• Fitch Solutions expects Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benítez will prioritize improving security conditions over the coming months as the economy begins to recover in the wake of Covid-19.
• Despite violations of the country’s fiscal rule in the wake of Covid-19, it is likely that the conservative government will remain committed to lowering deficits over the coming years and maintaining the existing fiscal framework.
• Paraguay scores a 57.0 out of 100.0 on our Short-Term Political Risk index, largely the result of a poor security environment, a fractured Congress, and factions within the ruling ANR-PC party that will hinder policy formation.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Following the August 2nd declaration of results of the March 2nd elections, Guyana has been removed from the Commonwealth’s watch list after fears had arisen that a rigged result was in the making.
• However, Guyana must prove its effectiveness in being able to convict those who launder money and pilfer state assets if it is to remain off the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) watch list.
• Progress would have been reflected in the country passing the fourth round of Mutual Evaluation tests which are scheduled for 2020.
• According to the Country’s Minister of Legal Affairs and Attorney General Basil Williams, the test is whether [Guyana] would have shown sufficient progress on effectiveness, for example having more conviction for offenses of money laundering, terrorist financing, and the purloining of state assets.
• He also stated that the capacity of the judicial system will have to be developed in order to meet this requirement.

(Source: Guyana Department of Public Information)

• New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rise more than expected in September, wrapping up a quarter of potentially record growth in business spending and the economy, thanks to fiscal stimulus aimed at softening the blow from the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday followed robust data this month on retail sales and the housing market. But government money has dried up and new coronavirus infections are surging across the country, leading economists to anticipate a slowdown in activity in the fourth quarter.
• Core capital goods orders, which have pulled above their pre-pandemic level, were in September boosted by increased demand for primary metals, fabricated metal products, and computers and electronic products. But orders for machinery and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell.

(Source: CNBC)

• Oil prices went into reverse on Wednesday, giving up the previous day’s gains as a surge in U.S. crude stocks and rising coronavirus infections in the United States and Europe fanned fears of a supply glut and weaker fuel demand.
• Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down $1.60, or 3.8%, at $39.60 a barrel, having climbed nearly 2% on Tuesday. U.S. crude CLc1 was down $1.84, or 4.6%, at $37.73 after a 2.6% jump the previous day.
• S. crude oil and gasoline stocks rose last week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed, with crude inventories rising by 4.6 million barrels to about 495.2 million barrels, well above analyst expectations of a 1.2 million barrel build in a Reuters poll of analysts.

(Source: Reuters)

• The September 2020 inflation survey indicated expected inflation of 6.7% for the calendar year  2020, which is marginally higher than the July 2020 survey outturn of 6.2%. The expected inflation 12 months ahead also increased marginally to 7.0% relative to the previous survey outturn of 6.5%.
• The perception of inflation control declined slightly in the September 2020 survey relative to the July 2020 survey.
• Respondents anticipate that the currency will depreciate over the 3-month, 6-month, and 12- month time horizons at a faster pace relative to the previous survey. The majority of respondents continued to believe that the Bank’s policy rate will remain the same over the next three months.
• The Present Business Conditions Index reflected a slightly higher level of optimism while the Future Business Conditions Index illustrated a sharp decline in optimism compared to the previous survey.

(Source: BOJ)

• Consistent with its vision when Everything Fresh Jamaica Limited (EFRESH) completed its IPO, the company has sought to replicate its operations in other islands of the Caribbean region.
• In early 2019, the company began exploring a transaction that would accomplish this critical diversification goal. Now with the completion of the transfer of a 60% stake of Everything Fresh Bahamas Limited to the parent company Everything Fresh Jamaica Limited, the listed company takes this opportunity to update all shareholders.
• Everything Fresh Bahamas Limited is focused on supplying food products to supermarkets and the retail trade in the Bahamas. Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is expected that the company will continue to deliver value to the market and grow further in the near term.

(Source: JSE)

• International investors are piling back into Colombian bonds amid optimism the economy is poised to recover from its worst downturn on record, brushing off risk the nation could lose investment-grade credit status.
• Foreign demand for the local debt hit a record in September, with net inflows of 5.3Tn pesos ($1.4Bn), leaving overseas investors holding a total of about $21.4Bn, according to the Finance Ministry. It marked the fifth consecutive month of increases after investors sold off emerging-market assets as the coronavirus lockdowns accelerated in March.
• While there is uncertainty over whether a second outbreak may cause another wave of lockdowns, Lopez forecasts a 4.2% rebound in 2021. The government expects the economy to contract 5.5% this year, the worst since record-keeping began more than a century ago.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Argentina is considering fiscal incentives to encourage companies to hire workers after unemployment spiked to 13% in the second quarter, the highest in at least 16 years amid the pandemic.
• Labour Minister Claudio Moroni said he’s been working with the Production Ministry to lower some employer contributions. The incentives will probably be aimed at hard-hit industries in Argentina’s least-favored provinces, he said. The administration of President Alberto Fernandez also recently rolled out an ambitious initiative to provide some 3 million workers with training customized to employers’ needs.
• The fast deterioration of the labor market comes in spite of the government’s initiatives to offset the economic impact of the pandemic. Argentina has banned firing workers and also forced companies to pay double the ordinary amount of severance if they discontinue operations in the country. On top of that, the government is paying half of private-sector workers’ salaries to support firms that have lost revenue during the crisis.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• China ramped up purchases of American goods in September as its economy strengthened, though it still remains far from the full-year target set out under its Phase One trade deal with the U.S.
• The monthly value of U.S. goods that China bought under the trade agreement reached a monthly record high of $9.9Bn in September as oil, soybean, and car imports surged.
• That still leaves China’s purchases at only 38.5% of a total target of more than $170Bn for the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Customs Administration data.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The European Central Bank will get much of the evidence it needs this week to justify adding more monetary stimulus as the resurgent coronavirus rampages across the continent.
• While economists and investors do not expect policy action at Thursday’s virtual meeting, they do want a signal from President Christine Lagarde that more support will almost certainly be coming before the end of the year.
• Confidence gauges are set to show businesses and consumers turning despondent as a second wave of the pandemic forces renewed lockdowns. Economic data will highlight falling prices and elevated unemployment, and the sole bright spot -- a strong summer rebound in the gross domestic product -- is already out of date.

(Source: Bloomberg)