• According to Fitch, Guatemala will see strong real GDP growth in 2019 as low inflation, credit growth and robust remittance inflows support private consumption.
• However, Guatemalan economic growth will face headwinds from political uncertainty surrounding the 2019 presidential election, weak investment and rising energy prices.
• Fitch Solutions forecast that economic activity will accelerate to 3.3% YoY in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, from 3.1% in 2018.

(Source: Fitch)

• There’s a flaw at the heart of central banking’s approach to inflation targeting that’s become a hot issue for the Federal Reserve as it takes a long, hard look at its strategy.
• For decades, central bankers have pursued price goals while saying financial stability risks are better curbed by regulation.
• The contradiction is that monetary policy is often the most powerful fuel for asset bubbles as central bankers hold interest rates low to try and lift inflation that remains weak despite solid growth and rising productivity.
• As central bankers meet Tuesday and Wednesday, they’ll see an economy growing strongly while the core inflation rate slowed to 1.6% last month. That’s well below their 2% goal and continues a persistent undershoot which has prompted a year-long review of the Fed’s price strategy.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Surging crude prices are posing another headwind for the world economy after President Donald Trump’s “zero” pledge on Iran oil sales.
• Brent crude has risen about 33% this year and is close to the highest in six months. While higher prices due to strong demand typically reflect a robust world economy, a shock from the constrained supply is negative.
• Exporting nations will enjoy a boost to corporate and government revenues, while consuming nations will bear the cost at the pump, potentially fanning inflation and hurting demand.
• Ultimately, there comes a point where higher prices may be damaging to everyone.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• GraceKennedy Limited reported a modest improvement in profit for the year ended December 31, 2018. The company reported an audited net profit of $5.6Bn (EPS: $5.05) relative to the $4.8Bn (EPS: $4.15) recorded for 2017 which represents an increase of 18.3%.
• The improvement in net profit was partly attributable to a 5.5% increase in revenues to $97.6Bn as well as a $1.4Bn (+66%) increase in other income. 
• GK’s stock has fallen 5.69% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed at $59.89 yesterday and currently trades at a P/E of 11.9x earnings which is below the Main Market Distribution sector average of 17.6x.

(Source: GK Financials)

• For the six months ended March 31, 2019, NCB Financial Group reported an unaudited net profit of $12.2Bn (EPS: $5.07) which represents an 11.1% decline relative to the $13.9Bn (EPS: $5.63) recorded in the corresponding period of 2018.
• This decline in profit was partly attributable to a 13.7% increase in operating expenses as a result of expenditure in various areas including the implementation of a digitization strategy and improvement of customer experience. The rise in operating expenses was also driven by amortization of intangibles following the acquisition of Clarien, with no comparable charge in the prior year.
• The stock has fallen 3.01% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed at $144.73 yesterday and currently trades at a P/E of 13.4x earnings which is below the Main Market Financial sector average of 17.6x.

(Source: NCB Group Financials)

• Guatemala will see strong real GDP growth in 2019 as low inflation, credit growth and robust remittance inflows support private consumption.
• However, Guatemalan economic growth will face headwinds from political uncertainty surrounding the 2019 presidential election, weak investments, and rising energy prices.
• Fitch Solutions forecast that economic activity will accelerate to 3.3% YoY in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020, from 3.1% in 2018.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions expect that emigration to the mainland US and a declining birth rate will see Puerto Rico’s population continue to fall at a rapid pace over the coming years.
• A worsening demographic profile will create a number of economic headwinds, particularly to government finances and Puerto Rico’s attractiveness as an investment destination.
• The rate of emigration will likely accelerate in the near term as economic growth slows, particularly if we see more delays in the distribution of federal aid.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) chairman, Stephen Austin, has linked record tourist arrivals to the emergence of Sandals hotel resorts there.
• “The preliminary arrivals in Barbados from January to March 2019 showed an increase in visitors of 2.9%, which represent 5,971 more visitors compared with last year,” said Austin.
• This increase can be mainly identified with increased visitors from the UK (+11.7%0, Germany (+8.7%) and the US (4.7%).
• While not saying if the BDS$840 million projects would be canceled, a Sandals official had indicated that they were “fully committed to supporting and working alongside all stakeholders for the future growth and development of the island”.

 (Source: Barbados Today)

•  U.S. economic growth accelerated by more than expected in the first quarter on a big boost from inventories and trade that offset a slowdown in consumer spending, bolstering hopes that growth is stabilizing after its recent soft patch.
• GDP expanded at 3.2% in the January-March period, according to Commerce Department data released today that topped all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey which predicted 2.3% growth.
• This improvement follows a 2.2% expansion in the prior three months.
• The growth pickup mainly reflected a downturn in imports, greater state, and local government spending, and rising inventories that were partially offset by slower consumer spending and fixed investment, the Commerce Department said in a statement Friday with the GDP data.

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• Theresa May’s government will continue talks with the main opposition Labour Party aimed at securing a Brexit compromise, as time runs out before the U.K. is forced to take part in European Parliament elections.
• The premier’s spokeswoman, Alison Donnelly, told reporters on Friday that, “The talks are ongoing and they will continue next week. We will work as hard as we can to try and break the impasse.”
• The Labour Party wants May to guarantee the U.K. will join a post-Brexit customs union with the European Union; May argues that would rule out pursuing free-trade deals with countries including the U.S.
• Without a cross-party agreement, the U.K. looks certain to hold elections for the European Parliament on May 23, almost three years after the country voted narrowly to leave the bloc. 

(Source: Bloomberg)