• The Government will be increasing budgetary spending by approximately $33.0Bn during the current fiscal year to provide additional resources to the health sector, increased support for the most vulnerable, along with funding for other critical areas of expenditure due to the coronavirus pandemic. 
• The additional allocation increases the budget to just over $863.0Bn. Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, noted that the First Supplementary Estimates are being tabled within the context of government revenues exceeding budgetary targets by $17.3Bn billion for April to July 2021. 
• Robust economic growth of 12.9% for the first quarter of this fiscal year, as the economy begins a strong recovery from COVID-19, has buttressed revenue uptake. Total expenditure is being increased by approximately $33.0Bn, while total revenues are being revised upwards by $33.5Bn for the full fiscal year. 
• Of the $27.5Bn increase in recurrent non-debt expenditure, 56.0% or $15.6Bn is being allocated to the health sector and towards support of the most vulnerable through the SERVE Jamaica Programme. As such, the full-year allocation to the SERVE will increase from $60.0Bn to $75.6Bn. The SERVE Jamaica Programme is the Government’s social and economic recovery initiative that is designed to respond to the challenges posed by COVID-19, and to facilitate a timely recovery from the pandemic and its effects.

(Source: JIS News)

• Guyana’s eighth oil consignment is slated to be lifted in November, according to Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat, who confirmed that this next oil lift will also mark the fifth for this year. 
• On Tuesday, the Guyana Chronicle reported that because of the continued rise in global oil prices, the country’s petroleum revenues will remain on an upward trajectory, with the country’s eighth oil lift positioned to rake in close to US$80 million. 
• At the time of that report, the price for brent crude was pegged at approximately $79.24 – its highest since October 2018. However, that figure has dropped slightly to $78.72 per barrel, as at Tuesday. 
• Should this remain the case during Guyana’s November oil sale, the country would earn some $78,720,000, which would be less than revenues garnered from the seventh oil lift that valued US$79,617,561.87, and marked the largest single oil payment the country has received to date.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The manufacturing sector continues to be a key contributor to the economic success of St. Kitts and Nevis despite COVID-19 challenges, said Prime Minister, Dr. the Honourable Timothy Harris, during his monthly press conference held at the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) Conference Room on September 28. 
• The manufacturing and export sectors in St. Kitts and Nevis are on the rebound as global economic activity picks up following the slowdown caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic. 
• “Entities such as JARO Limited, Carib Brewery (St. Kitts & Nevis) Limited, Kajola Kristada Limited and API Harowe (St. Kitts) are contributing to GDP in real terms in spite of COVID-19 challenges,” said Prime Minister Harris. “A look at the manufacturing sector shows that this sector has been resilient. It has created direct employment for over 1,200 persons. 
• After contracting by 18.7% in 2020, the IMF is projecting a narrower contraction of 2.0% for the economy in 2021 due to the severe impact that the pandemic has on the tourism sector. 
• However, rebound in tourism should prompt a strong recovery from 2022 onward, with the pre-pandemic GDP level expected to be reached in 2024. However, the recovery path could be derailed should the pandemic impose sustained disruptions on the anticipated pace of tourism inflows and domestic activity. Other risks include financial sector uncertainties, natural disasters, and lower-than-expected Citizenship by Investment (CBI) receipts. 
• As the recovery takes hold, the IMF expects policy focus will shift to rebuilding fiscal buffers by resuming to save part of the CBI revenues, preparing the financial system for exit from the temporary support measures and pursuing structural reforms to support productivity, economic competitiveness, and human capital.

(Source: SKN Vibes & IMF)

• Fitch Solutions expects that market volatility will remain elevated in the short term due to a combination of factors weighing on the economic recovery and global markets. The recent sell-off was triggered by (1) Jerome Powell’s (the US Federal Reserve Chairman) warning to US Congress that inflation could remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated, and (2) potential contentious negotiations on Capitol Hill as the US is nearing its debt ceiling. 
• Furthermore, markets had already been weakening on the back of slowing growth momentum, due to the fading of hitherto strong base effects, the waning of credit impulse in several economies (US and China in particular), growth concerns in China and elevated inflation. 
• Slowing growth and rising inflation could be further exacerbated by the current energy crunch. Energy prices, as proxied by natural gas, have soared by around 150% since April and will likely remain elevated as the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches. Rising energy prices could sap consumer and business purchasing power, while power shortages could also result in lost output, adding further pressure on supply bottlenecks.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Supply constraints thwarting global economic growth could still get worse, keeping inflation elevated longer, even if the current spike in prices is still likely to remain temporary, the world's top central bankers warned on Wednesday. 
• Global inflation has spiked in recent months on a surge in energy prices, and the production bottlenecks are pushing prices even higher, raising fears that the run-up, if it lasts long enough, could seep into expectations and raise the overall profile of inflation. 
• The problem is that central banks, the main authority for controlling prices, have no influence over short-term supply disruptions, so they are likely to be bystanders, waiting for economic anomalies to self-correct without lasting damage. 
• Still, even as policymakers called for heightened attention to inflation, all maintained their long standing view that the spike in inflation would be temporary and price rises would moderate next year, moving back to or below central bank targets.

(Source: Reuters)

• Margaritaville (Turks) Ltd. has reported a significant decline in its earnings from a net profit of US$72,132 in FY 2020 to a loss of US$1.38Mn in FY 2021, on the back of a falloff in revenues. 
• At the close of the financial year ended May 2021, one of the major cruise lines, Carnival cruise, had not resumed activity in Grand Turk, which contributed to a 99.2% decline in revenues. However, as vaccination rates in source markets increase and as cruise ships gradually resume operations, the company’s revenues should begin to improve. 
• The impact of the falloff in revenues on the company’s bottom-line was tempered by a decline in direct, admin and promotional expenses by 97.4%, 70.9% and 100.0%, respectively. The drop in admin expenses was partly due to lower spending on employee benefits such as salaries, wages, medical and related expenses. 
• Margaritaville’s stock price has fallen by 65.4% since the start of the year and closed Tuesday’s trading session at a price of $15.05 per share.

(Source: Margaritaville Financials & NCBCM Research)

• The continued global spread of COVID-19 will delay the rebound of tourism activity in the Bahamas, undermining export and private consumption growth and pushing back the economic recovery into H221 and 2022. 
• As a result, Fitch Solutions has revised down its 2021 real GDP forecast to 1.5%, from 3.1% previously, and have revised up its 2022 forecast to 4.8%, from 3.3% previously. 
• Government stimulus and investment growth will also support activity in the quarters ahead, though there are still downside risks to growth posed by the continued spread of the pandemic.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Cuba is allowing a staggered opening from Friday of restaurants, shopping centres and beaches in provinces that have lowered coronavirus cases even as it battles some of the highest nationwide rates of infection per capita worldwide. 
• The easing of lockdown restrictions coincides with preparations by the cash-strapped Caribbean island nation for its tourist high season, which it hopes will bring much-needed dollars to palliate a dire economic crisis. 
• The government has already announced it will allow more flights and accept COVID-19 vaccination certificates for inbound travelers in lieu of a PCR test from November. "In recent days we have determined the conditions are there to gradually reopen many of these in-person services," said Interior Commerce Minister Betsy Diaz. 
• Health officials said coronavirus infections started falling in September from their peak over the summer months as they raced to vaccinate more than 90% of the population by mid-November with their home-grown COVID-19 vaccines.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Tuesday the government could run out of cash by Oct. 18 unless Congress acts to lift the federal debt limit in advance of the Treasury Department exhausting efforts to preserve resources. 
• "At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly," Yellen told lawmakers during a Senate Banking Committee hearing, echoing comments she made in a letter to lawmakers. 
• "It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date," she said in the letter, one day after Senate Republicans rejected a measure to raise the nation's borrowing limit to pay for previously incurred government spending. 
• The Treasury had already undertaken measures to keep government funds flowing after the debt ceiling was reached over the summer. But those measures will run out in about 20 days, although the exact date could vary.

(Source: Reuters)

• More than a million British workers face an uncertain future this week as the UK becomes the world's first big economy to wind up its COVID-19 jobs support scheme. 
• The programme, which at its peak paid a third of employees to stay at home, cost more than 68 billion pounds ($93 billion) - the most expensive single piece of UK economic support during the pandemic. 
• Other European countries with more tradition of short-time working programmes such as Germany are keeping furlough support longer, at least for harder-hit sectors. 
• But with employers reporting record-high job vacancies and acute shortages of workers such as truck drivers most observers think Britain is right to end its programme on Sept. 30. 
• However, these support programmes have helped to bolster consumer saving and spending in the past year and as such its end could result in a drop in consumer demand and lower than expected recovery in the near term.

(Source: Reuters & NCBCM Research)