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Latin America Currency Roundup: Neutral Short-Term, Depreciation Long-Term Published: 17 January 2020

  • Fitch Solutions, is broadly neutral on Latin America's major currencies over the short term.
  • Most units weakened significantly over the last year, reflecting a rise in domestic political risks and volatility in global markets that favored the US dollar and undermined key commodity prices.
  • In 2020, it is expected that depreciatory forces will generally ease, but there is little to support nominal appreciation in the region.

(Source: Fitch)

Ecuador sells first social bond Published: 17 January 2020

  • Ecuador has become the first sovereign issuer to sell social bonds in the international market, placing $327 million in zero coupon notes to raise money for a housing program.
  • The 15-year notes priced at 65.191 to yield 12.25%, down from initial price talk of 12.5%. Ecuador will pay bondholders $400 million when the notes mature in 2035.
  • The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) said it backed the bond sale with a $300 million guarantee that put international investors at ease and reduced the financing costs for Ecuador.

(Source: Latin Finance)

Bahamas Storm Toll: $3.4 Billion Loss and Years of Rebuilding Published: 17 January 2020

  • The Bahamas may need to tap international debt markets as it confronts the steep cost of recovering from the most destructive hurricane ever to hit the islands.
  • The government will probably borrow about $500 million in coming months as it deals with the roughly $3.4 billion in losses and damages from Hurricane Dorian.
  • The government is weighing options for how it will raise the debt, with some combination of an international bond sale and local borrowing likely

(Source: Bloomberg)

UK consumers cut back on spending again, adding to economic gloom Published: 17 January 2020

  • British consumers failed to increase their spending for a record fifth month in a row in December, adding to signs of economic weakening that might prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates this month.
  • Official data on Friday showed sales volumes fell by 0.6% from November, defying the median forecast for a rise of 0.5% in a Reuters poll of economists. 
  • Sales in monthly terms have not risen since July, the longest such run since records began in 1996, the Office for National Statistics said, adding that food sales fell by the most in three years.
  • Sterling weakened and British government bond prices rose as investors increasingly bet on the Bank of England cutting rates on Jan. 30, at the end of its next meeting.

(Source: Reuters)

Oil ends week steady as China growth offsets trade deal optimism Published: 17 January 2020

  • Oil prices edged higher on Friday but were set to end the week broadly steady as sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, raised concerns about fuel demand and countered optimism from the signing of a China-U.S. trade deal. 
  • The world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.1% in 2019, its slowest expansion in 29 years, government data showed on Friday.
  • “A well-expected fourth-quarter China GDP rate (6%) provided little clue for oil price trading on Friday morning, and mounting downward economic pressure will perhaps limit oil’s upside in the mid- to long-term,” said Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets.
  • Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 44 cents at $65.06 by 1014 GMT.

(Source: Reuters)

Revenue Down at Paramount, But Cost Containment and FX Gains Boost Profit Published: 16 January 2020

  • Despite a 3.4% contraction in revenue, Paramount reported a 5.4% increase (or $2.03Mn) in net profit to $39.54Mn (EPS: $0.026) for the first half of its financial year ending November 2019.
  • The result was driven by a 9.1% (or $19.72Mn) reduction in operating expenses, which management credits to its cost containment programs.  The bottom line was also supported by a 268.7% (or $16.6Mn) surge in other operating income which was mainly due to foreign exchange gains.
  • The company’s stock price has declined by 23.2% since the beginning of the year to end Wednesday’s trading session at $1.72. the stock currently trades at a P/E of 41.0x earnings which is above the junior market distribution sector of 23.1x earnings.

(Source: Paramount Financials)

Express Catering in the Green for First Half of the Year Published: 16 January 2020

  • For the six-months ended November 2019, Express Catering reported a 7.9% (or US1.42Mn) increase in its bottom line to US$1.53Mn (EPS: US$0.094).
  • This favourable movement was primarily driven by an 8.8% (US$634.14K) improvement in revenues. Additionally, the company reduced finance costs 5.8% (US$9.77K).
  • The stock has declined 8.9% since the start of the year, and closed trading at $6.06 on Wednesday. At this price Express currently trades at a P/E of 19.5x earnings which is below the Junior Market average of 24.5x.

(Express Catering Financials)

Puerto Rico to get access to $8.2Bn in delayed U.S. disaster-aid funding Published: 16 January 2020

  • Puerto Rico will be allowed access to $8.2 billion in delayed disaster-aid funding by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the island’s non-voting member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • The approval of the funds for the U.S. territory’s recovery from Hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017, which killed about 3,000 people, comes at an opportune time, as hundreds of earthquakes and aftershocks have rattled the island since Dec. 28. The quakes have damaged thousands of buildings and homes.
  • Access to the funds should come as a relief for Puerto Rico after ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service said on Tuesday the earthquakes posed a setback in terms of the island’s economic recovery and ability to retain residents and businesses.

(Source:  Reuters)

Fitch Solutions Macro Research Vs. Consensus: Below Consensus On Chilean Growth Published: 16 January 2020

 

  • Fitch forecast Chile’s real GDP growth of 1.1% y-o-y in 2020, as economic disruptions due to widespread protests and reduced investment resulting from heightened political uncertainty weigh on economic activity.
  • The forecast is markedly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.1%.
  • Consensus has moved downward in recent weeks and will likely continue to do so as higher frequency data prints begin to reveal the extent of the contraction caused by the social upheaval that started in October 2019.

(Source: Fitch)

U.S. Futures Rise, Stocks Fluctuate; Dollar Steady Published: 16 January 2020

  • American equity futures climbed on Thursday and European shares fluctuated in the wake of the signing of the U.S.-China trade deal, an event that helped drive global stocks to record highs. Bonds were mixed and the dollar was steady.
  • Contracts for all three main American gauges pointed to more gains after Wall Street hit records a day earlier. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 did slightly better after tech bellwether
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. projected quarterly revenue well above analysts’ estimates. Morgan Stanley climbed in early trading after results beat expectations. Bank of New York Mellon slipped after matching estimates.
  • The formal signing of a phase one deal between the world’s two biggest economies has put the trade war on hold as far as many investors are concerned. Assuming the detente lasts, traders will be seeking fresh catalysts, most likely in economic data and the ramp-up of earnings season.

(Source: Bloomberg)