• Moody’s Investor Services (Moody’s) has maintained the Republic of Panama’s sovereign rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook following the completion of its periodic review. This is unchanged from the previous assessment. According to the Moody’s report, Panama’s rating is supported by its strong economic growth, the strategic role of the Panama Canal, and its track record of sustained investment, all of which continue to support the country’s macroeconomic resilience.
• Panama’s economic growth remained at 2.9% in 2024, despite the negative impact of the closure of the Cobre Panamá mining project. Against this background, Moody’s projects a 4.0% recovery by 2025, driven by increased Canal activity and a dynamic private sector.
• However, Moody’s highlighted that the pension system reform, while strengthening long-term sustainability, entails greater fiscal contributions from the State, which could limit room for maneuver on other budgetary fronts.
• Furthermore, the fiscal deterioration observed in 2024, when the deficit reached 7.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and public debt rose to 62% of GDP from 56% in 2023, poses significant challenges for fiscal consolidation. Although the government has shown a willingness to implement structural reforms, including the recent approval of the pension system reform, budgetary rigidities persist that could hinder a substantial deficit reduction in the short term.
• The negative outlook reflects the risks associated with a likely stagnation in fiscal consolidation and the possibility of rising sovereign financing costs, if the credibility of fiscal policy is not strengthened. The rating could be stabilised if the government succeeds in implementing credible measures to reduce the deficit and improve fiscal transparency.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• The United Kingdom (UK), France and Canada have warned Israel they will take "concrete actions" if it continues an "egregious" expansion of military operations in Gaza.
• Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, joined the French and Canadian leaders to call on the Israeli government to "stop its military operations" and "immediately allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza". No food, fuel or medicine had been allowed into Gaza since March 2, a situation the United Nations (UN) previously described as taking a "disastrous toll" on the Palestinian population.
• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by saying the three leaders had offered a "huge prize" for Hamas in the Gaza war. On Sunday, May 25, 22025, Netanyahu said his country would allow a "basic amount of food" to enter the territory after an 11-week-long blockade, but it planned to take "control of all of Gaza".
• The three Western leaders criticised this as "wholly inadequate" as the "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable and risks breaching International Humanitarian Law". They added that the level of suffering in Gaza was "intolerable".
• The statement from the UK, France and Canada reiterated support for a ceasefire as well as the implementation of a "two-state solution", which proposes an independent Palestinian state which would exist alongside Israel.
• Netanyahu hit back at the suggestion: "By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities." He also called on "all European leaders" to follow US President Donald "Trump's vision" for ending the conflict.

(Source: BBC News)

• Despite strong revenue growth, Seprod’s earnings declined, with net profit attributable to shareholders falling 29.4% year-over-year to J$867Mn, down from J$1.23Bn in Q1 2024.
• Seprod posted a robust 31.9% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching J$37.70Bn compared to J$28.59Bn in the prior year. This growth was primarily fueled by the ongoing expansion of its distribution segment, particularly through the consolidation of Caribbean Producers Jamaica (CPJ). Seprod now owns 80.0% of CPJ following a mandatory takeover bid.
• Direct expenses rose by 30.9% (or J$6.52Bn), slightly below the pace of growth in revenues, leading to a marginal improvement in gross margin to 26.7%, up from 26.2% in Q1 2024.
• However, operating and finance costs climbed significantly, rising by 46.8% and 44.6%, respectively. The increase in operating expenses reflects the larger operational footprint post-acquisition, including higher staffing costs, expanded logistics requirements, and increased administrative overheads associated with managing a more complex, multi-jurisdictional business.
• Finance costs were driven by additional debt incurred to finance the acquisitions of CPJ and A.S. Bryden. As a result, operating profit remained flat year-over-year at J$2.39Bn. Consequently, while top-line performance was impressive, bottom-line growth was stymied by increased cost pressures, particularly higher finance costs.
• Nonetheless, the substantial increase in assets underscores Seprod’s expanded scale and positions the company for continued growth if it can realise synergies from its acquisitions. Management remains focused on enhancing productivity, improving operational efficiency, and lowering finance costs going forward to drive profitability.
• Seprod’s stock price has declined by 6.3% year-to-date, closing at $81.71 as at Monday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.15x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 16.0x.

(Sources: Seprod Limited & NCBCM Research Limited)

• The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) is reporting that its Boosting Innovation, Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE) programme has yielded positive results within the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector.
• “We have seen an average increase of 25 percent in sales for the companies that we have worked with and a 15 percent increase in employment, and they have gone on to raise an additional $100Mn in additional funding to go into their businesses,” said BIGEE Programme Manager, Christopher Brown.
• “So, we are seeing tangible results from the investments that we have made over the last five years,” he added, while addressing the recent media launch of the ‘Marijuata’ bottled water at Spike Industries Limited’s Winward Road manufacturing plant in Kingston.
• The objective is to strengthen Jamaica’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and support MSMEs through funding, technical assistance, and mentorship. Under BIGEE, the DBJ has created a Venture Capital Fund and an Angel Fund to provide additional funding options for entrepreneurs. Approximately US$4.9 million has been allocated to the Venture Capital Fund and US$2 million to the Angel Fund.
• “We are diversifying the landscape of financing, not just traditional debt, where you have to go to the bank to borrow money, but other ways of getting financing into your businesses,” Mr. Brown said. Noting the importance of BIGEE, the Programme Manager said that “innovation should not be the privilege of a few. It should be an opportunity for many. We empower our youth, our entrepreneurs, and our institutions to innovate. The effects will multiply, not just economically but socially and globally”.
• Initially scheduled to conclude in March 2025, Phase I of the BIGEE Programme has been extended to September 2026.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government of Bahamas recorded a $58.60Mn fiscal surplus in February 2025, a nearly nine-fold increase over the $6.90Mn surplus posted in the same month last year, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance in its monthly fiscal summary report for February.
• The stronger performance was driven by a 20.8 % rise in revenue, which totaled $292.90Mn for the month, and a slight decline in overall spending, which fell by 0.5 % to $234.40Mn. Tax revenue continued to anchor the Government’s income stream, growing by 14.1 % year-over-year to reach $241.10Mn.
• Value-added tax (VAT) collections rose by $11.50Mn to $103.20Mn, buoyed by increased activity in the domestic goods and services sector. Non-tax revenue surged by 66.5 %, or $20.70Mn, to $51.80Mn, primarily because of higher dividends and surplus fees collected from the banking sector.
• On the expenditure side, recurrent outlays rose modestly by 2.6 % to $220.90Mn. This included a $9Mn increase in subsidies, which totaled $32.50Mn for the month, and a $3Mn rise in the use of goods and services, now at $57.20Mn. Public debt interest payments declined by $2.50Mn to $23.10Mn.
• However, social assistance and pension payments fell by $4.90Mn to $18.30Mn. Capital expenditure also increased from $6.80Mn to $13.40Mn in February. Meanwhile, the Government’s overall debt increased by an estimated $28.70Mn during the period.
• While the monthly numbers showed fiscal improvement, Opposition Shadow Finance Minister J. Kwasi Thompson criticized the broader direction of government spending, pointing to what he called a troubling $9.60Mn cut to social assistance over the first eight months of the fiscal year.

(Source: EYEWITNESS News)

• Venezuelans on Sunday voted to elect a governor and other lawmakers for Essequibo, an oil-rich region internationally recognized as part of Guyana but long claimed by Caracas. The vote marked the first time Venezuelans have elected officials for the territory, despite the absence of participation from Essequibo’s 125,000 residents.
• The election, described by Guyanese President Irfaan Ali as “scandalous, false, propagandistic and opportunistic,” has sharply escalated an already tense border dispute. The vote installed a new governor, six deputies to Venezuela’s National Assembly, and seven members to a regional legislative assembly, all for a region over which Venezuela has no administrative control.
• It is unclear how the officials, once elected, plan on running the territory, which Guyana governs. Only 42.63% of eligible voters showed up. Many polling stations across the country were nearly empty, especially in urban centers. The ruling party, PSUV, led by Maduro, still secured a sweeping victory, winning 23 out of 24 governor races.
• The move is the latest flashpoint in a territorial saga that dates back more than a century. It comes over a year after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared the creation of a 24th state called “Guayana Esequiba” within the disputed territory, following a national referendum supporting the annexation bid.
• Guyana, which has administered the region since gaining independence in 1966, remains on high alert. The country, with a military force of fewer than 5,000 troops, has ramped up defense ties with the United States in response to Venezuela’s aggressive posture.
• Venezuela’s claim hinges on the argument that Essequibo was part of its borders during Spanish colonial times, and it has long rejected the 1899 arbitration ruling that delineated the boundary when Guyana was still a British colony. The stakes in the dispute have intensified since the discovery of large offshore oil reserves in Guyana’s waters, making the country one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers and a future leader in per capita oil output.
• As the territorial dispute heads back to the international legal stage and the political rhetoric on both sides intensifies, the future of Essequibo remains at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical standoff.

 (Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• In a tightly contested vote, the U.S. House of Representatives has approved President Donald Trump’s ambitious tax and spending plan, dubbed the ‘big beautiful’ bill, by a thin margin of 215 to 214 votes. With the legislation now moving to the Senate for a decisive final vote, analysts at Fitch Solutions anticipate its passage in the coming weeks, potentially with minimal adjustments.
• The budget incorporates a combination of tax cuts for social security payments, tips and overtime; spending cuts to key areas such as agriculture, education, government oversight, among others; and spending increases in areas such as defence and homeland security.
• According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill would add US$2.3Tn in additional deficits over the next decade, compared to its baseline projections, which would keep the deficit near 7.0% of GDP. However, this is potentially an underestimate given that the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget estimates that it could add closer to US$2.5Tn. Fitch’s previous long-term forecast anticipated a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit to 6.1% of GDP over the next decade.
• Bond investors have shown some concern about the prospect of widening deficits and increasing government debt, especially given the likelihood of subdued economic growth in the short term. This anxiety is reflected in the rising yields of 10-year and 30-year bonds, which have increased by 50 basis points (bps) and 100 bps, respectively, since early April, largely due to an increase in the term premium. This suggests that investors are demanding higher compensation to hold longer-term debt.
• In addition, the rise in U.S. yields is also pushing up global bond yields, with many markets seeing a rise in longer-dated yields, particularly Japan. However, part of the recent increase in bond yields can be attributed to slightly improved expectations for the U.S. and global growth. This optimism follows the recent easing of tariff rates, which has led to a decreased probability of a recession in the U.S.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

• U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU) next month, restoring a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc to produce a deal.
• Trump had said on Friday, May 23, 2025, that he was recommending a 50% tariff effective from June 1, expressing frustration that trade negotiations with the EU were not moving quickly enough. The threat roiled global financial markets and intensified a trade war that has been punctuated by frequent changes in tariff policies toward U.S. trading partners and allies.
• However, the U.S. president's softened stance two days later marked another reprieve in his erratic trade policy, even if the latest whipsawing in decision-making reminded policymakers and investors how quickly circumstances could change.
• In early April, Trump set a 90-day window for trade talks between the EU and the United States, which was to end on July 9. But on Friday, he upended that time frame and said he wasn't interested in a deal at all.
• Talks have been stuck, with Washington demanding unilateral concessions from Brussels to open up to U.S. business while the EU seeks an agreement in which both sides could gain, according to people familiar with the talks.
• The EU already faces 25% U.S. import tariffs on its steel, aluminium and cars and so-called "reciprocal" tariffs of 10% for almost all other goods, a levy that had been due to rise to 20% after Trump's 90-day pause expires in July. The levy could now increase to 50% in a no-deal scenario, which could raise consumer prices on everything from motor vehicles to Italian olive oil and even hurt demand for French luxury handbags.

(Source: Reuters)

• Food and Financial Services conglomerate, Grace Kennedy Group Limited (GK) reported a net profit of $2.22Bn for the three-month period ending March 2025 (3M 2025). The 3M 2025 profit represented a 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) growth, driven by its Food and Financial Services Segment.
• GK’s Revenues amounted to $44.22Bn, reflecting a 4.4% year-over-year increase from $42.35Bn.
• Notably, its food segment - GK Foods outperformed management’s expectations, with revenue and earnings before tax growing by 3.7% and 8.2%, respectively. This growth occurred despite a challenging economic environment marked by declining demand and escalating trade tensions and was supported by its local and international subsidiaries.
• Locally, GK Food’s earnings growth was driven by Grace Foods & Services, including its retail arm Hi-Lo Food Stores and its manufacturing operations, as strong consumer demand boosted product uptake. In international markets, GraceKennedy Foods (USA) LLC delivered strong quarterly results, supported by improved performance of the Grace and La Fe brands. Additionally, Grace Foods UK and Grace Foods Canada also contributed positively to overall growth.
• In the Financial Services segment, earnings before tax increased across all sub-segments, except money services, which saw a 31.1% decline. The Insurance segment posted a strong performance, growing by 22.9%, largely driven by expansion in its motor and property insurance portfolios. Meanwhile, the Banking and Investment segment's performance was fueled by the growth of First Global Bank’s loan portfolio.
• Conversely, Money Services' performance was impacted by reduced remittance flows and transaction volumes in Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. However, this decline was partially offset by increased market share in Jamaica, its largest remittance market.
• The Money Services segment has been experiencing a decline, driven by reduced remittance volumes. The proposed 5.0% tax on remittance flows, currently under consideration by US House Republicans and President Donald Trump, presents an additional downside risk to the company’s remittance segment. In response, Group CEO Frank James has outlined a cost-reduction strategy aimed at improving transaction efficiency and affordability for Caribbean nationals in the US, particularly through the company’s GK One platform.
• GK’s stock price has declined by 9.3% year-to-date, closing at $71.61 as of Wednesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4x, which is lower than the Main Conglomerate Sector’s average of 11.4x.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica has exported 4.5Mn barrels of petroleum products since the start of 2024, generating more than US$500Bn in export earnings, largely from sales to Trinidad and Tobago – Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport Minister, Hon. Daryl Vaz disclosed. He highlighted a major milestone: a new contract to supply Trinidad and Tobago with both high-sulphur and very-low-sulphur fuel oil, projected to generate J$14Bn (US$90Mn).
• Minister Vas also noted that the deal will further strengthen Jamaica’s energy trade position in the region. Between January and December 2024, the Government, through Petrojam, supplied 11.1Mn barrels of petroleum products to both domestic and export markets.
• “This volume was achieved through a combination of refining and importing finished petroleum products. Crude oil was sourced from key partners, including Barbados, Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador, ensuring a diversified and stable supply chain,” Minister Vaz told the House.
• Looking ahead, Minister Vaz said Petrojam will focus on optimising operations while advancing cleaner energy solutions over the next three to five years. Plans include the production and supply of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD), expanding access to environmentally friendly fuels, and strengthening the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply to support energy diversification.
• The strategy supports Jamaica’s climate change agenda that emphasises greater use of solar energy, improved refinery efficiency, and increased production of sustainable biofuels.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)