• Growth in 2018 was backed by buoyant tourism and construction activity. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.3 percent in 2018, and growth is projected to steady at 2.1 percent in 2019, underpinned by continued growth in the tourism sector.
• The medium-term outlook is positive, but risk factors such as slowdown in the U.S. and other economies, reputational risk in the offshore sector and vulnerability to hurricanes could weigh on growth.
• The effective implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) will bolster policy credibility and ensure durable gains from fiscal consolidation.
• In the near term, however, there is a need for expenditure restraint to deliver the FY2018/19 target. 

 (Source: IMF)

• Senior U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduling more face-to-face trade talks in an effort to reach a deal by early-May that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign later that month, two people familiar with the plans said.
• In an indication the Trump administration is making concessions needed to reach a deal, Mnuchin said that the pact will have “real enforcement on both sides.” That would mean the U.S. -- not just China -- could be hit with penalties if it fails to live up to its commitments.
• Bloomberg News reported Monday that China is considering a U.S. request to shift some of its retaliatory tariffs from key agricultural products to other American exports.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Inflation that’s projected to reach an eyeball-popping 8 million percent this year has left Venezuela saddled with the title of the world’s most miserable economy.
• The embattled South American nation topped the rankings of Bloomberg’s Misery Index, which sums inflation and unemployment outlooks for 62 economies, for the fifth straight year.
• Venezuela and a handful of others in the “most miserable” camp are in a lonely battle fighting high inflation alongside lofty jobless rates.
• Most other countries’ policymakers this year face a very different challenge: a tricky combination of quiet inflation and lower unemployment that complicates readings on economic health and appropriate responses.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Jamaica Producers Group Limited announced that it has entered into an agreement with Wisynco Group Limited to transfer 30% of the shares in its subsidiary JP Snacks Caribbean Limited. JP Snacks Caribbean Limited is a holding company that will own the “JP St. Mary’s” brand and JP’s tropical snack manufacturing operations. JP will hold the remaining 70 % percent of JP Snacks.
• The goal of the partnership is to bring to consumers a wide range of innovative Caribbean snacks and tropical foods. WISYNCO will bring to the partnership, their expertise in marketing, manufacturing and its distribution network. The transaction values JP Snacks at J$2.4Bn and sees WISYNCO investing J$720Mn for a 30 percent interest.
• Jamaica Producers Group will seek to strengthen distribution in existing markets in the USA, Canada, the Caribbean, the UK, and Central America, in addition to seeking new markets.

(Source: Release to the JSE)

• For the three-month period ended March 31, 2019, Mayberry Jamaican Equities reported an unaudited net loss of $157.8Mn (EPS: -$0.13) which represents a considerable loss relative to the $157.2Mn profit recorded in the corresponding period of 2018.
• The primary contributor to the outcome over the period was a loss experienced in Net Interest Income and Other Revenues, which moved from $235.11Mn in 2018 to -$43.32Mn in 2019.  In particular, this was caused by a significant unrealized loss on investment revaluation of $71.8Mn for the period, down from a $176Mn gain recorded one year prior.
• There was also a significant increase in operating expenses, which was up 31.6% year-on-year to $116.1Mn. 
• The stock has fallen 5.40% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $8.76 per share.  At this price MJEL currently trades at a P/B of 0.64x earnings which is below the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.98x.

(Source: MJE Financial Statements)

• Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) assigned a Ba3 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and a b2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Limited (Trinidad Holdings).
• Simultaneously, Moody's assigned a Ba3 rating to Trinidad Holding's proposed up to $425 million in guaranteed senior secured notes and a Ba3 rating to the company's proposed senior secured term loan.
• Both the proposed notes and term loan will be guaranteed by Heritage Petroleum Company Limited (Heritage) and other smaller subsidiaries of Trinidad Holdings.
• Proceeds from the transactions will be used primarily to repay Petroleum Co. of Trinidad & Tobago (Petrotrin)'s 2019 and 2022 senior notes. The outlook on the ratings is stable. This is the first time that Moody's assigns ratings to Trinidad Holdings.

(Source: Moody’s Investor Service)

• The government has narrowed its $185m revenue gap, the deputy prime minister has revealed, as it “keeps a close eye” on its agencies’ spending as the 2018-2019 fiscal year-end looms.
• KP Turnquest told Tribune Business that the traditionally revenue-rich first quarter of the calendar year had helped “tighten” the difference between the government’s actual and projected revenue collection ahead of the upcoming 2019-2020 budget.
• Suggesting this had further boosted confidence that the year-end $237.6m deficit target will be achieved, Mr Turnquest said the Ministry of Finance was closely scrutinizing all ministries, departments, and agencies to ensure there are no last-minute spending binges “where there is no legitimate need”.

(Source: Tribune 242)

• Chinese gross domestic product rose 6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, beating economist estimates.
• The better-than-expected number was driven by March data, with retail sales growth for the month at 8.7% and factory output recording a surprise 8.5% jump. 
• The data comes after authorities in Beijing introduced a string of economic measures to counter the headwind of the trade war. 
• Underscoring how the government and ruling party remain active shepherds of the credit cycle, an incentive program offers cheap loans to borrowers who study President Xi Jinping’s thoughts and help promote the Communist Party.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The European Union published its preliminary list of U.S. goods being targeted in a $12 billion plan for retaliatory tariffs over subsidies to Boeing Co., with a focus on farm products from areas that help from President Donald Trump’s political base.
• The World Trade Organization will ultimately decide the level of damages the EU can seek, with a verdict possible toward the end of this year or in early 2020.
• The EU retaliation plan follows a U.S. threat to seek $11 billion in damages through duties on European goods ranging from helicopters to cheeses to counter state aid to Airbus SE. Both moves stem from parallel, 14-year-old, disputes at the WTO over market-distorting support for aircraft makers.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Fitch maintains its view that the Jamaican dollar will depreciate over the coming months, amid rising inflation and dovish monetary policy. 
• Volatility will remain elevated, as the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) takes a less active role in moderating the FX market. 
• Fitch Solutions forecast the Jamaican dollar to average JMD132.1/USD in 2019 and JMD138.0/USD in 2020, from a spot level of JMD128.9/USD.

(Source: Fitch)