• Moody's Investors Service, has changed the outlook on the Government of Panama's ratings to negative from stable. Moody's has affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at Baa1, and Panama's senior unsecured shelf ratings at Baa1.
• The key driver for the change in outlook to negative is the consideration that, absent meaningful fiscal consolidation and a sustained economic recovery, the sharp deterioration in fiscal and debt metrics will continue to undermine Panama's credit profile in the coming years.
• A continued rise in the government's debt and interest burdens would bring Panama's fiscal metrics in line with Baa peer medians, materially eroding a credit strength that supported the upgrade of Panama's ratings to Baa1 in 2019.
• The Baa1 rating incorporates the sovereign's still-present underlying credit strengths, including trend growth in excess of 4%, which has been above that reported by most Baa-rated peers. Additionally, Panama's ability to access market funding at relatively low borrowing costs keeps government liquidity and refinancing risks contained.

(Source: Moody’s Investors Service)

• Fitch Solutions believes the rapid appreciation of the Haitian gourde over recent weeks will create significant headwinds to exports, private consumption, and government revenues over the coming months.
• While the factors underpinning the gourde's rise are not entirely clear, the government is most likely supporting the currency in an attempt to control elevated inflation.
• The core view is that the gourde is unsustainable at current spot rates, although the government could choose to take a more active role in managing the exchange rate to sustain its value over the coming months.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Russia’s economy could benefit by up to $30Bn this year from Russians spending their roubles at home rather than on foreign holidays due to travel restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, economists say.
• The estimates are a rare piece of good news for an economy battered by low global oil prices as well as coronavirus lockdowns. Russia ran a budget deficit of around $23Bn in the first nine months of this year.
• Like many other countries, Russia also saw foreign tourists stay away in droves in 2020. But it sent far fewer travelers overseas than usual after closing its borders in March. The outflow in some cases fell by as much as 80%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits declined more than expected last week, though they remain extremely high indicating a slowdown in the labor market and broader economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades.
• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 787,000 for the week ended Oct. 17, compared to 842,000 in the prior week, the Labour Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 860,000 applications in the latest week.
• Economists are predicting claims will remain elevated amid a resurgence in new coronavirus cases around the country, which they say could lead to state and local government restrictions or more people shunning establishments like restaurants and bars.

(Source: Reuters)

• Proven Investments Limited (PROVEN) has advised that the Board of Directors of the Company has authorized the Company to take formal steps to obtain all necessary regulatory approvals to launch an invitation to the public in Jamaica for the subscription of an additional block of ordinary shares.
• These New Ordinary Shares would rank pari passau upon the issue in all respects with the existing ordinary shares in the capital of the Company, and be made available for subscription as aforesaid on such terms and conditions as shall be approved by the directors of the Company.
• Details of the amount of New Ordinary Shares to be made available for subscription upon such regulatory approvals being granted and the applicable terms and conditions of the invitation will be advised once the directors of the Company have approved them, PROVEN further stated.

(Source: JSE)

• Costa Rica is expected to run historic deficits of 9.5% of GDP in 2020 and 8.6% in 2021 as the Covid-19 pandemic causes a significant decline in public intakes.
• President Carlos Alvarado’s ongoing commitment to fiscal austerity will restrict countercyclical government spending in the coming quarters, which will likely slow the country’s economic recovery and limit revenue growth in the medium term.
• Additionally, public debt is projected to reach 76.0% of GDP in 2020 and 78.2% in 2021, which underpins the expectation that the government will pursue structural reforms despite the public backlash to consolidation measures.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Exports of mined metals in the Dominican Republic reached US$1.3Bn as of August 2020, according to data released by the Dominican Association of Exporters (Adoexpo).
• It says that the FOB value of the gold product, including platinum, raw, semi-worked, or powder gold was US$1.1 for a growth of 12%; Ferroalloys reached US$223.1Mn, or 8% lower, compared to the period January-August 2019.
• “Copper ores and their concentrates between January-August 2020 registered a negative figure of US$10.6Mn, or 48% less than last year in the same period.” Adoexpo data indicate that zinc ores and their concentrates reached US$1.9Mn, down 79% compared to January-August 2019.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said forecasts for the global economy were “somewhat less dire” as wealthy countries and China rebounded more quickly than expected from coronavirus lockdowns but warned that the outlook was worsening for many emerging markets.
• The IMF forecast a 2020 global contraction of 4.4% in its latest World Economic Outlook, an improvement over a 5.2% contraction predicted in June when business closures reached their peak. It is still the worst economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression, the Fund said.
• The global economy will return to growth of 5.2% in 2021, the IMF said, but the rebound will be slightly weaker than forecast in June, partly due to the extreme difficulties for many emerging markets and slowing reopening momentum as the virus continues to spread.

(Source: Reuters)

• China is cementing its status as the world’s dominant trading nation, confounding warnings that a once in a century pandemic combined with simmering tensions with the U.S. would derail that status.
• Surging global demand for everything from hazmat suits to work-from-home technology has allowed China, which contained the virus months ago, to capture record market share of global exports by quickly reopening its factories while the rest of the world grappled with lockdowns. It’s a striking reversal from the first two months of the year when China’s exports contracted by 17.1%.
• It’s also an outcome that underscores the nation’s enduring role in manufacturing even amid simmering tensions with the U.S. that have fueled talk of shifting supply chains. For all the tariffs levied by the Trump administration, monthly sales to the U.S. remain robust.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Despite the misfortune of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Jamaica is scaling up its expenditure budget for 2020/21 by $15.7 billion.
• Minister of Finance and the Public Service Dr. Nigel Clarke yesterday made the announcement while opening debate on the second supplementary estimates in the House of Representatives, which is being held temporarily at the Jamaica Conference Centre.
• The budget, which was trimmed from the original $853.5 billion to $838.7 billion following the first supplementary estimate, now stands at $853.7 billion.
• He explained that it is for this reason the Government is also increasing the capital expenditure component of the budget by $6 billion, of which $4.6 billion will go towards the South Coast Highway Improvement Project.

(Source: Bloomberg)