• Medical Disposables & Supplies Limited (MDS) has advised that the Company was appointed as the distributor for the following product lines: Simply and Benjamin’s Cosmetics Jamaica Black Castor Oil (JBCO). 
• Both Simply and JBCO are local brands. The Simply brand is a line of everyday essential products, manufactured in Jamaica, that fall within the categories of personal care, home remedies and flavourings. These include items such as Rubbing Alcohol, Olive Oil and Vanilla, etc. The JBCO personal care range of products are made with authentic Jamaican Black Castor Oil and other natural oils which promote healthy hair and skin. This includes JBCO Shampoo, Conditioner, Beard Oil, Beard Wax and Oils. 
• The addition of this distribution arrangement bodes well for the company’s thrust to grow revenues and increase its bottom-line.

(Source: JSE)

• While Trinidad and Tobago's expected fiscal consolidation and its sizable government assets will continue to support the investment-grade rating of 'BBB-‘, on July 27, 2021, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago to negative from stable. 
• The negative outlook incorporates the risks that poor economic performance and only modest GDP growth prospects prevent Trinidad and Tobago from recovering the economic resilience lost in recent years, as measured by GDP per capita. 
• The ratings could be lowered over the next two years if S&P believes that GDP growth is insufficient to recover the economic resilience, as measured by GDP per capita, that was lost following five years of falling per capita income. 
• There could also be a downward revision if the external debt position or the government’s debt burden deteriorates beyond expectations, or if the agency believes that the government's policy choices have weakened support for long-term sustainable public finances or balanced economic growth. 
• On the other hand, outlook could be revised to stable during the next 12-24 months if strong economic performance and favourable long-term GDP growth prospects help stabilize the recent erosion of the sovereign's financial profile. 
• A more resilient and prosperous economy, along with improved fiscal outcomes that stabilize the rise in the government's debt burden and ease external pressures, could also lead to a stable outlook.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• The Bahamian aviation industry was yesterday said to have been thrown “a curve ball” by the government’s tightening of COVID restrictions having regained just 40-50% of pre-pandemic business. 
• Anthony K Hamilton, Southern Air’s director of administration, and president of the Bahamas Association of Air Transport Operators, told Tribune Business that the industry will have “to roll with the punches” after the government reintroduced the PCR test requirement for all non-vaccinated travellers leaving New Providence, Grand Bahama and Eleuthera/Harbour Island. 
• He said the measures, brought in to counter the latest spike in COVID-19 cases that is threatening to overwhelm the public health system, will “certainly have an impact” on domestic aviation operators and the wider industry through “minimizing to some degree the traffic potential”. 
• The reintroduction of the COVID-19 PCR test requirement will raise travel costs, and the associated bureaucracy and red tape, for non-vaccinated passengers and may discourage them from travelling. Tribune Business yesterday received a video, said to have been filmed in Exuma at 10.35am yesterday, of around 30-40 persons sitting on a hillside in Exuma waiting to receive a COVID test so they can travel.

(Source: The Tribune)

• July 2021’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) readings indicate that private sector activity lost further momentum in the US, UK and Japan, but not in the Eurozone.
• Despite remaining high by historical standards, the flash composite PMI for the US and the UK fell for a third consecutive month in July, dropping to 59.7 and 57.7 respectively, from 63.7 and 62.2 in June. Supply constraints (both labour and materials), rising infections and subdued customer demand were reported by US and UK businesses as the main factors weighing on private sector activity. Japan’s flash composite PMI fell further below the 50-mark that separate expansion from contraction, a sign that the economic recovery has lost further traction.
• By contrast, the indicator for the Eurozone rose to its highest level since July 2000, coming in at 60.6, an indication that growth may not have peaked yet although it is expected to in the coming months, especially if the resurgence of COVID-19 cases prompts governments to tighten mobility restrictions to stem the spread of the Delta variant.  

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• U.S. consumer confidence improved for a sixth straight month in July to a fresh pandemic high as Americans grew more optimistic about current business and labour market conditions. The Conference Board’s index rose to 129.1 from a revised 128.9 reading in June, according to the group’s report Tuesday. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had called for a decline to 123.9. 
• The survey indicated that inflation expectations eased slightly though it remained elevated while buying plans strengthened. 
• The confidence gauge is nearing pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers are growing more upbeat as economic activity resumes. Even so, concerns about rising consumer prices and the delta variant have climbed in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the coming months. 
• The Conference Board’s gauge of current conditions rose to 160.3, also a fresh pandemic high. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” increased to a 21-year high. Consumers’ view of present business conditions also improved slightly. Economic expectations were little changed. 
• “Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting economic growth in Q3 is off to a strong start,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. 
• Consumers said they were more likely to purchase cars, homes and major appliances in the next six months. The share of consumers who plan to buy appliances was at the highest level since the end of 2017.The report precedes the government’s first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is forecast to show that personal consumption grew an annualized 10.5%.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, says that the construction sector is experiencing a major boom, which is a clear sign of economic recovery. “We are now seeing a very strong resurgence in building and construction. During the pandemic it increased and it is a good sign for the country that persons are taking the financial risk to construct,” he said. 
• In June, the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) reported that growth in the construction sector was being driven by housing starts, aided by higher disbursement of mortgages, and while the economy contracted by 5.7% for the January to March quarter, the industry grew by 12.6%. Data from the PIOJ show a 32.8% increase in sales for construction inputs, while sales of wholesale construction materials, hardware, and plumbing input went up 65.2%, and retail sales of paint and glass saw a 7.4% increase. 
• Holness further stated that “People would have to have great confidence, not only in the short-term but in the long-term direction of the country. So, as a government, we take heart that investors, who are very important economic beings, see a bright future in the short- and long-terms,”

(Source: JIS)

• Jamaica's total public debt burden is expected to rise relative to GDP in the short term due to falling revenue and emergency pandemic spending. However, by FY2021/22 Fitch Solutions forecasts that Jamaica's debt will resume its pre-COVID downward trajectory, falling to 58.8% of GDP by 2030. 
• After defaulting on its sovereign debt in 2010 and 2013, Jamaica has significantly improved its fiscal position via IMF-prescribed fiscal consolidation measures. In November 2019, the government exited its second IMF programme, with debt on a steady downward trajectory. 
• The government cut expenditure from 36.6% of GDP in FY2009/10 to 29.0% in FY2019/20, lifting the budget balance from -10.5% of GDP to 0.9% over the same period. However, the COVID-19 pandemic reversed much of Jamaica's gains, as collapsing revenue and increased public health expenditure resulted in the primary surplus shrinking from 7.3% of GDP in FY2019/20 to an estimated 1.7% of GDP in FY2020/21. 
• The GOJ will continue to decrease its share of the country's total economy over the coming years as a result of ongoing fiscal consolidation. Government final consumption as a percentage of GDP fell from 16.3% in 2012 to 13.5% in 2018. It is expected that further restraint on spending by the Jamaican government will see this figure remain around 14.0% of GDP over the coming decade, particularly as real GDP growth picks up.

(Source: Fitch Solutions) 

• The Bahamian government has declared new coronavirus health protocols, which would come into effect from 26 July 2021. A daily curfew will be imposed from 10 pm to 5 am for the New Providence, Grand Bahama and North and South Eleuthera, Harbour islands.  
• The decision was taken to control the spread of the deadly COVID-19 mutant. As per the new health protocols, RT PCR testing will now be needed for travelers who are not fully vaccinated against the COVID-19 mutant for travel from New Providence, Grand Bahama and North and South Eleuthera, including Harbour Island. 
• The protocol includes social gathering limit of 5 people, provided that all persons are fully vaccinated. In addition, the government has further informed the citizens to note that the operation of a bar, night club & any cultural or entertainment facility remains prohibited. 
• The reintroduction of strict containment measures will further dampen the Bahamas’ growth prospects over the near term as it will weigh on revenues and tourism activity.

(Source: West Indies and Caribbean news & NCBCM Research)

• President Irfaan Ali will implement expansionary fiscal policies in Guyana over the coming quarters to finance development projects and raise household incomes. Ali, who took office in August 2020, has pledged to raise spending as his centre-left People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP) government holds a one-seat majority in the National Assembly. 
• It is anticipated that the Ali government will sustain higher spending in the coming years, capitalizing on the country’s offshore oil boom and its transformational impact on public revenues. The 2021 budget raises total expenditures by 16.1% and concentrates much of the spending increases on transfer payments to low-income Guyanese households and those adversely impacted by the pandemic. 
• Due to efforts to sustain social stability, Fitch Solutions maintained Guyana’s score of 54.4 in its Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI), putting the country in 24th position among 26 Caribbean economies in the STPRI. 
• However, the political environment between the PPP and opposition A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) will remain tense, particularly as the PPP pushes to remove electoral officials linked to allegations of fraud during the March 2020 election. 

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The real yield on U.S. 10-year debt fell to a record low as concerns mounted over the outlook for economic growth. The rate, which strips out inflation, fell almost six basis points to minus -1.269%. The move was compounded by a lack of trading liquidity, with the 10-year breakeven rate - a market proxy for the average annual rate of consumer prices over the next decade edging higher at 2.36%. 
• This points to souring investor sentiment amid the rapid spread of the delta variant that threatens to derail the economic recovery and it comes as investors piled into haven assets after a surprise hit to Germany’s business confidence. 
• “We are in a regime of growth deceleration in the U.S, as the recovery becomes more mature and broad based, at the same time as inflationary pressures build,” said Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho International Plc. 
• S. stocks started the week on shaky ground, with the S&P 500 Index swinging between gains and losses as investors assessed the outlook for growth in a week full of corporate earnings. 
• Market jitters are also building ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, when officials will discuss the outlook for further monetary stimulus. Traders are slashing forecasts for policy tightening into the meeting, even after inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in over a decade last month on an annual basis. 
• Real yields could touch new lows if the Fed remains committed to keeping monetary policy unchanged, Michael Kushma, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “The more they push out their forward guidance of when they’re going to and how fast they’re going to raise rates, the more yields can stay low and, if inflation stays high, real yields can continue to remain very low”.

(Source: Bloomberg)