• Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, says the Government continues to position Jamaica as a regional country that is “growing significantly”. “I’m very proud of the fact that Jamaica has resolved issues related to the financial/fiscal management of its economic affairs. I believe we are on a very good course, having gone through several International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes, to entrench this kind of fiscal stability, fiscal prudence and good fiscal management,” Mr. Holness said. “We are on a trajectory for growth, and I think that is another major achievement,” he added. 
• The Prime Minister was speaking on American TV network, WNYW-Fox 5’s morning programme, ‘Good Day New York’, with host Rosanna Scotto, on Tuesday (July 13). Mr. Holness advised that the Government was also tackling other institutional and development issues in Jamaica. These, he informed, include strengthening of the country’s bureaucracy to deal with matters such as corruption, while focusing on enhancing the efficiency of public service delivery. 
• He also noted that the Administration is investing heavily in bolstering the country’s national security framework, both in relation to the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) and Jamaica Defense Force (JDF). 
• The Prime Minister pointed out that Government was also boosting resources for the education sector, adding that “in a few months, we will roll out some transformative policies. “These are long-term investments, which will have significant effects on the transformation of our country,” Mr. Holness underscored.

(Source: JIS)

• With the approval of amendments to the Casino Gaming Act in the Senate, the Government is aiming to attract investments in the country and increase economic activity as part of recovery efforts from the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the tourism sector. 
• Piloting the Casino Gaming (Amendment) Act, 2021 in the Senate on July 9, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator the Hon. Kamina Johnson Smith, said the amendments are aimed at strengthening the country’s competitiveness in the tourism industry. 
• “Tourism is one of the largest contributors to the country’s economy, 31% of Jamaica’s GDP in 2019, and it provides an estimated 350,000 direct and indirect jobs. Stimulating investments in integrated resorts development is expected to strengthen Jamaica’s competitiveness in the tourism industry and to bolster economic development through job creation, increased tax revenue and additional demand for locally produced goods,” she said. 
• Senator Johnson Smith explained that the proposed amendments are aimed at making changes to the requirement that a prospective investor must fulfil and of which the Minister with responsibility for Finance must be satisfied, in order to declare an integrated resort development to be an approved integrated resort development. 
• An integrated resort is a major resort property that includes a hotel with a casino, together with convention facilities, entertainment shows, theme parks, luxury retail and fine dining.

(Source: JIS)

• Weak tourism activity in H221 and a nationwide public health lockdown in February and March will drag down headline real GDP growth in Barbados in 2021. 
• Against this background, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, from 3.1% previously, given the expectations for underperformance in H221 activity. 
• The agency expects economic activity will remain sluggish into Q321.Tourism activity is highly seasonal, with Q1 and Q4 seeing the bulk of arrivals. Given that vaccines were not widely available until Q2 in key tourism source markets such as the US and UK, Fitch expects the 2021 headline growth figure to reflect the slow return of tourism activity. 
• Moreover, a spike in COVID-19 cases in July has prompted the government to re-impose overnight curfews starting July 13, which will limit commercial activity and weigh on employment.
• However, an eventual rebound of tourism and base effects is expected which will boost the 2022 headline growth figure. Considering this, the agency has revised its 2022 real GDP growth forecast upwards to 4.0%, from 3.5% previously.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The 800,000 Sinopharm vaccines from China arrived in Trinidad and Tobago at approximately 12:21 pm on Tuesday. 
• In a post on his Facebook page, Foreign and Caricom Affairs Minister Dr. Amery Browne showed video of the plane landing as well as on the runway at the Piarco International Airport. 
• This is the third batch in less than 60 days, adding the total of donation and procurement of Chinese vaccines in TT to 1.1 million doses. China is committed to contributing to global vaccine accessibility. 
• The first shipment of 100,000 vaccines was a gift from the Chinese government which arrived on May 19. The second shipment of 200,000 vaccines was bought by the government and arrived in TT on June 14. These shipments have helped the government to partially and fully vaccinate 33.5% and 25.3% of the population, respectively, which is one of the highest rates in the  Caribbean. A continuous increase in the vaccination rate will support the country’s ability to foster the relaxation of restrictions, a faster return to normalcy and a rebound in activity in the non-energy sector.

(Source: T&T Newsday & NCBCM Research)

• S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai met her British counterpart Liz Truss in Washington on Tuesday, and the two agreed to continue working to strengthen bilateral ties, Tai's office said in a statement. 
• Tai and Truss agreed that their recent truce in a long-running trade dispute over aid for plane makers Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:BA) creates a platform for "future collaboration on shared challenges, including those posed by the anti-competitive practices of China and other non-market economies." 
• They also stressed the importance of fair competition in the global economy and agreed to work together both on a bilateral and multilateral basis to enhance the international trading system, and address forced labour issues.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil was steady near the highest close since October 2018 after an industry report pointed to a further decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding to signs of a rapidly tightening global market. 
• Futures in New York traded near $75 a barrel after rising 1.6% on Tuesday. The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories slid by more than 4 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. That would be an eighth straight weekly draw, the longest run of declines since January 2018, if confirmed by government figures later on Wednesday. 
• Some uncertainty looms over the market, however. Indonesia posted a record number of new virus cases, while Sydney extended a lockdown as the delta variant continues to sweep the globe. The resurgence, as well as the OPEC+ impasse on raising crude production have clouded the short-term outlook. 
• Still, oil has rallied more than 50% this year as the vaccine rollout lifts demand in major economies such as the U.S., and the International Energy Agency is warning that the market will tighten significantly if OPEC+ doesn’t resolve its standoff and boost production. Talks broke down last week and it’s looking increasingly likely that the alliance won’t add more supply in August as members lock in supply volumes to customers next month.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Canadian tourism has officially returned to Jamaica. The island welcomed back the first Air Canada flight following a six-month hiatus, with Air Canada’s first Dreamliner flight to the country.
• “Canada is the second-largest source market for Jamaica and the return of Canadian tourism in Jamaica is welcome news for our country’s hotel partners, attractions, transportation providers, hospitality workers, and the thousands of individuals employed in our tourism related industries,” said Edmund Bartlett. 
• “Air Canada is very pleased to resume our passenger service to Jamaica, which we have proudly served for more than 70 years,” said Luis Noriega Benet, General Manager, Latin America and the Caribbean for Air Canada. “There is no doubt many Canadians are looking to travel to Jamaica for a long-postponed sun holiday. As well, there are many people both in Jamaica and Canada who are eager to visit with friends and family members they have not been able to see since the pandemic began.” 
• The resumption of Canadian flights to Jamaica will support the expected H2 2021 recovery in the tourism sector. However, it is possible that Air Canada could cancel flights to Jamaica once more if cases continue to rise locally.

(Source: Carib Journal & NCBCM Research)

• The entertainment sector will be monitored over the coming weeks to ensure compliance with the COVID-19 protocols governing the operation of the industry. Speaking at a special meeting of the Trelawny Municipal Corporation on Thursday (July 8), Minister of Local Government and Rural Development, Hon. Desmond McKenzie, said there have been widespread breaches of the Disaster Risk Management Act by industry players since Prime Minister, the Most. Hon.  Andrew Holness, announced special measures for the reopening of the sector. 
• He informed that based on assessments, some 600 illegal parties have been held across the island since the announced measures. He reminded sector players that permits are required to stage entertainment events, noting that it is in their best interest to ensure full compliance with the protocols. 
• “So, we are going to ramp up the monitoring over the next two to three weeks, because the Municipal Corporations have been receiving applications and they have been granting approvals. We are going to put more boots on the ground and we are going to ensure that the restrictions that were eased based on the Prime Minister’s announcement, that this is not abused by the sector,” he said. 
• He pointed out that the entertainment sector has been one of the hardest hit since March last year, and failure to comply with the prescribed protocols will force the Government to take strong action. “Anything that was announced in Parliament goes up until the 10th of August, so what it means is that if we are not convinced, then action can be taken, even before the 10th of August,” the Minister said.

(Source: JIS)

• A wave of protests in Cuba fueled by economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic serve as the most open sign of discontent with the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) government in decades and suggest a rise in social stability risks. 
• Minimal growth is expected in Cuba this year due to US sanctions on travel and remittances and a severe spike in COVID-19, which is preventing a recovery in tourism and day-to-day commerce. 
• Additionally, shortages of hard currency amid rising global commodity prices have caused imports to sharply contract, generating shortages of food, electricity and other basic goods, while the unification of Cuba’s dual currency system in January has generated extremely high inflation. 
• Fitch Solutions expects the government to respond to the political situation with repression of demonstrators and potentially minor concessions aimed at taking the momentum out of the protests. 
• Further, while protests could continue to grow in size, Fitch believes the PCC’s extensive security apparatus and the relatively disorganized opposition limit the risks to the party’s hold on power.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• El Salvador’s economic recovery will boost government revenues, narrowing the country’s fiscal deficit, which widened to 10.1% of GDP in 2020, in the quarters ahead. 
• The country’s budget deficit in 2020 was the largest on record and one of the widest in Latin America, behind only Brazil and Bolivia. Public health spending pushed up government expenditures significantly, while a 7.9% contraction of real GDP severely undermined government receipts. 
• The deficit in 2020 was substantially larger than the average 3.0% shortfall from 2015 to 2019, and the primary balance flipped to -5.8%, the first deficit since 2016. 
• Revenue prints have surprised to the upside in the year through May and, as a result, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 and 2022 fiscal deficit forecasts to 6.3% of GDP and 3.9% respectively, from 7.2% and 4.9% previously. 
• The agency forecasts that as deficits persist total public debt will climb to 98.7% of GDP by end-2021, from 73.6% in 2019, though it has not factored a potential IMF programme into this forecast.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)