• The risk of snap elections in Italy is rising this morning as talks between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and center-left Democratic Party do not seem to be going well.
• Both sides have until tomorrow evening to show President Sergio Mattarella that they have a solid parliamentary majority and have agreed on a program for the government for the next four years.
• Elsewhere in Europe, the second reading of German second-quarter GDP showed that a collapse in exports is weighing enough on the country’s economy to push it to the brink of recession.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• WISYNCO reported a 27.8% increase in unaudited net profit to $2.93Bn (EPS: $0.78) for the year ended June 30, 2019. This outturn was driven by an increase in sales volumes that resulted in a 16.9% expansion of revenue.  In particular, for the fourth quarter, the company saw a greater percentage increase in sales of existing third party products within its portfolio.
• Despite the increase in revenues, management states that some challenges were experienced in the fourth quarter that resulted in a slightly lower gross profit margin for the period, moving from 37.2% in 2018 to 36.7% in 2019.
• Nevertheless, the company has implemented initiatives that it believes will improve the gross profit margin in the near term. Overall, WISYNCO’s cost of operation was fairly well-maintained, as the net profit margin grew by 90 bps to close the year at 10.2%.
• The stock has advanced by 121.8% YTD and currently trades at a P/E of 31.12x earnings. This is above the main market manufacturing and distribution sector average of 20.27x earnings as of Monday, August 20^th

(Source: Wisynco Financials)

• Knutsford Express reported a net profit of $224.77Mn (EPS: $0.38) for the financial year ending May 31, 2019, representing a 6.1% increase relative to the $177.58Mn (EPS: $0.36) earned last year.
• This improvement was supported by a 23.8% growth in revenue along with an increase in finance income (267.1%) due to unrealized foreign exchange gains.
• Knutsford Express stock price has declined 14.2% YTD and currently trades at a P/E of 29.34x earnings which is slightly above the junior market average of 27.26x.

(Source: KEX Financials)

• TPHLTT's results through June of this year show strong growth which reflects the company's corporate reorganization into a pure E&P company and the new management focus on profitability. Management mentioned in the results releases that TPHLTT "exceeded all its financial and operational targets."
• For the first nine months of the 2019 fiscal year (last 3 quarters ending June '19) revenues were $1.30Bn and EBITDA was $255.00Mn, which annualized indicates a $340.00Mn EBITDA with a 19.0% margin.  This results in net leverage of about 5x and estimated interest coverage at between 2.7x-3.0x.
• The company's release indicates that production grew sequentially every month since the beginning of the year, reflecting new management efforts to increase operating efficiency. TPHLTT also said that it signed an MOU with Shell to develop its offshore oil reserves, among other activities.
• The TPHLTT '26s entered the EMBIGD index in August, which should increase its investor base given its high coupon, government ownership, and  'Ba3/BB' ratings. 

(Source: OPCO)

• Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (St. Vincent) will see moderate real GDP growth in the coming quarters as tourism arrivals increase and the government boosts current and capital spending.
• However, the economy will remain vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes and a growth slowdown in developed markets, which would likely undermine tourism activity.
• Fitch maintains its real GDP growth forecasts of 2.3% y-o-y for 2019 and 2.4% in 2020, an uptick from 2018's estimated 2.1% expansion. 

(Source: Fitch)

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his first public attempt to renegotiate his predecessor’s agreement on the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union by focusing on the intractable problem of the Irish Border. 
• There seems to be little hope for a breakthrough in negotiations as the government plans a publicity blitz aimed at preparing the public for a no-deal exit.
• Johnson is to meet the leaders of Germany and France in their capitals this week before going to the Group of Seven summit.
• The pound unwound some recent gains to trade under $1.21 this morning. 

(Source:  Bloomberg)

• Europe has a lot at stake  ensuring the 2019 Group of Seven summit doesn’t end badly like last year’s gathering in Canada.
• Europeans worry that Trump will turn his tariffs on them as he has on China. While trade isn’t on the G-7 agenda, it’s almost certain to be a pressure point.
• The EU is braced for the WTO giving the U.S. the green light for levies on as much as $7Bn of EU goods after a ruling on illegal aircraft subsidies.
• Trump is weighing whether to impose tariffs on auto imports, and a decision could come by mid-November. Doing so would spark retaliation from Brussels and pummel a German economy already on a brink of a recession.
• All this amounts to a big test for French President Emmanuel Macron as he tries to maintain G-7 peace at a time of trade stress and steady a global economy wobbling because of it.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Oil is headed for its first weekly gain in three, but it certainly wasn’t spared from the market’s wild ride in recent days. The saga of an Iranian oil tanker caught in a spat between the U.S. and the U.K., trade war headlines, rising stockpiles and weakening global demand have all assailed the commodity.
• Meanwhile, Bloomberg data shows Russian oil companies raked in at least $905 million in additional revenues since November because U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have boosted demand for their particular brand of crude.
• And from black gold to gold gold: Investor angst is leading futures on the precious metal to a sixth weekly gain, their best streak in three years. And did you know the gold vault that floods when breached by bandits in Netflix’s La Casa de Papel is a real thing?

(Source: Bloomberg)

• At the tail end of a wild week in markets, it’s back to Fed watch. As the debate rages over whether the fresh inversions of the yield curve signal recession, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard threw cold water on speculation the central bank would call an emergency gathering ahead of the Sept. 17-18 meeting.
• Chairman Jerome Powell may shed some light on how he sees things at Jackson Hole next week, potentially saying “I told you so” as solid data rolls in.
• Minutes of the July policy meeting Wednesday will also offer insight into last month’s decision to cut rates for the first time since the crisis.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Panama will see moderate economic activity growth in the coming quarters as on-going US-China trade tensions and slowing global growth limit demand for Panamanian exports.
• However, Panama's commitment to infrastructure development and business-friendly economic policies will support the construction industry and drive foreign investment.
• Fitch has revised down its 2019 and 2020 real GDP growth forecasts to 4.3% y-o-y and 4.5%, from 4.8% and 4.7% previously, to reflect the increasing risks to global growth.

(Source: Fitch)