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China Ratchets Up Stimulus, Cutting Reserve Ratio to Lowest Level Since 2007 Published: 06 September 2019

  • One central bank that’s not waiting around to ease policy is the People’s Bank of China, which this morning cut its reserve ratio by 0.5%.
  • The move had been flagged earlier this week when the government called for “timely” use of tools including broad and targeted reserve-ratio cuts to support the economy.
  • With some banks getting an extra 1% reduction, the decision will release 900 billion yuan ($126 billion) in liquidity, according to the monetary authority. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

Tourism Minister Announces New Flights from South America and Russia Published: 05 September 2019

  • Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett has announced new flights out of South America and Russia to Jamaica.
  • Speaking at a press conference to provide updates on industry developments, at the Ministry’s New Kingston offices on Tuesday, Mr. Bartlett said those and further expansion in the island’s hotel room stock by more than 1,000 over the next three months, are projected to result in an average 8% - 9% growth in stopover visitor arrivals.
  • He added that this should also result in a 10.2% growth in overall revenue generated by tourism for the 2019 calendar year.
  • Meanwhile, Mr. Bartlett said rooms being brought back on stream include 790 at Riu Ocho Rios, which reopens this month, while among the new inventory are 500 by the H10 Hotel Group, which will commence operations in November.
  • Regarding the airlift arrangements, Mr. Bartlett said come December 2, LATAM Airlines will commence service between Lima, Peru and Montego Bay, with three flights per week.

(Source: JIS)

NRG Energy Inc. Outlook Revised to Positive On Accelerated Debt Pay-downs and Strong Retail Performance; Ratings Affirmed Published: 05 September 2019

  • NRG Energy Inc.'s business transformation plan has resulted in the sale of several assets that, while reducing scale, have contributed to significantly better financial metrics as debt retirement has been accelerated.
  • S&P is revising the outlook on NRG Energy to positive from stable, as well as is affirming their 'BB' issue rating on the company and all issue-level ratings on its debt.
  • The positive outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that the company's integrated wholesale and retail power strategy, cost-cutting initiatives, and optimization of assets will drop adjusted debt to EBITDA below 3.0x by year-end 2019 (S&P’s ratios are weaker than the company's calculations due to imputed debt adjustments, as well assumptions of lower power prices).
  • The rating is expected to rise by a notch over the next one to two quarters on continued execution of the company's transformation plan and if it meets S&P’s expectation of summer 2019 performance.

 (Source: S&P Global)

Jan.-July revenue jumps 10.1% to US$7.7B – DomRep Published: 05 September 2019

  • During the January-July 2019 period, DomRep government revenue reached RD$390.2Bn (US$7.7Bn), including RD$378Mn in donations, a 10.1% jump over the same period of 2018, with an additional RD$35.8Bn.
  • General Directorate of Tax Policy and Legislation of the Ministry of Finance reported on this in a statement on Tuesday, where he detailed that the General Directorate of Internal Taxes raised $287.7Bn pesos, representing an increase of 10.5% compared to 2018.
  • The General Directorate of Customs generated $80.4Bn in tax revenue, that is, 6.3% more than in 2018; the National Treasury received $21.7Bn, which represents an additional 20% than in the first seven months of last year.

(Source: Dominican Today)

Talk About Talks Published: 05 September 2019

  • “Early October.” That’s when the next face-to-face talks between U.S. and Chinese officials will take place in Washington, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
  • The loose plans were made in a phone call with Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
  • The latter’s office issued a cautious statement that ministerial-level talks would happen “in the coming weeks.”
  • All told, it’s enough to boost market sentiment today given swirling fears over a recession.
  • Don’t get giddy: President Donald Trump’s administration is still set to ratchet up levies on Oct. 1, and China’s demand to put tariff hikes on hold during negotiations was a big part of what delayed the meetings planned for this month.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Boxed in Published: 05 September 2019

  • A bill to stop a no-deal Brexit is poised to become law, blocking Boris Johnson’s promise to deliver a do-or-die exit from the European Union by Halloween 
  • The U.K. prime minister’s bad first week continued when support from his party eroded further and the House of Lords agreed to complete passage of the anti-no-deal bill by Friday.
  • Johnson tried to call a new election in a bet he could restore his ruling majority – but lost that vote as well. If Johnson cannot muster the necessary two-thirds support for an election, he will be forced to request a further delay.
  • What can he do? He is set for a speech Thursday designed to appeal directly to voters, employing the campaign skills that helped sell Brexit to the public in the first place.
  • In the latest development, Johnson’s brother Jo resigned as an MP and Minister.

(Source: Bloomberg)

BOJ Governor Says Prospects for Economy Remain Positive Published: 04 September 2019

  • Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor, Richard Byles, says prospects for the economy remain positive.
  • Speaking at the Central Bank’s quarterly briefing at the BOJ in downtown Kingston, the newly appointed Governor said the positive outlook remains, despite “headwinds” and “clouds of uncertainty” arising from the global economy.
  • “Domestic economic activity continues to show signs of recovery, although at a slower pace than earlier observed,” he noted.
  • The Governor added that foreign reserves are at “adequate levels”, the current account of the balance of payments is in a “sustainable position”, the fiscal performance is “strong”, public debt continues to decline at a “steady pace” and market rates remain “generally low”.
  • “The near-term outlook is for real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand at an average quarterly rate of 1% to 2%, which is below the previous projection for a quarterly expansion of 1.5% to 2.5%,” he said.
  • Consequently, Mr. Byles said the output gap, being growth relative to Jamaica’s economic capacity, will be wider than previously expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures “will, largely, remain contained over the next eight quarters”.

 (Source: JIS)

16.8 % Increase in Credit Extended to Private Businesses Published: 04 September 2019

  • The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is reporting a 16.8% increase in credit extended by deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) to private-sector businesses and households over the 12-month period to June 2019.
  • Newly appointed Governor, Richard Byles, says this out-turn exceeded the 12.3% recorded at the end of June 2018.
  • Byles, who was speaking at his first briefing since he assumed office on August 19, noted that the acceleration in private-sector credit expansion in recent months is consistent with previous BOJ accommodative policy actions.
  • These actions, he pointed out, have seen a reduction, by 300 basis points, on Central Bank overnight policy rates for deposit-taking institutions between June 2017 and June 2019.

(Source: JIS)

Dire Short-Term Economic Outlook For Bahamas After Hurricane Dorian Published: 04 September 2019

  • Initial media reports out of the Bahamas indicate that the country’s infrastructure has been severely damaged by the storm, particularly in the northern islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco.
  • While it is too early at this point to update the real GDP growth forecasts for the Bahamas, the data from other countries in the wake of hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 suggest that the Bahamian economy is likely to contract significantly in 2019 due to disruptions to business activity particularly given damage to tourism infrastructure. This would be a significant revision from Fitch’s pre-storm forecast of 2.3% y-o-y real GDP growth for the Bahamas this year.
  • The storm will also impact the political agenda in the Bahamas in the coming quarters. Minnis’ Free National Movement (FNM) government will likely shift its focus from implementing fiscal consolidation measures and passing economic liberalization policies to ramping up government spending to support activity after the hurricane.
  • Moving forward, it is expected that the Bahamas will see a ‘V-shaped’ recovery, in line with those of other Caribbean economies affected by hurricane damage, with real GDP growth spiking sharply in the quarters following the storm due to reconstruction efforts and base effects. However, this outcome is contingent on the Bahamas receiving access to aid in the wake of the storm, given the country’s limited domestic financial resources.

(Source: Fitch)

Johnson in Crisis as His Enemies Take Control: Brexit Update Published: 04 September 2019

  • Now that the dust has settled from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s dramatic Tuesday defeat, it’s time for Parliament to kick it up again.
  • Johnson’s first test in a Commons vote ended poorly for him Tuesday as lawmakers voted to take control of the parliamentary schedule, an initial step toward forcing a delay to Brexit by three months.
  • In response, Johnson made clear that the more than 20 Conservatives who defied him would be thrown out of the party and proposed a motion to trigger a general election, setting up even more turmoil in the months ahead.
  • So what now? Lawmakers may vote on two measures Wednesday -- one to block a no-deal Brexit and then potentially one on whether to hold a general election.
  • Meanwhile, it’s not the prospect of a rough divorce from the European Union that has some of Britain’s most affluent worried -- it’s the rising odds of a victory by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party that is the more worrisome development.

(Source: Bloomberg)