: JSE)

• The Jamaica-based creative company, iCreate Limited is seeking to raise some J$425Mn in capital to continue its expansion programme, in particular the acquisition of Visual Vibes.Com Limited, one of the leading video board advertising companies in the country.
• The company requires additional funding to continue to execute its growth strategy through mergers and acquisitions. On May 19, the board of directors of the company passed a resolution, subject to the approval of the shareholders, authorizing raising J$425Mn by way of a Rights Issue, offering to the existing shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional ordinary shares in the company.
• Subsequent to this, on July 18, iCreate’s board of directors passed another resolution, subject to the approval of the shareholders, authorising the acceptance of convertible debt financing of J$100 million and US$400,000 to be provided by Astronomical Holdings Limited and Kintyre Holdings Limited, respectively.
• The loans will be converted to ordinary shares at a conversion price as will be the same as the subscription price fixed for the ordinary shares proposed to be made available for subscription according to the Rights Issue.
• The company is convening a hybrid extraordinary general meeting, scheduled to be held on Thursday, August 25, 2022, to vote on its proposed rights issue and approval of convertible debt financing.
• The shareholders are being asked to vote on a resolution to authorize the subscription of new ordinary of up to $212.5Mn ordinary shares (with the option to upsize as the directors in their absolute discretion may approve). The same allotment of $212.5Mn shares will be made available as per the debt financing conversion to equity holding to amount to the full funding requirement of $425Mn.

(Source: JSE)

• According to a Reuters poll, Mexican inflation in July will likely speed up again to a near-22-year high, fueling bets the country's central bank will continue to hike its key interest rate through the rest of the year.
• Notably, Mexico's central bank, which targets inflation at 3% plus or minus one percentage point, has raised its benchmark interest rate by 375 basis points over its last nine monetary policy meetings, to 7.75%.
• With annual core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to reach 7.60%, also the highest since late 2000, the market is expecting a further 75-basis-point hike at the bank's next rate decision scheduled for Thursday. Analysts are projecting that the total interest rate will hit 9.5% by the end of the year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Barbados will soon be home to a World Food Programme logistics hub which will make it easier for food supplies to be transported to Caribbean countries impacted by natural disasters.
• The programme will set up its hub giving it easy access to the runway, Barbados’ network and the rest of the Caribbean.  The main component of the hub will be a large warehouse that will allow the World Food Programme to pre-position food and other necessary supplies for the aftermath of a disaster.
• The government plans to play a role in the logistics centre to benefit Barbadians and other Caribbean nationalities. Of note, after hurricanes Maria and Irma ravaged neighbouring nations, especially Dominica, it became evident that the program's presence in the region was inadequate.
• The hub can improve access to healthy foods in low-income or underserved areas by making it easier for farmers to offer their products in these areas by assuming costs associated with infrastructure and logistics.
• That said, Barbados stands to benefit as logistics hubs add value by lowering the costs of transportation, storage, and distribution of commodities from producer to consumer, boosting business competitiveness.

 (Source: Barbados Today)