• Having successfully secured a $600Mn loan from a consortium of local commercial banks, the Barbados government is seeking to tap into the increasing confidence in its debt instruments since the 2018-2019 debt restructuring exercise. Over the weekend, the Central Bank of Barbados announced it was offering a $250Mn Government of Barbados 20-year Debenture issue.
• The issuance has a grace period of 10 years, followed by 10 years of equal quarterly payments to be made in February, May, August and November.  A total of 40 payments will be made until 2044. The interest rate on this long-term debt instrument is 7.75% and the government is offering it to the public for minimum purchases of $1000.  According to the Central Bank of Barbados, the issue will remain open until the bank advises that it has been fully subscribed.
• The Debenture¹ represents a shifting focus by the Barbados government back to raising capital on the local market. In his mid-year report to the country, Minister of State in the Ministry of Finance Ryan Straughn reported that as of September 30, 2024, Barbados’ total public debt stood at $14.87Mn, or 104.8 per cent of GDP. However, he affirmed the government’s commitment to responsible debt management, including timely debt service payments, which totalled $717.8Mn during the first half of the financial year.
• “Our focus on public sector reform, debt management, and prudent fiscal policies will ensure that Barbados remains on a sustainable fiscal path, whilst continuing to invest in the future of our people and our country,” Straughn said. He highlighted restrained government expenditure, which stood at $1.70Bn, falling short of the forecasted $1.763Bn.
• According to Straughn, the restrained expenditure was mainly due to delays in capital project execution for road repairs and housing developments. Parliament recently approved a $600Mn loan from three local commercial banks as it pursues a debt swap, where it repays higher interest loans with a new loan at a lower interest rate. The loan is being financed by CIBC, Royal Bank and ScotiaBank. CIBC is structuring the 20-year loan.  

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¹Debentures are a type of loan that is not backed by collateral, but instead by the reputation and creditworthiness of the issuer.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Delta Air Lines’ expanded service during the Summer 2025 season is expected to improve Barbados’ connectivity with the U.S. This action follows the airline’s planned service initiation to Barbados on November 23, 2024. Effective December 21 of 2024, Delta will inaugurate a weekly service from New York on Saturdays exclusively and a seven-day-a-week service from Atlanta, Georgia.
• Delta will provide daily non-stop flights from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) to Grantley Adams International Airport starting May 7, 2025, and concluding September 7, 2025. Minister of Tourism and International Transport Ian Gooding-Edghill expressed enthusiasm for the Delta Summer 2025 expanded service.
• At a time when Network Planning for 2025 is advanced, this represents yet another vote of confidence in Barbados as a destination. The additional capacity further bolsters Barbados’ allure as a travel destination, especially amid continued demand from the U.S. market.
• Barbados has been emphasising the development of a comprehensive airlift strategy in recent years, which is essential for the island to maintain its competitiveness in the global tourism market and increase visitor arrivals. Delta’s dedication to expanding its capacity resulted from these strategic discussions, underscoring the significance of government and private sector collaboration in improving Barbados’ tourism offerings.

(Source: Caribbean News Now)

• U.S. manufacturing contracted at a moderate pace in November, with orders growing for the first time in eight months and factories facing significantly lower prices for inputs.
• The improvement reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday tracked similar increases in other sentiment surveys, which have risen on hopes of more business-friendly policies from the incoming Trump administration.
• Still, manufacturing is not out of the woods yet. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore noted that "production execution eased in November, consistent with demand sluggishness and weak backlogs," and that "suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving but some product shortages reappearing." Economists agreed.
• The ISM said its manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 48.4 from 46.5 in October, which was the lowest level since July 2023. A PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy.
• Only three industries, including computer and electronic as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components reported growth. Among the 11 industries reporting contraction were transportation equipment, machinery, miscellaneous manufacturing, chemical products and primary metals.
• Some machinery manufacturers said a slowdown in construction "has created a surplus of finished goods, creating the need for an extra two weeks of shutdown over the Christmas holiday period." Fabricated metal products makers said customers were destocking, adding "the preliminary forecast for 2025 is down significantly."

(Source: Reuters)

• According to industry data released on Tuesday, British retailers reported lacklustre sales in November, affected by the timing of the Black Friday sales, although it still pointed to weakening consumer confidence.
• Sales volumes dropped by 3.3% in the 12 months to November, the weakest reading since April when they fell 4.0%, and below an increase of 0.6% in the year to October, the British Retail Consortium said.
• Last month's decline reflected the fact that this year's data did not include Black Friday sales in late November, which will be reflected in the December numbers, though they were included in last year's comparison.
• Nonetheless, other factors also weighed on consumer spending in November.  Rising energy bills have also weakened consumer confidence and dented non-food spending, which fell 2.1% year-on-year in the three months to November, reflecting a decline in spending on winter clothing.
• Additionally, easing consumer confidence post-summer, and expectations that post-budget inflation and interest rates will stay higher in the coming months also contributed In line with expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.75% later this month after cutting Bank Rates in August and November.

(Source: Reuters)

• Data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed the unemployment rate stood at 3.6% in July 2024, down from 4.2% in April 2024.
• The total number of unemployed individuals amounted to 52,600, down from 62,800 in April, with females making up 52.5% of unemployed individuals. 19,500 of the unemployed persons were youth (aged 15 to 24 years), with females accounting for 10,100 or 51.8%.
• Overall, female and youth unemployment were higher. Female unemployment stood at 4.0% compared to males who had a 3.2% rate of unemployment. However, Youth unemployment was higher at 10.4%, with young adult females having a higher unemployment rate of 11.8% compared to 9.1% for young adult males.
• Of note, the labour force¹ shrank to 1,461,600 persons, from 1,483,100 in April 2024. 775,300 (53.0%) were males, while 686,300 (47.0%) were female. The decline in the labour force reflects a lower participation rate of 67.8%, down slightly from 68.8% in April.
• Regarding employee distribution across occupation groups, the ‘Services and Sales Workers’ segment employed the highest number of individuals at 338,200 or 24.0% of the labour force. The second largest was ‘Skilled Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery Workers’ with 190,500 workers, followed by ‘Elementary Occupations’, with 185,900 workers.
• The ‘Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles’ remains the largest employer, engaging 265,200 or 18.8% of the individuals. The second largest industry group was ‘Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing’, with 201,000 or 13.8% of persons employed.
• The latest unemployment figure beats expectations for unemployment levels to inch up in 2024, given Jamaica’s economic slowdown to a 0.2% YoY growth in Q2 2024 and a subsequent contraction of 2.8% for Q3 2024.
• The unemployment data for April and July, reflects the new labour force series, introduced in January 2024 when unemployment amounted to 5.4%. It represents a break in the series and as such is not comparable with previous survey data. The new series incorporates the latest guidelines from the International Labour Organization (ILO), which resulted in, inter alia, a significant change in the definition of employment and unemployment.

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¹The labour force refers to the sum of those either working (i.e., the employed) or looking for work (i.e., the unemployed)

(Source: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica has launched a project aimed at addressing climate change by creating sustainable jobs, safeguarding workers’ rights, and fostering fair and inclusive growth. The ‘Jamaica Just Transition: Embedding Climate Justice in Regional Policy Framework’ project is considered an important step towards climate justice and sustainable development.
• The two-year initiative, which was unveiled during the Ministry of Labour and Social Security’s Regional Labour Talk Roadshow in St. Ann on Wednesday (November 27), brings together the International Labour Organization (ILO) and local stakeholders to foster collaboration and implement policies to infuse climate action with decent work principles in Jamaica, advancing social justice and sustainable economic development goals.
• At its core, the Just Transition concept aims to address the societal and economic challenges that arise from shifting towards a greener, more sustainable economy.
• The initiative focuses on ensuring that workers, communities and industries most affected by the transition to low-carbon practices are not left behind. This includes providing social protection, improving workers’ rights, creating policies that meet global standards, developing a roadmap for integrating climate action, and more.
• The government envisages that by 2026, Just Transition measures will be integrated into Jamaica’s national climate change policy frameworks, including its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

(Source: JIS)

• The Panama Canal is confident that it will maintain a “solid” performance despite a possible new trade war between the United States and China, resulting from the imposition of tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.
• “In the past, despite trade differences between the United States and China, the performance of the Panama Canal has remained solid,” the administration of the interoceanic waterway said on Thursday.
• Trump announced his intention to implement a 25% surcharge on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products until these countries – which are his main trading partners – stop the arrival of illegal immigration and drugs.
• The Panama Canal is a major waterway through which about 3% of world trade passes. Its main customer is the United States, which accounts for two-thirds of the tonnage that passes through it, followed far behind by China and Japan.
• In fiscal year 2024, the Panamanian waterway, which links the Atlantic and Pacific, transported 423Mn tons and expects to increase that figure to 520Mn tons in 2025. International maritime trade will reach 12.29Bn tons in 2023, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
• The main routes served by the Panama Canal are the East Coast of the United States-Asia; the East Coast of the United States-West Coast of South America, and Europe-West Coast of South America. All types of cargo pass through it, from container ships, to refrigerated vessels with fruit, as well as bulk carriers, gas tankers, oil tankers and vehicle carriers.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The Dominican Republic has exceeded 10Mn visitors this year, with over 10,005,800 arrivals as of Monday, according to President Luis Abinader and Tourism Minister David Collado. The government aims to surpass 11Mn visitors by year-end, highlighting tourism’s crucial role in economic growth and job creation.
• In November alone, the country welcomed 881,499 visitors, a 54% increase from November 2019. Of these, 667,450 arrived by air, marking a 44% rise from last year, while 214,454 cruise passengers represented a 93% jump from 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Minister Collado assured that tourism incentives will continue to support the sector’s sustained expansion.
• At a tourism event in the capital, President Abinader and Minister Collado recognized key contributors, including Banco Popular Dominicano and tourism pioneer Frank Rainieri. The tourism industry, which employs over 720,000 people and accounts for 18% of national employment, continues to thrive, with 400 hotels offering over 84,000 rooms and a current hotel occupancy rate of 76%.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Canada's economy grew at an annualised rate of just 1% in the third quarter, in line with market expectations but less than the 1.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada, prompting currency markets to boost bets for a large rate cut next month.
• The increase in GDP came from an unlikely growth in consumer spending and persistent government expenditure but it failed to offset declines seen in business investments.
• The BoC has reduced borrowing costs by 125 basis points since June to 3.75% as the annual inflation rate fell back toward its 2% target and the bank grew more concerned about a hobbling economy. The GDP data, as well as an employment report due early next month, will help the Bank of Canada determine the size of an expected rate cut at its last monetary policy decision of the year on Dec. 11.
• Currency markets boosted their bets for a 50bps reduction in interest rates next month to around 44% from 31% before the data were released.
• Economic growth came below expectations at 0.1%, Statscan said, and a preliminary estimate showed growth was likely to be 0.1% in October. Analysts had predicted month-on-month GDP growth in September at 0.3%. The fourth-quarter number indicates a slower start to the final quarter of the year, which could force the bank to revise its fourth-quarter growth target it projected in October.
• Economists noted that growth prospects do not seem inspiring in Q4 2024 or the start of next year as a looming threat from the proposed 25% unilateral tariffs by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and immigration curbs will gnaw at the GDP pie.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States on Monday launched its third big crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, among other moves.
• New controls will be placed on semiconductor manufacturing equipment needed to produce advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain etch, deposition, lithography, ion implantation, annealing, metrology and inspection, and cleaning tools.
• Additionally, there will be new controls on software tools for developing or producing advanced-node integrated circuits, including certain software that increases the productivity of advanced machines or allows less-advanced machines to produce advanced chips.
• The new rule will expand U.S. powers to curb exports of chipmaking equipment by U.S., Japanese, and Dutch manufacturers made in other parts of the world to certain chip plants in China.
• Another rule in the package restricts high bandwidth memory used in AI chips that correspond with what is known as "HBM 2" and higher, technology made by South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix and U.S.-based Micron Technology.
• Industry sources expect only Samsung Electronics to be affected. Analysts estimate Samsung generates about 30% of its HBM chip sales from China. HBM is critical to both AI training and inference at scale and is a key component of advanced computing integrated circuits.
• The 140 new entrants on the Commerce Department's Entity List include semiconductor fabrication plants, also known as fabs, semiconductor tool companies, and investment companies "that are acting at the behest of Beijing to further China's advanced chip goals which pose a risk to U.S. and allied national security."

(Source: Reuters)