• Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, says the Government is making the largest capital investment ever made in agriculture, with more than $12 billion programmed across fiscal years 2022/23 and 2023/24. He indicated that the provision is earmarked to build out irrigation, pumps, piping, storage and farm road infrastructure in St. Catherine, Clarendon, and St. Elizabeth.
• The Minister further informed that this is being done through the Essex Valley and Southern Plains Agricultural Development Projects. This will help to deliver high or value-added agriculture opportunities.
• Meanwhile, Dr. Clarke highlighted that the Ministry of Tourism is working assiduously to diversify the tourism product. “We are working to introduce higher-end integrated resorts, which require higher value-added, higher paying jobs,” he stated, adding that the Government is about to issue the first licence for integrated resort development.
• An integrated resort development must have a minimum of 1,000 hotel rooms, of which 500 must be luxury rooms. Additionally, the development must have a minimum capital investment of US$500 million.
• The concept was introduced by the Government in consideration of further expanding the tourism product. These luxury resort developments include but are not limited to, hotels, villas, sporting and recreational facilities, shopping centres and casino gaming.
• As travellers become more demanding and change their expectations of destinations, the diversification of tourism offerings is necessary. This will boost Jamaica’s global competitiveness and allow the industry stakeholders to successfully tap into new markets.

(Source: JIS News)

• Fitch Solutions expects the popularity of the ruling Movimiento Electoral di Pueblo (MEP) government to face pressure from elevated inflation in 2023. Fitch gave Aruba a score of 72.1 (out of 100) on the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI), down from 75.2 previously which places Aruba in 14th position out of the 18 markets covered in the Caribbean region.  This is down several places from Fitch’s last update in 2022.
• The main reason for the downward STPRI revision is the expected impact of elevated inflation on social stability and the pressure it will put on the minority MEP government in 2023.
• Higher inflation will erode real household disposable incomes and weigh on living conditions in Aruba. Consumer price inflation was 6.6% y-o-y in January due to elevated global oil and food prices.  Fitch forecasts inflation will remain elevated in 2023, averaging 5.0%, well above an average of 2.3% registered in 2000 to 2022. This trend will be exacerbated by wage subsidy programmes implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic coming to an end.
• To combat some of the impacts of elevated inflation on household incomes, the MEP rolled back a 5.0% cut to public sector wages implemented during the pandemic in July 2022. It also increased the minimum wage by 4.3% to USD1,051.88 on 1 January 2023. However, elevated inflation means some public sector workers and those on low incomes will still face real-terms declines in their incomes.
• Declining real wages and stagnating living standards are likely to weigh on support for the MEP. Given that protests are relatively rare in Aruba and small-scale in nature when they do occur, a more likely outcome is that small-scale, targeted protests or strikes could take place in 2023. Reflecting this, public sector employees and labour unions held a walkout on 17 March 2023, to protest a new local government performance management system for civil servants. As a result, Fitch gave Aruba a score of 60.0 in the ‘social stability’ subcomponent of its STPRI, the lowest of its STPRI subcomponents.
• Challenging conditions for households are likely to dent popular support for the MEP. While opinion polling data is largely not available for Aruba, the MEP’s position in parliament is already fairly weak.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions has revised its forecast for Mexican real GDP growth in 2023, higher from 1.1% to 1.8%, which will come in the wake of a 3.1% expansion in 2022. The updated projections follow a string of stronger-than-expected data points in recent months, with the economy having ended 2022 on a better footing than anticipated.
• The economy grew by a solid 0.5% q-o-q in Q422, driven by a surge in fixed investment linked to the ‘near-shoring’ effect, given Mexico’s proximity to the USA and a pick-up in public sector capital expenditure.
• It is suspected that this strength will persist through much of H123 before activity eases sharply below trend in the second half of 2023 into 2024 as the US is expected to fall into recession.
• Notably, growth was underpinned by the ongoing boost from the US economy as Mexico has remained a key beneficiary of the US’ attempts to reduce its reliance on imports from Mainland China.
• Additionally, with the government racing to finish several flagship infrastructure projects ahead of the presidential elections planned for June 2024; the Mexican economy ended last year on a solid footing.
• Risks to Fitch’s forecasts are broadly balanced and largely hinge on the trajectory of US economic growth. In the event that the US avoids a recession, it is quite likely that the slowdown pencilled in for Mexico will fail to materialize as external demand and remittance flows remain robust.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Crude prices moved in a narrow range in early Asian trade on Tuesday after rallying in the previous session, with oil markets focused on developments in the banking crisis as well as on supply concerns and indications of strengthening demand.
• Prices rose in the previous session after Turkey stopped pumping crude from Kurdistan via a pipeline following an arbitration decision that confirmed Baghdad's consent was needed to ship the oil. Turkey halted the pumping of Iraqi crude from the pipeline after Iraq won an arbitration case in which it said Turkey had violated a joint agreement by allowing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to export oil to Ceyhan without Baghdad's consent. Oil firms operating in the region have been left in limbo as they await the outcome of ongoing discussions between Ankara, Baghdad, and the KRG to find a way to resume exports.
• Monday's announcement that First Citizens BancShares Inc will acquire deposits and loans of failed Silicon Valley Bank spurred optimism about the condition of the banking sector that has roiled financial markets. U.S. authorities are also reportedly in early deliberations about expanding emergency lending facilities.
• Oil prices also drew support from indications of strong Chinese demand. China's crude oil imports are expected to rise 6.2% in 2023 from last year's level to 540 million tonnes, according to an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp on Monday.

(Source: Reuters)

• Stress in the banking sector is being closely monitored for its potential to trigger a credit crunch, a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said on Sunday, as a European Central Bank official also flagged a possible tightening in lending.
• Authorities around the world are on high alert for the fallout from recent turmoil at banks following the collapse in the United States of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank and the rescue takeover a week ago of Credit Suisse.
• Last week ended with indicators of financial market stress flashing. The euro fell against the dollar, eurozone government bond yields sank and the costs of insuring against bank defaults surged despite assurances from policymakers.
• In the latest effort to calm investors, the U.S. Treasury said on Friday that the Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed that the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient".
• "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. That credit crunch would then slow down the economy. This is something we are monitoring very, very closely," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday on the CBS show "Face the Nation."
• Meanwhile, in Europe, the ECB believes that recent banking sector turmoil may result in lower growth and inflation rates, its vice president Luis de Guindos said.
• After the Swiss government engineered the rescue takeover of Credit Suisse by Zurich-based rival UBS, Germany's Deutsche Bank moved into the investor spotlight. Shares in Germany's largest bank fell 8.5% on Friday and the cost of insuring its bonds against the risk of default jumped sharply and the index of top European bank shares fell.
• The sudden spike in tensions for banks has raised questions about whether major central banks will continue to pursue aggressive interest rate hikes to try to bring down inflation and prompted some to speculate on when rates will start to fall.

(Source: Reuters)

• Over the next two years, Jamaica is likely to attain debt levels lower than at any time in the last 50 years, says Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke. The Minister was closing the 2023/24 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives on Tuesday (March 21). “We have to keep on the trajectory to get there, but if we keep on it, we are likely to get to a point where debt levels are lower than any point in the last 50 years,” Dr. Clarke said.
• The Minister noted that the 30-year journey of the Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC) and the longer arc of high debt over a 50-year period have taught the country a lesson that “it is easy to put debt on and very hard to take it off,” adding that a “single policy can add mountains of debt”.
• “What that does is strangle the chances of generations, as servicing interest on top of interest over half a century has robbed generations of opportunities for a better life. And high debt has made economic crises worse, economic shocks more severe, and has reduced the fiscal space and flexibility needed to respond to economic shocks,” Dr. Clarke stated.
• The Minister noted that this had forced Jamaica into lengthy decades-long periods of economic recovery that have impeded the country’s social, economic and national development.
• FINSAC, is an entity that was established by the Jamaican government to address the financial sector crisis in the 1990s.
• Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP is anticipated to end FY 2022/23 at 79.7% and fall further to 74.2% in FY2023/24. This paves the way to achieve the debt target of 60% of GDP by end-FY 2027/28.

(Sources: JIS News and Ministry of Finance)

• Jamaica Producers Group Limited announced that it has acquired 100% of the shares of The Juicy Group NV and HPP Belgium NV. JP operates as a market leader in Europe in the business of fresh juice and is the owner of A.L. Hoogesteger Fresh Specialist B.V. in the Netherlands and is the major shareholder of Co Beverage Lab S.L. in Barcelona, Spain.
• With this acquisition, JP strengthened its position in the European market for freshly squeezed juices and smoothies. The Group now has production facilities and commercial offices in Zwanenburg (The Netherlands), Binche (Belgium), and Barcelona (Spain). From these three state-of-the-art production locations, each with its own specialization and core customers, the JP juice group will offer a wide range of cold-pressed fresh juices and smoothies in common packaging forms and make use of advanced ultra-fresh and High-Pressure Processing technology in all its facilities.
• "We are delighted to add The Juicy Group and HPP Belgium NV to our Pan European juice group," said Jeffrey Hall, Chief Executive Officer of JP. "This acquisition furthers our strategic objective of being a Pan-European leader in the fresh juice business. It allows us to expand our production capacity, drive innovation and serve our core customers even better. We congratulate the JP team in Europe for delivering on this project for the wider Group."
• The acquisition of The Juicy Group NV and HPP Belgium NV was completed on March 21, 2023, and will form part of the assets that will be transferred to the Pan Jamaica Group as part of the amalgamation agreement between PanJam Investment Limited (‘PanJam’) and JP, which will see JP transferring its core businesses to PanJam in exchange for a 34.5% investment in PanJam. The amalgamation is on schedule for completion in the second quarter of 2023.

(Source: JSE)

• Brazil's central bank cited rising inflation expectations as it kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive policy meeting on Wednesday, March 22, drawing concern from the government and weakening bets of imminent monetary easing.
• The bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom, maintained its Selic benchmark interest rate at 13.75%. The decision, which defied intense pressure from the new government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to reduce borrowing costs, matched the expectations of all 30 respondents in a Reuters poll.
• "Taking into account the uncertainty of the scenarios, the committee remains vigilant, assessing if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a long period will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation," policymakers wrote in their policy statement.
• However, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad criticized the statement, saying it was "very concerning" and that the central bank's next decision could put the country's fiscal position "at risk."
• Haddad also said Brazil's inflation is more controlled than that of other developing countries and that inflation expectations could rapidly be reduced in light of new events.
• To date, inflation has cooled to 5.6% in the 12 months through February, but it is still far above this year's 3.25% official target. Meanwhile, the central bank's inflation expectations have risen to 5.8% for 2023 and 3.6% for 2024. With this in mind, the Committee emphasizes that it will continue with its approach until the disinflationary process consolidates and inflation expectations anchor around its targets.

(Source: Reuters)

• In its last policy meeting on February 28, the Banco Central de la Republica Dominicana (BCRD) decided to continue holding rates at 8.50%, in line with Fitch’s expectations.
• The central bank’s monetary board cited the broad decline in international prices for commodities like oil and food, as well as primary materials necessary for manufacturing. This easing price growth has been underpinned by government subsidies for gasoline, utilities, and food items, as well as slowing household consumption.
• Additionally, both headline and core inflation have shown a sustained decline since Q3 2022 towards the central bank’s inflation target range of 4.0% (+/- 1.0%). Despite pausing at a time when markets were pricing in a much more aggressive path for interest rates in developed markets, the Dominican peso has held up reasonably well.
• Therefore, Fitch expects that headline inflation will fall from an average of 8.8% y-o-y in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023, descending to 4.9% in 2024; and will give the BCRD scope to remain in pause mode.
• Looking forward, the central bank will likely start cutting rates in Q3 2023, setting the foundation for Fitch’s interest rate forecast of 7.50% by end-2023. However, the DR’s economy will see 3.8% GDP growth in 2023, far below the pre-pandemic average of 6.1% between 2015 and 2019, signalling that the previous elevated inflation rates have had the intended effect on domestic demand.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• China will make up a sizeable portion of the world’s demand recovery for oil as the global economy braces itself for a slowdown in the wake of interest rate hikes, Wood Mackenzie said. The research firm said in a Thursday report that it views China’s reopening as the “single biggest demand driver” for a recovery in oil demand this year — it expects the country will make up roughly 40% of the world’s recovery in demand for the commodity.
• “A return to normal mobility in China is the single biggest demand driver, accounting for 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) of the 2.6 million b/d increase this year,” a team of analysts led by vice president Massimo Di Odoardo said in the report, laying out its base case scenario. That means 38.5% of global oil demand recovery would come from China.
• While Wood Mackenzie says private consumption will be the leading factor for a surge in China’s oil demand, it sees an upside to its base case scenario if economic growth were to be industry-led instead.
• According to the Chinese government’s latest work report, they have taken a very cautious approach to its growth prospects for this year. They have set a conservative GDP of 5%. It is important to note that China has a history of outpacing their government forecasts – in 12 of the past 18 years growth has exceeded the official target.
• Analysts at Oxford Economics, however, are of the view that government measures would have the opposite effect. They expect that Beijing’s focus on reining in local government debt problems will constrain infrastructure spending and, by extension, demand for commodities.

(Source: CNBC)