• Supply constraints thwarting global economic growth could still get worse, keeping inflation elevated longer, even if the current spike in prices is still likely to remain temporary, the world's top central bankers warned on Wednesday. 
• Global inflation has spiked in recent months on a surge in energy prices, and the production bottlenecks are pushing prices even higher, raising fears that the run-up, if it lasts long enough, could seep into expectations and raise the overall profile of inflation. 
• The problem is that central banks, the main authority for controlling prices, have no influence over short-term supply disruptions, so they are likely to be bystanders, waiting for economic anomalies to self-correct without lasting damage. 
• Still, even as policymakers called for heightened attention to inflation, all maintained their long standing view that the spike in inflation would be temporary and price rises would moderate next year, moving back to or below central bank targets.

(Source: Reuters)

• Margaritaville (Turks) Ltd. has reported a significant decline in its earnings from a net profit of US$72,132 in FY 2020 to a loss of US$1.38Mn in FY 2021, on the back of a falloff in revenues. 
• At the close of the financial year ended May 2021, one of the major cruise lines, Carnival cruise, had not resumed activity in Grand Turk, which contributed to a 99.2% decline in revenues. However, as vaccination rates in source markets increase and as cruise ships gradually resume operations, the company’s revenues should begin to improve. 
• The impact of the falloff in revenues on the company’s bottom-line was tempered by a decline in direct, admin and promotional expenses by 97.4%, 70.9% and 100.0%, respectively. The drop in admin expenses was partly due to lower spending on employee benefits such as salaries, wages, medical and related expenses. 
• Margaritaville’s stock price has fallen by 65.4% since the start of the year and closed Tuesday’s trading session at a price of $15.05 per share.

(Source: Margaritaville Financials & NCBCM Research)

• The continued global spread of COVID-19 will delay the rebound of tourism activity in the Bahamas, undermining export and private consumption growth and pushing back the economic recovery into H221 and 2022. 
• As a result, Fitch Solutions has revised down its 2021 real GDP forecast to 1.5%, from 3.1% previously, and have revised up its 2022 forecast to 4.8%, from 3.3% previously. 
• Government stimulus and investment growth will also support activity in the quarters ahead, though there are still downside risks to growth posed by the continued spread of the pandemic.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Cuba is allowing a staggered opening from Friday of restaurants, shopping centres and beaches in provinces that have lowered coronavirus cases even as it battles some of the highest nationwide rates of infection per capita worldwide. 
• The easing of lockdown restrictions coincides with preparations by the cash-strapped Caribbean island nation for its tourist high season, which it hopes will bring much-needed dollars to palliate a dire economic crisis. 
• The government has already announced it will allow more flights and accept COVID-19 vaccination certificates for inbound travelers in lieu of a PCR test from November. "In recent days we have determined the conditions are there to gradually reopen many of these in-person services," said Interior Commerce Minister Betsy Diaz. 
• Health officials said coronavirus infections started falling in September from their peak over the summer months as they raced to vaccinate more than 90% of the population by mid-November with their home-grown COVID-19 vaccines.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Tuesday the government could run out of cash by Oct. 18 unless Congress acts to lift the federal debt limit in advance of the Treasury Department exhausting efforts to preserve resources. 
• "At that point, we expect Treasury would be left with very limited resources that would be depleted quickly," Yellen told lawmakers during a Senate Banking Committee hearing, echoing comments she made in a letter to lawmakers. 
• "It is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date," she said in the letter, one day after Senate Republicans rejected a measure to raise the nation's borrowing limit to pay for previously incurred government spending. 
• The Treasury had already undertaken measures to keep government funds flowing after the debt ceiling was reached over the summer. But those measures will run out in about 20 days, although the exact date could vary.

(Source: Reuters)

• More than a million British workers face an uncertain future this week as the UK becomes the world's first big economy to wind up its COVID-19 jobs support scheme. 
• The programme, which at its peak paid a third of employees to stay at home, cost more than 68 billion pounds ($93 billion) - the most expensive single piece of UK economic support during the pandemic. 
• Other European countries with more tradition of short-time working programmes such as Germany are keeping furlough support longer, at least for harder-hit sectors. 
• But with employers reporting record-high job vacancies and acute shortages of workers such as truck drivers most observers think Britain is right to end its programme on Sept. 30. 
• However, these support programmes have helped to bolster consumer saving and spending in the past year and as such its end could result in a drop in consumer demand and lower than expected recovery in the near term.

(Source: Reuters & NCBCM Research)

• Buoyed by rising revenues, Express Catering Ltd reported a US$1.65Mn year over year increase in net profit to US$565.07K (EPS: US$0.0345), for the first quarter ending August 31, 2021. 
• Revenues grew by 719.3% due to increased operations. The company is now back to 25 of the 27 operating locations following the suspension of all units in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Since the onset of the pandemic there has been several instances of relaxation of the restrictive measures, which has assisted the recovery in the restaurant, tourism and hotel industry. However, the discovery of new strains and the reintroduction of restrictions, has dampened the near term outlook for the sector. 
• The YoY performance was tempered by an increase in direct and administrative expenses as well as finance costs of 679.2%, 110.8% and 64.0%, respectively. 
• Construction work on the revamped post-security food and beverage lounge at the Sangster Airport is projected to commence in September 2021. The first phase will see the relocation of existing brands to designated areas in the new food court. The benefit from this transformation is expected to begin in the winter season commencing December 2021. 
• Express Catering’s stock price has increased 58.9% since the start of the year and closed Monday’s trading session at a price of $5.60 per share.

(Source: Express Catering Financials)

• Minister of Tourism, Edmund Bartlett, has noted that Jamaica remains a safe destination and wants to reassure Jamaica’s tourism interests of this. He highlighted that a key factor is its Tourism Resilience Corridors, which have a low infection rate of less than 1.0%. 
• Jamaica’s tourism product remains strong and is indeed top of mind, despite the challenges. As a result, efforts will be made to therefore, continue to drive the marketing arrangements to minimize any possible fallout. 
• Jamaica’s safety standards and protocols are highly celebrated worldwide and were key to it being able to welcome over 1.0Mn visitors since reopening its borders. Further, efforts have been ramped up to ensure that tourism workers are fully vaccinated, and much success has been achieved from this initiative. 
• The Minister further noted that for one of America’s biggest airlines and a long-standing partner of Jamaica, Southwest Airlines, their flight operations into Montego Bay in coming weeks and months are expected to be very close to 2019 pre-pandemic record levels, signaling increased demand for destination Jamaica by US travellers. 
• With an increase in visitor arrivals and revenue both critical to Jamaica’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery, Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, is currently overseas having key meetings with major investors and sector players. Meetings in Canada will focus on marketing and will include all key partners, such as Air Canada, WestJet, Sunwing, Transat and Swoop. They will also meet with tour operators, tourism investors, trade and mainstream media and key diaspora stakeholders.

(Source: JIS News)

• Fitch Solutions is more upbeat on the Dominican Republic’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as a swift national vaccination campaign and resilient private consumption drive domestic activity. 
• As such, the country’s 2021 growth forecast was revised upward to 8.2%, from 6.0% previously, implying that real GDP will fully regain 2019 levels by the end of the year. A 4.8% expansion is also forecasted for 2022. 
• These upwards revisions imply that Dom Rep’s real GDP will surpass 2019 levels by end-2021 despite a 6.7% contraction in 2020. In the year through July 2021, seasonally adjusted monthly economic output expanded by an average of 14.9% y-o-y, led by a swift rebound in private consumption and exports as the economy reopened. 
• However, the potential for additional economic shocks from COVID-19 or a faster than expected global monetary policy tightening cycle underpin downside risks to the sovereign’s growth in the short-to-medium term.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Brazil's fiscal deficits is expected to narrow over the coming quarters although a volatile political environment will undermine its consolidation efforts. 
• Brazil's deficit is forecasted at 8.7% of GDP in 2021 and 6.4% in 2022, although Fitch Solutions acknowledges uncertainty over these forecasts. It is expected that robust revenue growth and declining expenditures will help narrow the deficit over the coming quarters. 
• In the year through July, revenues rose 41.2% y-o-y and expenditures contracted 15.8%. Economic activity has rebounded at among the swiftest paces in the region, bolstering revenues. The recovery is expected to continue through 2022, albeit at a slower pace (forecasting real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2022). 
• Nonetheless, political weakness is contributing to uncertainty over spending plans and the government's ability to meet mandated spending obligations.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)