• Oil was steady near the highest close since October 2018 after an industry report pointed to a further decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, adding to signs of a rapidly tightening global market. 
• Futures in New York traded near $75 a barrel after rising 1.6% on Tuesday. The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories slid by more than 4 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. That would be an eighth straight weekly draw, the longest run of declines since January 2018, if confirmed by government figures later on Wednesday. 
• Some uncertainty looms over the market, however. Indonesia posted a record number of new virus cases, while Sydney extended a lockdown as the delta variant continues to sweep the globe. The resurgence, as well as the OPEC+ impasse on raising crude production have clouded the short-term outlook. 
• Still, oil has rallied more than 50% this year as the vaccine rollout lifts demand in major economies such as the U.S., and the International Energy Agency is warning that the market will tighten significantly if OPEC+ doesn’t resolve its standoff and boost production. Talks broke down last week and it’s looking increasingly likely that the alliance won’t add more supply in August as members lock in supply volumes to customers next month.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Canadian tourism has officially returned to Jamaica. The island welcomed back the first Air Canada flight following a six-month hiatus, with Air Canada’s first Dreamliner flight to the country.
• “Canada is the second-largest source market for Jamaica and the return of Canadian tourism in Jamaica is welcome news for our country’s hotel partners, attractions, transportation providers, hospitality workers, and the thousands of individuals employed in our tourism related industries,” said Edmund Bartlett. 
• “Air Canada is very pleased to resume our passenger service to Jamaica, which we have proudly served for more than 70 years,” said Luis Noriega Benet, General Manager, Latin America and the Caribbean for Air Canada. “There is no doubt many Canadians are looking to travel to Jamaica for a long-postponed sun holiday. As well, there are many people both in Jamaica and Canada who are eager to visit with friends and family members they have not been able to see since the pandemic began.” 
• The resumption of Canadian flights to Jamaica will support the expected H2 2021 recovery in the tourism sector. However, it is possible that Air Canada could cancel flights to Jamaica once more if cases continue to rise locally.

(Source: Carib Journal & NCBCM Research)

• The entertainment sector will be monitored over the coming weeks to ensure compliance with the COVID-19 protocols governing the operation of the industry. Speaking at a special meeting of the Trelawny Municipal Corporation on Thursday (July 8), Minister of Local Government and Rural Development, Hon. Desmond McKenzie, said there have been widespread breaches of the Disaster Risk Management Act by industry players since Prime Minister, the Most. Hon.  Andrew Holness, announced special measures for the reopening of the sector. 
• He informed that based on assessments, some 600 illegal parties have been held across the island since the announced measures. He reminded sector players that permits are required to stage entertainment events, noting that it is in their best interest to ensure full compliance with the protocols. 
• “So, we are going to ramp up the monitoring over the next two to three weeks, because the Municipal Corporations have been receiving applications and they have been granting approvals. We are going to put more boots on the ground and we are going to ensure that the restrictions that were eased based on the Prime Minister’s announcement, that this is not abused by the sector,” he said. 
• He pointed out that the entertainment sector has been one of the hardest hit since March last year, and failure to comply with the prescribed protocols will force the Government to take strong action. “Anything that was announced in Parliament goes up until the 10th of August, so what it means is that if we are not convinced, then action can be taken, even before the 10th of August,” the Minister said.

(Source: JIS)

• A wave of protests in Cuba fueled by economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic serve as the most open sign of discontent with the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) government in decades and suggest a rise in social stability risks. 
• Minimal growth is expected in Cuba this year due to US sanctions on travel and remittances and a severe spike in COVID-19, which is preventing a recovery in tourism and day-to-day commerce. 
• Additionally, shortages of hard currency amid rising global commodity prices have caused imports to sharply contract, generating shortages of food, electricity and other basic goods, while the unification of Cuba’s dual currency system in January has generated extremely high inflation. 
• Fitch Solutions expects the government to respond to the political situation with repression of demonstrators and potentially minor concessions aimed at taking the momentum out of the protests. 
• Further, while protests could continue to grow in size, Fitch believes the PCC’s extensive security apparatus and the relatively disorganized opposition limit the risks to the party’s hold on power.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• El Salvador’s economic recovery will boost government revenues, narrowing the country’s fiscal deficit, which widened to 10.1% of GDP in 2020, in the quarters ahead. 
• The country’s budget deficit in 2020 was the largest on record and one of the widest in Latin America, behind only Brazil and Bolivia. Public health spending pushed up government expenditures significantly, while a 7.9% contraction of real GDP severely undermined government receipts. 
• The deficit in 2020 was substantially larger than the average 3.0% shortfall from 2015 to 2019, and the primary balance flipped to -5.8%, the first deficit since 2016. 
• Revenue prints have surprised to the upside in the year through May and, as a result, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 and 2022 fiscal deficit forecasts to 6.3% of GDP and 3.9% respectively, from 7.2% and 4.9% previously. 
• The agency forecasts that as deficits persist total public debt will climb to 98.7% of GDP by end-2021, from 73.6% in 2019, though it has not factored a potential IMF programme into this forecast.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• China’s V-shaped economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic is slowing, sending a warning to the rest of world about how durable their own recoveries will prove to be. 
• The changing outlook was underscored Friday when the People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash most banks must hold in reserve in order to boost lending. While the PBOC said the move isn’t a renewed stimulus push, the breadth of the 50 basis-point cut to most banks reserve ratio requirement came as a surprise. 
• Data on Thursday is expected to show growth eased in the second quarter to 8% from the record gain of 18.3% in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. Key readings of retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment are all set to moderate too. 
• Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in Venice on Saturday signaled alarm over threats that could derail a fragile global recovery, saying new variants of the coronavirus and an uneven pace of vaccination could undermine a brightening outlook for the world economy. China’s state media also cited several analysts Monday saying domestic growth will slow in the second half because of an uncertain global recovery.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• US President Joe Biden’s efforts to promote multilateralism on the world stage will continue, at least until the November 2022 US mid-term elections. 
• Biden’s actions as president thus far suggest that he is positioning the US to bolster the ‘liberal international order’ through increased multilateralism on issues such as trade, security, and tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. 
• Biden is also seeking a renewed nuclear deal with Iran. Biden’s amicable face-to-face meetings with the leaders of the G7 nations, NATO, and EU in mid-June signaled his desire to pursue a multilateral approach. 
• However, the forces of de-globalization have been strengthened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the US-China rivalry, which threaten to bifurcate parts of the global economy. 
• US allies that have welcomed a return to multilateralism will still need to be mindful that the assertive unilateralism of the Trump era could return after the 2024 US presidential elections.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Aided by the recovery in the local stock market,  Mayberry Jamaican Equities reported earnings of $406.66Mn (EPS: $0.34) for the six months ending June 2021, a significant improvement over the $1.15Bn net loss in H1 2020. 
• Operating income totaled $573.82Mn, relative to the -$1.10Bn loss in 2020 as the stock market grew by +9.0% during the period, relative to the 26.1% contraction recorded in 2021 due to COVID-19 induced sell-off. The company also recorded $496.43Mn in unrealized gains on investments, compared to the $1.25Bn loss incurred in 2020. 
• Investor sentiment improved during the 2021 period as the government relaxed restrictions, and a number of companies on the stock market saw improved earnings, which received positive reactions from investors. 
• MJE stock price has appreciated by 12.9% since the start of the year and closed trading at $9.01 on July 08, 2021. The last reported net asset value per share for period ending June 30, 2021 was $12.42, which means that the fund currently trades at a 37.8% discount to NAVPS.

(Source: Company Financials

• Credit growth in Mexico’s banking sector is forecast to reach 6.4% at end-2021 on the back of an economic rebound, though rising interest rates will place a ceiling on loan demand. 
• Total loans spiked in Q220 alongside the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising from MXN5.40Tn in January 2020 to a peak of MXN5.84Tn in April. However, this increase reflected the use of credit lines to meet immediate liquidity needs, as well as currency effects, which increased the value of the sector’s foreign currency loans in MXN terms. 
• Higher asset growth combined with a steady improvement across a range of indicators such as leverage and non-performing loans suggests the banking sector will remain stable moving forward. 
• Fitch Solutions maintains its constructive long-term outlook on the sector, given Mexico’s improving economic outlook and relatively low levels of banking sector penetration. 
• This outlook augurs well for the interest income and general profitability of banking and non-banking financial corporates such as Banorte, Alpha Holdings, and Unifin Financiera.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions is broadly neutral on Latin America FX in the short term as it expects that the bearish impact of less favourable commodity prices will negate the bullish factor of increasing hawkishness among the region's central banks.  
• In the longer term, it is expected that the region's major currencies will largely depreciate against the US dollar, particularly as the US Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy and near-term bullish tailwinds begin to fade. 
• While the agency maintains an extremely bearish view on the Argentine peso in the short- and long-term due to persistent inflation, the Colombian peso, Mexican peso and Peruvian sol are likely to appreciate from spot prices in H221.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)