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Boost for Development Minerals Industry Published: 07 October 2020

  • The development minerals sector has received another boost from the European Union (EU)-funded Development Minerals Programme with the handover of a Training Reference Resource, produced for the industry.
  • The training resource document is designed to boost the capacity of the sector to establish growth and build resilience into operations.
  • There are special sections for risk management and (COVID-19) recovery and resilience.
  • Rainford said the Ministry recommends the training resource to investors in the industry, and that they should fully utilize it for growth.

(Source: JIS)

IMF raises Brazil 2020 GDP forecast to -5.8% from -9.1% Published: 07 October 2020

  • The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised up its 2020 economic outlook for Brazil, but warned that risks remain “exceptionally high and multifaceted,” and government debt is on course to end the year around 100% of gross domestic product.
  • The IMF now expects Latin America’s largest economy to shrink by 5.8% this year, much less than the 9.1% contraction it had previously estimated, and predicts a “partial” recovery and 2.8% growth next year.
  • In a document outlining the preliminary findings from a recent staff visit to Brazil, the IMF said “significant” downside risks include a second wave of the pandemic, “long-term scarring” from a long recession, and confidence shocks given Brazil’s huge public debt.

(Source: Reuters)

Mexico remittances hit 2nd highest level on record in August Published: 07 October 2020

  • Mexico saw remittances, major support for the economy and in particular low-income families, jump in August to their second-highest level on record to continue their strong 2020 run, according to the central bank.
  • Remittances to Mexico in August were $3.574 billion, a 5.3% rise on the same month last year, the data showed. It hit their highest level since records began in 1995 in March of this year. The third and fourth-best levels were recorded in June and July.
  • Most of Mexico’s remittances are sent by the millions of Mexicans living in the United States and are a pillar of support for Latin America’s second-largest economy, which suffered in the second quarter its deepest slump since the Great Depression.

(Source: Reuters)

U.S. Economy Risks ‘Tragic Scenario’ on Trump’s Stimulus Pullout Published: 07 October 2020

  • The collapse of pre-election U.S. stimulus talks threatens to inflict another wave of economic pain on Americans and curtail a recovery that’s already slowed.
  • President Donald Trump’s decision Tuesday to walk away from talks with Democrats amid differences over the size of stimulus -- even though hours later he appeared to reverse course -- likely ended the chances of a relief package before the Nov. 3 election. Aid might be delayed until January or February, after a new Congress is seated, meaning there could be a period of four or five months without additional support for jobless Americans and small businesses.
  • The decision puts the economic rebound at risk of stalling in the fourth quarter, with activity remaining well below its pre-pandemic level amid the coronavirus’s persistent spread and the wait for a vaccine. It could leave the Federal Reserve under pressure to provide more support.

(Source: Bloomberg)

ECB’s Lagarde Pledges No Premature Removal of Monetary Support Published: 07 October 2020

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pledged not to remove monetary support until the coronavirus crisis is over, reinforcing her message that central banks and fiscal authorities must work together.
  • “Macroeconomic policies in the euro area have acted forcefully, geared toward protecting productive capacity and jobs,” she said in an interview with the Harvard International Review published Wednesday. “We should guard against the premature withdrawal of these support measures.”
  • Most economists expect the central bank to increase stimulus by boosting its 1.35 trillion-euro ($1.6 trillion) bond-buying program before the end of the year. Lagarde spoke a day after she and ECB chief economist Philip Lane called on governments to keep up their support, with the president warning against creating a “cliff-edge” that undoes progress so far.

(Source: Bloomberg)

BOJ Holds Policy Rate Steady At 0.50% Published: 01 October 2020

  • Bank of Jamaica announces its decision to hold the policy interest rate (the rate offered to deposit-taking institutions on overnight placements with BOJ) unchanged at 0.50% per annum.
  • Its current assessment remains consistent with its August projection that inflation will average 4.7% over the next two years and will track within the target range of 4.0% to 6.0%. This forecast was mainly predicated on expectations for some economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as higher energy and agricultural food prices.
  • The economic outlook for Jamaica remains highly uncertain in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic but BOJ will continue to assess incoming data and stands ready to implement other policy measures if the need arises.

(Source: BOJ)

Palace Amusement Closes Palace Cineplex and Palace Multiplex As Pandemic Depresses Performance Published: 01 October 2020

  • Despite the best efforts of management to minimize overheads by way of, inter alia negotiating with landlords, utilizing fewer screens to minimize electricity cost and staff rotation, there are various costs that are unavoidable whether or not the cinemas are operating.
  • Despite its best efforts, attendance at the cinemas continues to be severely impacted by the fluctuation in curfew hours and the spike in community spread of the Coronavirus.
  • Operations at Palace Multiplex were previously negatively impacted by the ZOSO and States of Emergency in St. James and the pandemic has far worsened the situation. Palace Cineplex has also suffered especially grave repercussions with attendance at zero on some occasions.

(Source: JSE)

LatAm Sovereign YTD International Bond Issuance Exceeds 2019 Total Published: 01 October 2020

  • Latin American sovereigns have tapped international bond markets at a faster pace and in greater amounts in 2020 than in 2019 to help meet higher funding needs, supported by highly expansionary monetary policy settings at the world's major central banks.
  • Reliable international market access limits sovereigns' liquidity risk and supports financing flexibility, although ramping up hard currency borrowing increases the sensitivity of debt ratios to exchange rates.
  • External issuance by Latin American sovereigns of US$42.5Bn year-to-date already exceeds last year's total of US$34.5Bn and is higher than the 2015-2019 annual average of about US$30Bn, excluding Argentina. 2020 volumes do not include bonds issued in distressed debt exchanges.

(Source: Fitch Solution)

Dom Rep CB Reserves Above $10Bn Mark Again – Policy Rate Decision Published: 01 October 2020

  • Dom Rep’s Central Bank (CB) reported that international reserves reached $10.5Bn as of September 28 (13.3% of GDP) following the successful sale of global bonds last week. The CB highlighted that it was the largest ever bond transaction executed by a Central American country.
  • The CB argued that the recovery in economic activity is being supported by an expansive monetary policy stance. Since late March, the CB has cut the policy rate by 150 basis points (bps) to 3% and injected liquidity for some DOP190Bn (4% of GDP) through a variety of stimulus measures.
  • The CB also provided liquidity in USD for an estimated $622Mn. DOP lending rates have decreased to 9.8% from 13.3% in March, and domestic credit to the private sector is now expanding at a 10% YoY pace.
  • The CB plans to keep its expansive monetary policy in place during the health emergency and projects that GDP growth will reach its 5% potential growth rate towards the end of 2021.

(Source: Bloomberg)

IMF Pushes For Changes Governing Debt Restructurings Published: 01 October 2020

  • International Monetary Fund officials on Thursday warned that risks of a sovereign debt crisis sparked by the coronavirus pandemic will rise without changes to the international debt architecture, including more transparency for government borrowing.
  • In a blog post and speech, IMF officials called for the G20 debt service suspension initiative to be extended for another 12 months until the end of 2021, and a common restructuring approach across all official bilateral creditors, including China. A new IMF research paper also laid out options for improving debt transparency and restructuring.
  • “A pandemic-induced systemic debt crisis cannot be ruled out,” IMF First Deputy Managing Director Geoffrey Okamoto said in remarks prepared for delivery to a Peterson Institute for International Economics online event. “The longer the problem is postponed, the worse it will become.”

(Source: Reuters)