• China’s V-shaped economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic is slowing, sending a warning to the rest of world about how durable their own recoveries will prove to be. 
• The changing outlook was underscored Friday when the People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash most banks must hold in reserve in order to boost lending. While the PBOC said the move isn’t a renewed stimulus push, the breadth of the 50 basis-point cut to most banks reserve ratio requirement came as a surprise. 
• Data on Thursday is expected to show growth eased in the second quarter to 8% from the record gain of 18.3% in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. Key readings of retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment are all set to moderate too. 
• Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Venice on Saturday signaled alarm over threats that could derail a fragile global recovery, saying new variants of the coronavirus and an uneven pace of vaccination could undermine a brightening outlook for the world economy. China’s state media also cited several analysts Monday saying domestic growth will slow in the second half because of an uncertain global recovery.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• US President Joe Biden’s efforts to promote multilateralism on the world stage will continue, at least until the November 2022 US mid-term elections. 
• Biden’s actions as president thus far suggest that he is positioning the US to bolster the ‘liberal international order’ through increased multilateralism on issues such as trade, security, and tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. 
• Biden is also seeking a renewed nuclear deal with Iran. Biden’s amicable face-to-face meetings with the leaders of the G7 nations, NATO, and EU in mid-June signaled his desire to pursue a multilateral approach. 
• However, the forces of de-globalization have been strengthened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the US-China rivalry, which threaten to bifurcate parts of the global economy. 
• US allies that have welcomed a return to multilateralism will still need to be mindful that the assertive unilateralism of the Trump era could return after the 2024 US presidential elections.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Aided by the recovery in the local stock market,  Mayberry Jamaican Equities reported earnings of $406.66Mn (EPS: $0.34) for the six months ending June 2021, a significant improvement over the $1.15Bn net loss in H1 2020. 
• Operating income totaled $573.82Mn, relative to the -$1.10Bn loss in 2020 as the stock market grew by +9.0% during the period, relative to the 26.1% contraction recorded in 2021 due to COVID-19 induced sell-off. The company also recorded $496.43Mn in unrealized gains on investments, compared to the $1.25Bn loss incurred in 2020. 
• Investor sentiment improved during the 2021 period as the government relaxed restrictions, and a number of companies on the stock market saw improved earnings, which received positive reactions from investors. 
• MJE stock price has appreciated by 12.9% since the start of the year and closed trading at $9.01 on July 08, 2021. The last reported net asset value per share for period ending June 30, 2021 was $12.42, which means that the fund currently trades at a 37.8% discount to NAVPS.

(Source: Company Financials

• Credit growth in Mexico’s banking sector is forecast to reach 6.4% at end-2021 on the back of an economic rebound, though rising interest rates will place a ceiling on loan demand. 
• Total loans spiked in Q220 alongside the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising from MXN5.40Tn in January 2020 to a peak of MXN5.84Tn in April. However, this increase reflected the use of credit lines to meet immediate liquidity needs, as well as currency effects, which increased the value of the sector’s foreign currency loans in MXN terms. 
• Higher asset growth combined with a steady improvement across a range of indicators such as leverage and non-performing loans suggests the banking sector will remain stable moving forward. 
• Fitch Solutions maintains its constructive long-term outlook on the sector, given Mexico’s improving economic outlook and relatively low levels of banking sector penetration. 
• This outlook augurs well for the interest income and general profitability of banking and non-banking financial corporates such as Banorte, Alpha Holdings, and Unifin Financiera.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions is broadly neutral on Latin America FX in the short term as it expects that the bearish impact of less favourable commodity prices will negate the bullish factor of increasing hawkishness among the region's central banks.  
• In the longer term, it is expected that the region's major currencies will largely depreciate against the US dollar, particularly as the US Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy and near-term bullish tailwinds begin to fade. 
• While the agency maintains an extremely bearish view on the Argentine peso in the short- and long-term due to persistent inflation, the Colombian peso, Mexican peso and Peruvian sol are likely to appreciate from spot prices in H221.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Pfizer Inc plans to ask U.S. regulators to authorize a booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine within the next month, the drug maker’s top scientist said on Thursday, based on evidence of greater risk of reinfection six months after inoculation and the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. 
• Pfizer Chief Scientific Officer Mikael Dolsten said the recently reported dip in the vaccine's effectiveness in Israel was mostly due to infections in people who had been vaccinated in January or February. The country's health ministry said vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% in June. 
• Pfizer's own data from the United States showed an erosion of the vaccine efficacy to the mid-80s after six months, Dolsten said, against the variants that were circulating there in the spring. He stressed that data from Israel and Britain suggests that even with waning antibody levels, the vaccine remains around 95% effective against severe disease. 
• Dolsten said that early data from the company's own studies shows that a third booster dose generates antibody levels that are five to 10-fold higher than after the second dose, suggesting that a third dose will offer promising protection. He said multiple countries in Europe and elsewhere have already approached Pfizer to discuss booster doses, and that some may begin administering them before a potential U.S. authorization.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United Kingdom is liable to pay 47.5 billion euros ($56.23 billion) to the European Union as part of its post-Brexit financial settlement, according to the EU's consolidated budget report for 2020. The report adds that the money is owed under a series of articles which both sides agreed to as part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. 
• The total amount is significantly higher than expected. The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in its March 2018 economic and fiscal outlook report that the bill would amount to 41.4 billion euros. 
• An initial amount of 6.8 billion euros is due for payment in 2021, the EU's consolidated budget report added, with the remainder of the amount to be paid later. A sum total amount of 47.5 billion euros was mentioned in the report as "net receivable from the UK". 
• A trade and cooperation deal between the UK and EU was struck in December after more than four years of acrimonious negotiations and lingering mistrust as Britain ended 47 years of EU membership.

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says the investments made by Chukka Caribbean Adventures to upgrade and reopen facilities in Jamaica, during the coronavirus pandemic, is a further indication of investor confidence in the strengthening of the local tourism sector. Chukka spent US$2Mn on a new nature adventure park, which opened in Sandy Bay, Hanover last December, and a further US$250,000 to upgrade its Good Hope attraction in Trelawny, which reopened July 2. 
• Minister Bartlett stated that as a reliable partner and a major credit to Jamaica’s tourism offerings, Chukka’s contribution to the tourism industry is immeasurable. Their attractions remain world-class, both in product and service, and they are also a major pull factor for both cruise and stopover visitors. 
• Chief Executive Officer of Chukka Caribbean Adventures, Marc Melville, told JIS News that the company has always been guided by the old adage that “wherever there is a crisis there are always opportunities, and that was something we felt to the core while battling this pandemic”. “In the middle of this, many people would have stopped investing. Investment comes out of hope and confidence and… knowing that we were going in the right direction. That allowed us to go against the tide, put our money where our mouth is and build out the [facilities] that we now have on full display,” he noted.

(Source: JIS)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon Edmund Bartlett, says the recovery of the tourism sector is taking place faster than anticipated with arrivals for the year now projected at 1.8Mn visitors up from the previous estimate of 1.61Mn. If this is realized, total visitor arrivals would be 2.43Mn below the total 4.23Mn arrivals reported in 2019, but 0.47Mn above total arrivals in 2020. He credited the strong performance to Jamaica’s management of the pandemic, noting that the “quality of the product was maintained”, which has “done us well”. 
• He noted that over the last three months, weekend arrivals have been significant, averaging 15,000 visitors over the three-day period, and with new flights coming into the island, the numbers are poised to increase even further. This, he said, means that jobs and revenue flows were coming back at a much faster rate. 
• John Byles, the chairman of the Tourism Resilient Corridors Committee (TRCC) and Vice President for Tourism in the Private Sector Organization of Jamaica (PSOJ), said that if the current growth trajectory for stopover arrivals continues, coupled with the expected return of the cruise ships in the fall season, Jamaica could report total arrivals equivalent to its pre-COVID numbers “from summer all the way into the winter”.

(Source: JIS)

• The troubled Caribbean nation of Haiti was plunged into chaos after its president, Jovenel Moise, was assassinated in a nighttime raid. This led acting Prime Minister Claude Joseph to declare a state of emergency. 
• Joseph said the president was murdered by highly trained and heavily armed killers who stormed the presidential residence above the capital Port-Au-Prince at around 1 a.m on Wednesday. 
• The first lady Martine Moise was also injured in the attack and Haiti’s ambassador to Washington, Bocchit Edmond, said she was being medically evacuated to South Florida. Miami’s Local 10 News said the first lady had been taken to Jackson Memorial Hospital in stable but critical condition, with gunshot wounds to her arms and thigh. 
• A nation of 11 million and the poorest in the Americas, Haiti has been terrorized for months by gang violence, driving thousands from their homes. President Moise, accused by human rights groups of links to the gangs, was ruling by decree and increasingly seen as an autocrat. Elections were scheduled for September but concerns were growing about whether they would be held. 
• With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$1,149.50 and a Human Development Index ranking of 170 out of 189 countries in 2020, Haiti remains the poorest country in the Latin America and Caribbean region and among the poorest countries in the world. The Haitian economy contracted by 3.7% in 2020 (IMF) as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the already weak economy and political instability. The country is expected to expand by 1% this year however its vulnerability to natural disasters, a potential worsening of the viral outbreak, and a resurgence of civil unrest could undermine this forecast.

(Source: Bloomberg & NCBCM Research)