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Panama Long-Term Political Outlook Published: 04 June 2019

  • Policy continuity will continue to be a primary strength of Panama over the coming years, as business-friendly policies are commonplace in legislation.
  • Over the coming years, Fitch Solutions expects Panamanian policymakers to focus on increasing transparency and passing anti-corruption initiatives to help repair the country's image abroad while addressing domestic concerns.
  • The government's shortcomings in addressing popular concerns over crime and income inequality will also weigh on its popular support.
  • While public demonstrations over the perceived impunity of officials are increasingly common, opinion polls indicate crime and inequality in urban areas remain the primary concerns of citizens. This situation could weaken the country's mainstream parties over the long term and bolster the prospects of smaller parties with 'outsider' reputations.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

Fed’s Bullard Says a Rate Cut May Be Needed ‘Soon’ Published: 04 June 2019

  • Bond investors are positioned for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year.
  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says a cut may be needed soon to counter trade-war risks. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the bank is prepared to ease if needed.
  • It’s no wonder then that today’s opening remarks by Chair Jerome Powell at a policy conference in Chicago, due at 9:55 a.m. Eastern Time, will be very closely watched for any pushback against the rising consensus.

(Source: Bloomberg)

ECB Under Pressure as Inflation Slows More Than Forecast Published: 04 June 2019

  • Euro-area inflation eased more than expected in May, piling further pressure on European Central Bank policymakers as they assess a deepening slowdown and the need for stimulus.
  • The euro area failed to live up to expectations when the flash inflation estimate for May came in at 1.2%, which may increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to act at this week’s policy meeting on Thursday.
  • There was also disappointing data for the U.K. this morning, with retail sales declining the most on record in May, while the construction industry slowed the most in more than a year.
  • The numbers come as President Donald Trump continues his visit to the country, where he urged his hosts to throw off the shackles of European Union membership and hinted at a trade deal.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Everything Fresh Reports Dip in Profits Published: 30 May 2019

  • For the three-month period ended March 31, 2019, Everything Fresh reported a profit of $301,000 (EPS: $0.04), a downswing of 97% relative to the March 2018 quarter.
  • A significant increase in expenses (84%) was a partial contributor to the fall-off in net income. Administrative and selling expenses were the main contributor to the growth in overall expenses; this line item increased by 97%.
  • The stock has fallen 3.23% since the start of the calendar year. Everything Fresh closed trading yesterday at $1.50 and currently trades at a P/E of 108.11x earnings which is above the Junior Market Distribution sector average of 36.12x.

 (Source: Everything Fresh Financials)

Sygnus Credit Investments Limited (SCI) – Board Approval to Raise Capital Published: 30 May 2019

  • Sygnus Credit Investments Limited (SCI) has advised that, at a meeting of their Board of Directors held on May 16, 2019, approval was granted for the Company to raise up to J$1.2Bn (or USD equivalent) in debt. 
  • SCI further advised that the capital raised will be done in various tranches and may take the form of Bonds, Loans, Notes or Preference Shares.
  • The Company also advised that two senior managers sold a total of 86,000 SCI shares on May 21, 2019.

 (Source: JSE)

Alvarado Building Political Support for Economic Reform in Costa Rica Published: 30 May 2019

  • Costa Rican President Carlos Alvarado of the center-left Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC) will continue to build a political consensus around economic reforms to reduce the country’s fiscal deficits in the coming months.
  • The Alvarado government will also prioritize policies to reduce carbon emissions and improve social programs for poor and minority Costa Ricans.
  • However, higher unemployment and general pessimism among Costa Ricans pose a moderate risk to the government's reform agenda.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

In Rare Release of Economic Data, Venezuela Reports Sharp GDP Contraction Published: 30 May 2019

 

  • Venezuela’s central bank on Tuesday reported a sharp contraction of third-quarter gross domestic product, its first release of economic data in nearly four years by a nation struggling under hyperinflation and migration exodus of millions of citizens.
  • The government of President Nicolas Maduro halted the publication of economic indicators in 2015 as the OPEC nation’s socialist system began to unravel in response to the global decline in oil prices.
  • Oil export earnings dropped to $29.8Bn in 2018 from $31.5Bn in 2017, according to the figures.
  • The economy contracted 22.5% in Q3 2018 relative to the same period in 2017, according to data posted on the bank’s website, which did not provide a full-year 2018 figure. Monthly inflation in April 2019 was 33.8%, while 2018 full-year inflation reached 130,060%, the bank said.

 

(Source: Reuters)

U.S. First-Quarter Growth Revised Down to 3.1% Pace From 3.2% Published: 30 May 2019

  • U.S. economic growth last quarter was revised down by less than expected amid stronger consumption and exports than initially reported, suggesting the expansion was on relatively firm footing before President Donald Trump’s escalation of the trade war with China.
  • Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the January-March period, compared with an initially reported 3.2% and analyst estimates for a revision to 3%, Commerce Department data showed Thursday.
  • Consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of the economy, grew 1.3%, topping projections for an unrevised 1.2% though still the slowest in a year.
  • The figures may alleviate some investor concern that the economy is losing momentum -- highlighted by an inversion in part of the Treasury yield curve -- and potentially help Trump as he starts his reelection campaign.
  • Recent reports suggesting a dimmer outlook this quarter, along with the intensifying tariff conflict, are casting a shadow over an expansion poised to become the nation’s longest on record in July.

(Source: Bloomberg)

U.S.-EU Talks Struggle, Threatening a New Front in Trade War Published: 30 May 2019

  • Ten months after President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed on a tariff truce, very little progress has been made in negotiating a trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union.
  • Trump has been concentrating on his battle with China, while Europe has plenty of its own issues to deal with.
  • In talks in Washington and Paris this month, the two sides again made little progress, leaving the path open for escalation.
  • Speaking of the latter, China has put purchases of American soybeans on hold, bringing an end to so-called goodwill purchases, according to people familiar with the matter.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Pulse Investments Increases Profits Published: 29 May 2019

  • For the nine-month period ended March 31, 2019, Pulse Investments Limited reported an unaudited net profit of $329Mn (EPS: $0.21) up from $83Mn (EPS: $0.16) reported in the corresponding period of 2018. This represents a growth of 26.5%.
  • The 10.2% growth in revenues partly contributed to the improvement in the bottom line. Revenues increased from $313Mn in 2018 to $345Mn in 2019.
  • In addition, the appreciation (46%) of the company’s investment properties for the period also added to the improvement in performance in the period.
  • The stock has fallen 0.33% since the start of the calendar year. Pulse Investments closed trading yesterday at $2.98, and at this price, it currently trades at a P/E of 12.42x earnings which is below the Main Market Real Estate sector average of 23.75x.

(Source: Pulse Investments Financials)