• New data shows that while international visitor arrival numbers in Mexico were down compared to pre-pandemic levels, those who did enter the country in July spent more money than they did in 2019. 
• According to Mexico News Daily, Mexico’s national statistics agency Inegi announced that an estimated 3.38 million international visitors came to Mexico in July 2021, a 19% decline from the 4.16 million foreign arrivals reported during July 2019. 
• While the overall number of tourists arriving in Mexico was down compared to pre-pandemic levels, the amount spent by travelers totaled $2.12Bn in July, which was a 6.5% increase compared to the $1.99Bn spent by international arrivals during the same month in 2019. 
• Inegi officials said the average spending per tourist was $1,150, a 15% increase over July 2019. In total, the Mexican government revealed international tourist numbers were up 143% and combined expenditure increased 389% in July 2021 compared to July 2020. 
• This will help to support government revenues and if sustained contribute to the country’s economic recovery. The IMF expects Mexico to grow by 6.3% in 2021 from -8.2% in 2020.

(Source: Travel Pulse & NCBCM Research)

• Although Fitch Solutions maintains a relatively bullish outlook on global growth, it believes that as the global economic recovery matures, several important adjustments will occur. 
• First, as base effects wear off and economies converge back to pre-crisis growth rates, global growth momentum will lose some steam. 
• High frequency indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), trade data, retail trade and confidence surveys point to a deceleration in economic activity from the elevated and unsustainable levels seen earlier in 2021, with some incoming data even surprising (slightly) to the downside. 
• Second, there is increasing evidence of a transition towards tighter monetary and fiscal policy as central banks start responding to higher inflation and as governments roll back their income support schemes while looking at tax increases. Emerging markets (EMs) have been the quickest to act in recent months, but a few developed markets (DMs) have increasingly been sending more hawkish policy messages.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Oil prices rose to six-week highs on Monday as U.S. output remains slow to return two weeks after Hurricane Ida slammed into the Gulf Coast and due to concerns that another storm could affect output in Texas this week. 
• Brent Futures rose 59 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $73.51 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 73 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $70.45. 
• Those price gains came even though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) trimmed its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 due to the Delta coronavirus variant. 
• Hurricane Ida’s impact is lasting more than the market expected and as some oil production capacity remains shut this week, prices are rising on supply not being restored and therefore not reaching refineries.

(Source: Reuters)

• Owing to an increase in revenue, Lumber Depot Ltd reported a 140.0% year-over-year increase in net profit to $71.79Mn (EPS: $0.10) for the three months ended July 31, 2021. 
• Revenue grew by 16.3% outweighing the rise in direct (7.5%) and indirect costs (5.6%). This was largely due to successful efforts to negotiate adequate stock levels and reasonable cost prices for all key hardware items while maintaining fair selling prices to the market.  The company’s efforts to maintain commercially reasonable opening hours and staffing levels throughout the COVID-19 pandemic have also helped to support sales. 
• Curfews, travel restrictions, and new workplace rules have presented risks to its supply chain, have strained consumer and business confidence, and have resulted in increased volatility in exchange rates.  Notwithstanding, the company can remain resilient and management has indicated that it has the balance sheet to allow it to consider a range of strategic investment initiatives.  
• The business has over $390Mn of equity and over $268Mn of cash, cash equivalents, and investments.  It has decided to prioritize projects that allow it to strengthen its overall long‐term market position and drive the competitiveness of the core retail business. 
• Lumber Depot’s stock price has grown 101.4% since the start of the year and closed Thursday’s trading session at $3.11 per share. At this price, the stock trades at a P/E ratio of 11.5x earnings which is below the junior market distribution and manufacturing sector average of 21.6x.

(Source: Lumber Depot Financials)

• The Government has committed more than $320.0Mn to the Ministry of Agriculture’s Buy-Back Programme. The Programme began in 2020 and is implemented through the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA). Agriculture Minister, Hon. Floyd Green has said that this is one way the Government has responded to the negative effects of the pandemic on farmers. 
• There has been fallout in Jamaica’s major markets, including tourism, education, and the health sector, resulting in the vulnerability of its food systems being on full display. Working with partners from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, they have been able to commit millions of dollars through Jamaica’s Buy-Back Programme. 
• In addition to the pandemic limiting markets, there is also climate change, and Jamaica already had pre-existing issues surrounding food security. Minister Green noted that the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries approximates that about 30.0% of the food that we produce goes to waste. This is largely attributed to insufficient storage; challenges with transport marketing networks, especially as a result of deficiencies with our small-scale producers, and a lack of efficient agro-processing systems that can utilise this loss and waste. 
• The Government has expressed commitment to working with stakeholders to find solutions to ensure that they reimagine agriculture and fisheries to make them more sustainable, equitable, inclusive, more resilient against environmental challenges, and efficient in developing value chains.

(Source: JIS News)

• Unemployment in Costa Rica was 17.4% in the moving quarter from May to July 2021, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). 
• Compared to the same quarter of last year, unemployment in Costa Rica has decreased by 7.0 percentage points. However, the unemployment rate has remained relatively consistent throughout 2021. 
• Of the unemployed population, virtually all reported losing their job or struggling to find work due to causes related to the pandemic, INEC says. “Of the total number of unemployed people who were affected, 93.4% indicated that they cannot find work due to COVID-19, and 6.6% stated that they were fired, suspended, or closed their business or activity,” the report reads. 
• Meanwhile, the INEC calculated the underemployment rate — the percentage of employed people who work fewer than 40 hours a week and want to work more hours — at 15.5%, a decrease of 9 percentage points compared to last year. The May-July 2020 quarter represented Costa Rica’s highest-ever unemployment rate (24.4%), corresponding to strict COVID-19 measures. Costa Rica’s unemployment rate has oscillated between 17% and 19% in 2021. 
• Earlier this year Costa Rica entered into an Extended Fund Facility with the IMF to stabilize the economy and ensure debt sustainability while protecting the vulnerable. It is anticipated that the initiatives that will be taken under this agreement to boost growth and improve income distribution, as well as the country’s vaccination campaign will bolster recovery and a reduction in the unemployment rate. However, its weak fiscal position and public opposition to new government measures are still downside risks to this expectation.

(Source: Tico Times & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions believes that the rapid decline in COVID-19 cases and acceleration in vaccinations will support Latin America’s economic rebound in the months ahead. 
• New cases in the region’s largest markets are at the lowest level since Q220, while vaccination campaigns have accelerated, allowing for a gradual loosening of public health restrictions. 
• While there has been notable variation in restrictions by country, the intensity of restrictions overall has been relatively modest in recent months despite the severe wave of COVID cases. This reflects policymakers’ concerns about the economic impact of lockdowns, popular fatigue with restrictions, and recent bouts of instability in markets such as Brazil and Colombia. 
• The agency expects governments will continue to gradually loosen restrictions moving forward, as vaccine availability improves, supporting its forecast for 5.6% real GDP growth in Latin America in 2021.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions has revised down their real GDP growth forecast for the US in 2021 from 6.2% to 6.0%, which now puts them slightly below consensus estimates of 6.1%. 
• They believe that supply-side constraints impacting output and rising COVID-19 infection rates weighing on consumer sentiment will cap growth rates in the second half of the year. 
• That being said, real GDP growth will remain strong by historic standards, underpinned by fiscal and monetary policy as well as strong momentum from the re-opening of the economy as vaccination rates continue to rise. Moreover, Fitch forecasts another year of above-trend growth at 3.7% in 2022.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) will trim emergency bond purchases over the coming quarter, it said on Thursday, taking a first small step towards unwinding the emergency aid that has propped up the eurozone economy during the coronavirus pandemic. 
• After the ECB pulled out all the stops last year as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, high vaccination rates across Europe are bolstering recovery prospects and policymakers have been under pressure to acknowledge that the worst is over. 
• With the economy now on a stronger footing, the ECB said that favourable financing conditions could be maintained with a "moderately lower pace" of asset purchases compared to the 80 billion euros it bought per month during the past two quarters

(Source: Reuters)

• Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, has highlighted the need for the strengthening of engagement between CARICOM and the African continent, noting that “great economic potential” exists between the regions.
• The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AFCFTA) serves as an enabling environment for trade and investment opportunities across the regions. The Minister highlighted that there is potential in the agro industry and logistic sector, and Jamaican companies have already invested in Africa. Opportunities also exist for scientific research, healthcare, technological innovation and digitisation, and tourism.
• There is solidarity between the two regions in addressing issues such as development financing, debt sustainability, and climate change in various regional and international fora while working for deeper integration.
• The African Union (AU) has also provided access to COVID-19 vaccines and other critical medical supplies to Caribbean countries through the Africa Medical Supplies Platform (AMSP). This has been a game-changer for the continent and the region.
• The Prime Minister added that the timely dialogue between the two regions will serve to entrench their platform of bonds and common historical experiences, which have been enriched by cultural, economic, and political affinities.

(Source: JIS News)