• Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as concerns over conflict in the Middle East were offset by bearish demand sentiment ahead of monthly reports from oil agencies.
• Hopes of a ceasefire in Israel's war against Hamas have faded, with negotiations deadlocked in Cairo while the conflict threatens to widen as Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah continue to exchange fire. Though the Gaza conflict has not led to significant oil supply disruptions, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November in a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians.
• Airstrikes attributed to a U.S.-British coalition hit port cities and small towns in western Yemen on Monday. The Houthis said on Tuesday that they had fired missiles at what they described as a U.S. ship in the Red Sea.
• Traders are becoming inured to such attacks, said John Evans at oil broker PVM. "The inventory of oil that might be affected is not lost, it is just delayed - and with the new shipping times being part of the new norm, 'delayed' will eventually not be applicable," he said. "The grind and grind of this war will continue, as will the fall away of its relevance to oil prices," he added.
• The various factors supporting oil prices are being countered, however, by the demand outlook and increasing supply from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). "Bearish demand sentiment and growing non-OPEC supply leave little room for the market to be bullish on oil prices at this time," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil supply to grow to a record high of about 103.8Mn barrels per day (bpd), almost entirely driven by producers outside OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group of producers. The additional supply is from countries including the United States, Brazil and Guyana.
• As for China, the world's biggest oil buyer, crude imports rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period of 2023. However, the imports were down from preceding months, continuing a trend of softening purchases. The market is awaiting demand estimates from monthly reports by OPEC, the IEA and the Energy Information Administration, analysts from ANZ said in a note. "While we believe the estimates will be largely unchanged, any upside surprise will ease demand concerns," analyst said.

(Source: Reuters)

• Supported by higher revenues, finance income and foreign exchange gains, Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS) net profit grew by 8.4% to $277.93Mn (EPS: $0.12) for the financial year ending December 31, 2023.
• Revenues increased by 10.7% (or $187.02Mn) on the back of robust sales growth stemming from its new Evolve furniture line and growth in its SEEK portfolio. Finance income and foreign exchange gains also rose by 1,111.0% (or $3.75Mn) and 395.57% (or $4.75Mn), respectively, contributing to the improved bottom line.
• Gross profit in 2023 reached $982.08Mn surpassing the $836.22Mn generated in 2022. Consequently, gross profit margin increased by 2.9 percentage points, reflecting better inventory management as damages and various losses were reduced throughout the year.
• Due in part to increased administration and other expenses (+21.1% or $84.31Mn) and higher depreciation and amortization costs (+22.45% or $6.75Mn), operating expenses rose during the period. Despite these increases, revenue outpaced operating expenses resulting in a 23.0% (or $60.73Mn) increase in operating profit.
• Profits were however tempered by a significant 96.8% (or $26.45Mn) increase in income tax due to the company being in its 6th year of trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. This means that it paid 50% of the income tax levied on corporations as per JSE rules for junior market companies.
• SOS’s stock price has decreased by 6.4% since the start of the calendar year, closing Tuesday’s trading session at $1.57. At this price, the stock currently trades at a P/E of 13.08x earnings, which is below the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 15.04x.

(Sources: Company Financials and NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest staff concluding statement on Trinidad and Tobago noted that for the first time in a decade, the sovereign is undergoing a gradual and sustained economic recovery. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounded in 2022 and is estimated to have further expanded by 2.1% in 2023.
• This reflects the strong performance of the non-energy sector, which was partially offset by a contraction in the energy sector. Inflation also declined sharply to 0.3% in January 2024, after peaking at 8.7% in December 2022, mainly due to declining food and imported goods inflation.
• In terms of fiscal discipline, the fiscal balance in FY 2023 was broadly in line with the budget. The overall fiscal deficit is estimated at 1.1% of GDP in FY2023, 0.2 percentage points better than initially budgeted. Higher non-energy revenue and lower than budgeted capital expenditure were the main contributors to the better than expected deficit.
• Central government debt increased to 54.3% of GDP in FY2023 (from 50.7% of GDP in FY2022) and public debt reached 70.9% of GDP in FY2023 (from 67.0% of GDP in FY2022). On a positive note, public financial buffers remained strong with total assets in the Heritage and Stabilization Fund at US$5.5Bn (19.2% of GDP) by end-FY2023.
• Going forward, economic growth is projected to gain momentum. Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2024, supported by the non-energy sector and new energy projects coming upstream, which will help offset the structural decline in energy production. 
• The Fund views the FY 2024 budget envelope as appropriate to support the domestic recovery and address infrastructure needs. However, IMF staff estimates the fiscal deficit will widen to 2.7% of GDP in FY2024, reflecting lower energy revenues due to declining prices and domestic production, increased capital spending, and a higher wage bill, due to the long-standing public wage settlement with some unions. 

 (Source: International Monetary Fund)

• Brazil's consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in February, reaching the highest monthly figure in one year driven by increased education prices, government statistics agency IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) said on Tuesday, March 12.
• Inflation, measured by the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price) index, was at 0.83% last month, while economists polled by Reuters expected 0.78%. This monthly figure was the highest since February last year, when it had registered inflation of 0.84%.
• Education prices rose 4.98% in the month and was responsible for 0.29 percentage points of the data, as schools and universities hike tuition fees at the start of the year. Food and beverage prices also contributed to the results, IBGE said.

• Notwithstanding, the 12-month headline inflation came in at 4.50%, slowing down from the 4.51% registered in January, but above the 4.44% expected by economists.

• The monetary policy committee of Brazil's central bank will meet next week to set its benchmark interest rate, which currently stands at 11.25%, after the authority kicked off its easing cycle in August with a 50-basis-point cut after nearly a year of unchanged rates at a six-year high of 13.75%.
• "There's not enough in this inflation release to make the central bank rethink the 50 bps cuts that it has signalled at the meeting next week and the subsequent meeting in May," said William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Capital Economists. "But if core inflation remains elevated, we think Copom will shift to smaller 25 bps cuts around mid-year," he added.

 (Source: Reuters)

• British wages excluding bonuses grew at their slowest pace since October 2022 while the unemployment rate edged up unexpectedly, according to data, which may slightly ease the Bank of England's inflation worries.
• Regular wage growth dropped to 6.1% in the three months to January from 6.2% in the final quarter of 2023, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had expected another reading of 6.2%. However, falling inflation means that in real terms, pay was up by 2.0% compared with a year earlier, the fastest growth since September 2021.
• The BoE is watching wage growth to gauge underlying inflation pressures as it considers when to cut interest rates. "Today's data are unlikely to warrant a major policy shift from the Bank of England, particularly with pay growth still robust and continued worries it could lead to a persistence in price pressures," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.
• "However, we expect the labour market to weaken in the coming months, which should reduce momentum in wage growth and raise the prospect of interest rate cuts from the summer onwards."
• The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, reversing a dip in the final quarter of 2023 when it touched an 11-month low, although the statistics office is still overhauling its survey.
• On Monday, it said there was more uncertainty than usual about the unemployment rate, equivalent to around 0.1 percentage point in either direction, due to a problem with analyzing labour data from Northern Ireland.
• Growth in total pay - which includes more volatile bonus payments - slowed to 5.6% from 5.8%, also a bigger drop than expected and the lowest since the three months to July 2022.

(Source: Reuters)

• In a strategic move to tap into burgeoning demand in the Guyanese market, FosRich Company Limited has successfully secured $900Mn through a bond offering orchestrated by JN Fund Managers.
• The funds from the bond issuance is earmarked to bolster FosRich’s operations in Guyana, where the company aims to cater to the surging demand for PVC pipes and electric transformer repairs. With Guyana embarking on an ambitious infrastructure development agenda, FosRich is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the country’s robust growth trajectory.
• Beyond catering to the demand for PVC pipes, FosRich is exploring additional avenues for expansion in Guyana’s burgeoning market. Leveraging its expertise in electricity transformer repairs, akin to its operations in Jamaica, the company is in advanced discussions with Guyana Power and Light Incorporated to formalize business collaborations in this domain.
• In a bid to bolster its foothold in Guyana’s infrastructure landscape, FosRich has forged strategic alliances with industry players such as Huawei and China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC). These partnerships entail the implementation of solar projects and the provision of essential supplies for infrastructure development initiatives, including the renovation of key transportation hubs and the construction of vital bridges.
• As FosRich embarks on its expansion journey in Guyana, fueled by the recent bond raise, the company remains poised to seize emerging opportunities and contribute to the country’s dynamic economic landscape.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Express Catering Limited (ECL), issuer of the invitation for subscription of Senior Unsecured Bonds Due 2027 made subject to a prospectus dated January 31, 2024, announces that the basis of allotment has been determined in accordance with the terms and conditions set out in the Prospectus.
• The allocation is as follows: All Applicants who successfully completed their applications for the Senior Unsecured Bonds Due 2027 by 4:30 pm on Friday, March 1, 2024, will receive full allotment of their subscription on a first come, first served basis.

(Source: JSE)

• The Caribbean Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank Group (IDB Group) endorsed the “One Caribbean” programme, a comprehensive framework designed to support enhancing living standards across the Caribbean region.
• The programme focuses on four pillars: climate adaptation, disaster risk management and resilience; citizen security; private sector engagement; and food security, as well as two cross-cutting areas, strengthening institutions and facilitating digital transformation.
• The signing of this endorsement statement took place during the IDB and IDB Invest Annual Meetings in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The signatories included economic and financial leaders within the region. IDB President Ilan Goldfajn signed as a witness of honour.
• President Goldfajn said: “Today’s signing is another important step in our over half-a-century-long relationship with the Caribbean and its people. In 2023, we started a discussion about shared challenges and the need to create a regional programme to address these issues. ‘One Caribbean’ is proof that we at the IDB Group are committed to partnering with the region in their efforts to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth with an emphasis on high-impact initiatives. It is the first initiative under the group’s new institutional strategy.”
• By 2030 “One Caribbean” is expected to successfully support the region in increasing access to resilient infrastructure, promoting safer communities, enhancing private sector engagement and productivity, and improving food availability, access, use, and stability. The initiative will facilitate greater impact and the increased flow of resources for the Caribbean with the support of the IDB Group.
• The IDB Group noted that it will deploy all its windows to address inter-dependent underlying challenges, provide mechanisms to increase innovative financing and boost collaboration with partners that work in the region.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• The World Bank approved a $350Mn loan for Costa Rica to fund infrastructure and climate and disaster resilience projects.
• The program is intended to fund investments in critical infrastructure for flood control and slope stabilisation, as well as the reconstruction of bridges and roads damaged by weather-related disasters.
• Costa Rica "remains highly exposed to extreme weather events and natural hazards, which increase the impact of these risks," the country's finance minister, Nogui Acosta, said in a statement from the World Bank.
• "This project is aligned with the country's strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change and will support our priority of investing in resilient infrastructure and services to protect people living in the most vulnerable areas," Acosta added.

 (Source: Reuters)

• President Joe Biden outlined a $7.3Tn budget proposal as part of his vision for a potential second term, presenting it as a key tool for demonstrating his economic competency compared to his predecessor, Donald Trump.
• Biden proposes a significant tax increase, targeting corporations and high-income individuals to generate trillions in revenue. The goal is to address the budget deficit and finance new programs designed to assist lower-income individuals in managing challenges such as high housing and childcare costs.
• The 2025 fiscal year budget includes specific measures like raising the corporate income tax rate from 21.0% to 28.0%, instituting a minimum tax on individuals with wealth exceeding $100Mn, and allowing the government to negotiate drug costs.
• Additionally, the budget allocates funds for crucial social programs, such as reinstating child tax credits, supporting childcare initiatives, investing $258Bn in home construction, providing 12 weeks of paid family leave, and allocating resources to law enforcement.
• However, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson swiftly rejects Biden's proposed budget, characterising it as reflective of an "insatiable appetite for reckless spending" and a "disregard for fiscal responsibility." This reflects the broader political divide on budgetary issues.
• Despite Biden's efforts to showcase his economic vision, public skepticism persists. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 40.0% of Americans believe Trump would handle the economy better, compared to 31.0% favouring Biden.
• The proposed budget aims to raise tax receipts by $4.951Tn over a decade, with criticism from some quarters asserting that it falls short in addressing deficit and debt concerns, highlighting the ongoing political and economic challenges.

 (Source: Reuters)