• Grenada will continue to enjoy steady growth over the coming years, driven by the tourism and education sectors.
• Fitch expects real GDP to expand by 3.5% in 2019, after averaging 5.5% y-o-y growth from 2014-2018, as the overall global economy slows.
• Risks are weighted to the downside as Grenada's economy is heavily exposed to natural disasters or a slowdown in the global economy. 

(Source: Fitch)

• Christine Lagarde is set to swap the IMF for the ECB, replacing Mario Draghi at the central bank just as the bloc's economy looks in need of fresh stimulus.
• Investors will likely bet that as a seasoned crisis-fighter, Lagarde will share Draghi’s taste for aggressive and innovative monetary policy.
• German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen was nominated to be the next European Commission head.
• The selections, which must be ratified by parliament, mark the first female leaders for both institutions.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Oil had its worst reaction to an OPEC meeting in more than four years, as a deal to extend output cuts reinforced concerns over a weak demand outlook.
• Futures closed down 4.8% in New York, the steepest decline since May 31 and the biggest drop after an OPEC gathering since November 2014.
• Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned of dangers from rising protectionism around the globe, citing a “widespread slowdown” that may require a major policy response. That added to worries following weak manufacturing reports from the U.S., China and Europe.
• The anxieties blotted out optimism despite Tuesday’s agreement by major oil exporters to extend production cuts for nine months. Divisions remained over Saudi Arabia’s push to target even deeper reductions, with Russia expressing doubts at the end of a summit in Vienna.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• GWEST reported a net loss of $135Mn (EPS:-0.28) for the year ended March 31, 2019, representing a 54% decline relative to the loss of $88.11Mn (EPS: -$0.55) reported in 2018.
• The increase in loss over the period was primarily driven by 157% and 156% increase in Admin and other operating expenses, respectively.
• GWEST has traded downwards (-14.79%) since the start of the calendar year, closing at $1.21 at the end of yesterday’s trading session. 

 (Source: GWEST Financials)

• The Bahamas’ GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 1.6% last year to 1.8% in 2019, supported by tourism and foreign investment in the construction sector, the IMF said in a review of the country. Growth could be disrupted by a slowdown in the U.S. or higher oil prices, and hurricane vulnerability persists. 
• The IMF said high unemployment rate and rising public debt also pose risks to the forecast; Unemployment was 10.7% in November 2018 and public debt rose to 63.3% of GDP in 2018.
• Government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.4% of GDP in 2018 from 5.5% in 2017and is expected to narrow further to 2.3% in 2019.
• The IMF also “welcomed the decisive steps to consolidate the fiscal position” and the implementation of the fiscal responsibility law.
• Inflation is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2019 from 2.2% in 2018; Consumer prices temporarily accelerated in 2018 after a VAT tax hike to 12% from 7.5%. 
• The report also noted that the banking system is well capitalized, but credit to the private sector contracted in 2018 

(Source: IMF)

• Fitch Solutions have revised down its real GDP growth forecast for Mexico to 1.1% y-o-y in 2019, from 1.7% previously, as mounting trade tensions and sluggish US growth sap industrial and investment activity.
• National oil company Pemex will struggle to reverse production declines despite rising support from the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)
• The service sector will remain the primary engine of growth, but sluggish wage growth will likely weigh on retail sales.

 (Source: Fitch)

• The never-ending dispute between the U.S. and Europe over support to subsidy-reliant aircraft manufacturers Boeing Co. and Airbus SE took another turn when Washington added $4 billion of EU goods that could be targeted as part of the tiff.
• Needless to say, the Europeans have their own list of retaliatory measures ready should the situation get more serious.
• Shares in Airbus dropped as much as 1.4% in Paris this morning, with the company calling the whole thing a lose-lose situation.
• One positive bit of news on the tariff front is that President Donald Trump said measures against Mexico are off the table after the country’s response to immigration flows

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• OPEC reached a deal to extend production cuts until March 2020 on Monday.
• The energy alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC partners, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, has been reducing oil output since 2017.
• The policy is designed to prevent prices from sliding amid soaring production from the U.S. which has become the world’s top producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. 
• International benchmark Brent crude traded at $64.48 Tuesday afternoon, down around 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $58.55, almost 1% lower.

 (Source: CNBC News)

• Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) yesterday announced its decision to hold the policy interest rate (the rate offered on overnight balances with BOJ) unchanged at 0.75% p.a., effective June 28, 2019.
• The decision to hold the policy rate unchanged is based on the Bank’s current assessment that monetary conditions are appropriate to support the achievement of the inflation target of 4.0% to 6.0% over the medium term.
• This decision comes on the heels of Jamaica’s inflation rate coming in at 4.8% for May 2019, back into the target range of 4% to 6% after five consecutive months of annual inflation being below target. 
• The BOJ also assesses the risks to projected GDP growth to be balanced compared to being skewed to the downside at the May 2019 assessment. 
• Other macroeconomic indicators continue to be positive. 

 (Source: Bank of Jamaica)

• Economic growth in Jamaica will accelerate in the coming quarters as economic reforms pay dividends and accommodative monetary policy supports credit growth.
• The mining sector will be a key engine of growth as alumina and bauxite facilities ramp up production, supporting forecast for real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.1% in 2019, from 1.9% in 2018.
• Despite improvements, Fitch Solutions expects that structural weakness will limit real GDP growth over the coming decade.

 (Source: Fitch)