• Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed some 40 world leaders at the Belt and Road forum in Beijing, but his speech may have been aimed at a head of state not in the audience - U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Xi spent a large portion of his speech Friday addressing Chinese domestic reforms, pledging to address state subsidies, protect intellectual property rights, allow foreign investment in more sectors and avoid competitive devaluation of the yuan.
• All four are issues the U.S. is addressing in trade talks with Beijing.
• “We will establish a binding enforcement system for international agreements," Xi said, adding that China will standardize all levels of government in terms of issuing administrative licenses and market regulation, and also "eliminate improper rules, subsidies, and practices that impede fair competition and distort the market."

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Fitch is expecting the Bank of Jamaica to lower its benchmark policy rate by an additional 25 basis points at its May meeting, as inflation remains below target.
• Over the longer term, it is anticipated that rising energy and food costs will cause inflation to pick up, leading policymakers to raise rates in 2020. 
• As a result, Fitch has lowered its inflation forecast over the longer term as reforms to the BOJ have seemingly caused inflation expectations to be firmly anchored. In particular, the rating agency has lowered its long-term average forecast (2021-2028) for Jamaican inflation to 5.50%, from 6.00% 

(Source: Fitch)

• The IMF has noted that further monetary easing is needed to restore inflation to the midpoint of the 4–6% target range.
• The BOJ’s recent reduction in the reserve requirement on Jamaican dollar deposits will support its more accommodative policy stance but further rate cuts are likely required, according to the IMF.
• The multilateral agency highlighted that in deciding further policy loosening, the BOJ should carefully assess all incoming data.
• Additionally, the IMF recommends that the BOJ should continue to reduce its FX market footprint, which includes limiting its FX sales in disorderly market conditions.

(Source: IMF)

• A committee of creditors holding Trinidad Petroleum Holdings bonds due in 2019 and 2022 said they do not support the company’s consent solicitation, and are seeking a deadline extension and modifications to the proposed debt exchange.
• The Committee of “large international investment institutions” said deadlines proposed by the company for creditors to accept exchange offer “are unreasonable and do not provide adequate time to evaluate the proposal,”.
• The Creditors are also “concerned about what appears to be a lack of inter-creditor equity” in the proposal and apparent subordination of new bonds offered by the company compared with certain other company liabilities.

 (Source: Bloomberg)

• The Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE) announced improved results in the financial performance of the TTSE and its subsidiary, the Trinidad and Tobago Central Depository (TTCD), for the year ended December 31, 2018.
• The Group recorded net profit after tax of $14.9Mn in 2018, an increase of 275% over the previous year of $4Mn. This was attributed to certain one-off transactions, followed by stronger performance in the value of trades for the year which increased by 11.7% to $1.3Bn.
• During 2018, the TTSE saw its largest corporate bond listing totaling $4Bn from the National Investment Fund Holding Company Ltd (NIFHCL). It also welcomed its first listing in the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Sector, an area of growth it will be giving particular attention to in the coming months.

 (Source: Trinidad Express)

• The U.S. economy’s first quarter is looking a lot rosier than a few weeks ago, but the factors supporting that growth may be more ephemeral rather than a sign of sustained momentum.
• That’s because rising inventories and a smaller-than-expected trade gap were among the main forces pushing up gross domestic product estimates for the first three months of 2019.
• Thanks partly to those two volatile components, a Commerce Department report Friday is expected to show GDP expanded at a 2.3% annualized pace in the period -- up slightly from the fourth quarter and about in line with the 10-year average -- rather than the 1.5% seen in early March, according to Bloomberg’s surveys of economists.
• “It’s a good news, bad news story,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. “If inventories are a big driver of growth in one quarter, then that sets you up for slower growth in subsequent quarters.”

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The biggest threat to President Donald Trump’s hopes for low gasoline prices is his growing entanglement in the politics of OPEC nations.
• The White House plans to choke off oil exports from Iran without triggering a spike in prices largely by getting Saudi Arabia, the only OPEC member with significant spare capacity, to make up the shortfall.
• Yet his parallel interventions in Venezuela and, more recently, Libya could test the kingdom’s ability to deal with further disruptions.
• Crude prices have already climbed almost 40% this year, hitting $75 a barrel in London this week for the first time in six months. If reserve output is exhausted by multiple supply crises, it could surge to levels that hurt the global economy.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the fifth review of Jamaica’s performance under the Stand-by-Arrangement (SBA) on April 22, 2019.
• The Jamaican authorities continue to view the SBA as precautionary and will use it as an insurance policy against unforeseen external economic shocks that could lead to a balance of payments need.
• Reduction in the primary surplus target by ½% GDP to 6½% in the FY19/20 budget will facilitate higher spending in social assistance, citizen security, and infrastructure.
• Reducing the highly distortive financial turnover taxes is expected to lower the cost of doing business and increase economic activity. Tackling governance issues swiftly and forcefully is necessary to enhance transparency and accountability, bolster trust in public institutions, and protect public funds.

(Source: IMF)

• Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are being encouraged to explore the possibility of raising funding through capital market options, such as the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE).
• Entities are encouraged to have a plan and the goal to be a listed company.
• Street-Forrest, speaking at the Small Business Association of Jamaica’s (SBAJ) second regional MSME Conference, noted that despite foreign exchange rate fluctuations, “we have very favourable market conditions, with business and consumer confidence high, a low rate of inflation and oversubscription in all of our Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), which signal an interest in the stock market.”
• These factors are good for business, and the JSE believes that the MSMEs should now become engaged.

(Source: JIS)

• It is expected that Barbados’ economic recovery will remain muted as its government pursues debt restructuring and fiscal consolidation as part of an IMF-sponsored programme.
• Over the longer term, the successful implementation of IMF-backed reforms should boost productivity and growth and lower debt-servicing costs.
• Nevertheless, Fitch notes downside risks to both economic growth and the IMF programme as negotiations with external creditors could break down and a ‘No Deal’ Brexit could damage tourism.

(Source: Fitch)